Coming off back-to-back 2-3 efforts, it’s time to put together a net positive evening with Thursday NHL props. (Unlike a net-positive one, like when Marc-Andre Fleury rubs the goalposts as a sign of appreciation for said posts keeping pucks out of his net.)
We’re armed with a full slate of nine games on tonight’s NHL docket, as well as a bankroll and a VHS copy of Fantastic Hockey Fights vol. 19. Let’s do this thing. Here are our top five Thursday NHL props.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 2:45 p.m. ET on March 3.
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Pittsburgh Penguins: C Evgeni Malkin
The prop: 0.5 points (at Tampa Bay)
The odds: Over -215/Under +165
Earlier in the day this prop was lined at -200 to the Over, and it was ridiculously great value even at that juiced-up number. Now the odds are up to -215, and it’s down to merely excellent value.
Malkin isn’t even on another planet right now. He’s in an entirely different galaxy altogether. In his last 16 games he’s failed to record a point … once. One time. Maybe he got bored and wanted to know what it felt like to be on the Maple Leafs the second they faced any pressure.
Sure, Malkin is facing the two-time defending champs in this one … you know, the same team against whom he’s recorded 54 points in 40 career games.
Ottawa Senators: G Anton Forsberg
The prop: 32.5 saves (at Florida)
The odds: Over -120/Under -105
Things the Florida Panthers love: Autographed photos of Rob Niedermayer. Having summers in Miami off. Firing pucks at the net as relentlessly as the American Gladiators tennis ball cannon. Florida hogs the puck more, and takes more shots, than any other team in the league. To that point, here are the Panthers’ shot totals in their last three contests: 47 (vs. Edmonton), 42 (vs. Columbus) and 48 (vs. Nashville).
It’s going to be a long night for Forsberg, even though the 29-year-old netminder has played to a respectable .917 save percentage and turned aside 33 pucks against the Panthers in December.
Minnesota Wild at Philadelphia Flyers
The prop: 1.5 second-period goals
The odds: Over -225/Under +175
Like the Malkin play, this one is strictly about finding value despite paying a ton of juice. The Wild are connecting on second-period Overs at a 76.5 percent clip.(Philly, less so at 56.6 percent.) But at -225 we’re breakeven on a play with a 69 percent probability. If Minnesota stays true to form, this should be priced at more than -300. After all, the Over has hit in five straight for the Wild.
Minnesota seems like they flip a coin every night whether it is going to score in buckets or give up goals in droves. Lately, that coin has been landing on “torched,” as the Wild have allowed 34 goals in their last seven games.
Granted, second-period scoring is tricky with the long shift change for each team, and Philly isn’t an offensive force this season. But the Wild should tally at least one, and the way Minnesota’s D has been going lately, the Flyers should be finding twine at an above-average rate.
Montreal Canadiens at Calgary Flames
The prop: 7 combined total goals (alternate total)
The odds: Over 7 +170/Under 7 -230
We’ll get a little spicy to chase a reward that carries less risk than it may seem. For a seven-game stretch from Feb. 12-Feb.26, the Canadiens only let in 14 goals. The problem for the Habs is how their goaltending has been in games on both sides of that date range. And the true Blech Blanc Rogue showed up in force on Tuesday, getting peppered by the Jets.
And their reward for giving up eight to Winnipeg: playing the Flames in Calgary. In their 12 games since Feb. 1, the Flames have landed on or above 7 combined goals in seven of them, with four cashing this Over.
It’s a play that’s difficult to hit, but has a strong safety net on the push. As a bonus, you’re drawing the worst defensive team in hockey. Nobody — not even the expansion Kraken — have surrendered more goals than Montreal (206). Can the Habs slip a couple between the pipes to help us along? Well, there’s the tricky part of the equation. But they have tallied three or more goals in six of their last seven overall, and two or more in nine straight road outings.
Vegas Golden Knights: D Shea Theodore
The prop: 2.5 shots on goal (vs. Boston)
The odds: Over +105/Under -135
Theodore is 26-for-50 to this prop number this season, but lately he’s been staying home more than an agoraphobic with a brand-new PS5. In his last 10 games, the Knights’ defenseman has only collected more than two shots twice, one of which was a seven-shot outburst Friday against Arizona.
So he’s still got it against the worst team in hockey. Against everyone else? Whether there’s an undisclosed injury or a system change or just the general malaise that seems to have infected Vegas lately, Theodore hasn’t been rifling pucks from the point with the abandon he had been as recently as January. And for the record, Boston ranks sixth in the NHL in fewest shots allowed at just 29.1 per game.
