Oof. After closing out last week with a bunch of NHL props winners, Tuesday was a serious stinkburger. Brady Tkachuk’s three pucks on net weren’t enough to clear Over 3.5 on his shots prop. Brad Marchand and Cam Atkinson failed to light the lamp against opponents allowing the most and third-most goals this season, respectively. On and on it went.
But you know how the cliché goes: When you get knocked down, you’ve gotta get back up and try again. With 10 games on the slate, we certainly have plenty of Thursday NHL props from which to choose. So let’s go for that elusive 5-for-5 NHL props hit one more time!
Odds via DraftKings and FanDuel, updated as of 2:45 p.m. ET on April 7.
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Columbus Blue Jackets: D Zach Werenski
The Prop: 3.5 shots on goal (vs. Philadelphia)
The Odds: Over +118/Under -158
It’s not particularly common for a defenseman to lead his team in shots on goal, but that’s the case for the Columbus Blue Jackets. Zach Werenski has 205 shots through 62 games, which averages out to 3.31 per contest.
Werenski posted four shots against Philadelphia on Tuesday and had five against Boston in the game prior. He’s cleared the Over on this prop number in 40 percent of his games overall (25 of 62) and 43.8 percent of his home tilts (14 of 32).
While we’d like to see those numbers closer to at least 50 percent, there’s one stat that makes us feel comfortable here: The Flyers have allowed an opposing defenseman to tally four or more shots in six of their last seven games. The sole exception came against the Rangers, who nonetheless ripped 46 shots against Philadelphia. Ten of those shots came from the New York blue line, it’s just they were spread out among several D-men.
The Flyers got it together a bit on Tuesday against Columbus, yielding only 30 shots. Even with that, though, they have surrendered an average of 37.1 shots in their last 10 contests and 39.4 in their last five.
Trust Werenski here to get some good looks and put at least four pucks on net.
Chicago Blackhawks: C Dylan Strome
The Prop: Score anytime goal (vs Seattle)
The Odds: +160
Since getting the opportunity to log top-line minutes, Dylan Strome has taken off. He has 11 points in his last 10 games after scoring 32 points in his previous 47 contests. Along the way, Strome has made life easier for linemates Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat as well.
Patrick Kane rips one home on the power play. Great net-front presence by Dylan Strome. #Blackhawks pic.twitter.com/lVS6QXA71x
— Charlie Roumeliotis (@CRoumeliotis) April 4, 2022
Strome’s long-term role in Chicago will be a topic of offseason debate. For now, he’s still wearing a Blackhawks sweater, and in that sweater he’s had great goal-scoring success against bad teams (nine goals in 17 games versus foes with a losing record). And they don’t get much worse than Seattle, whose goaltending has been putrid in its inaugural season (and that’s being kind). Philipp Grubauer is expected to start Thursday, and his minus-24.95 goals saved above expected (GSAA) is worst in the league.
The Blackhawks have averaged 3.7 goals over their last 10 games, the highest total of any home team on the ice Thursday. Strome needs to shoot the puck more (two shots or fewer in six of the last seven), but if he fires away like he did against Arizona on Sunday (five shots), he should be able to beat Grubauer.
Toronto Maple Leafs: RW Mitch Marner
The Prop: Score anytime goal (at Dallas)
The Odds: +160
There are fewer hotter shooters in the league right now than Mitch Marner. The 24-year-old Canadian is riding an 11-game point streak, with eight goals and 18 assists in that span. He’s playing the best hockey of his six-year career right now, and sky-high confidence is leading to highlight-reel goals like this:
Mitch Marner Magic 🪄
The Maple Leafs winger pulls off the self-pass and deke for the breakaway goal 🤯 pic.twitter.com/QjZLrd4o09
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) April 6, 2022
Toronto is clinging to a three-point lead over the Boston Bruins in the Atlantic Division. If the Maple Leafs can get home ice in the first round, they’ll have Marner (career-high 31 goals) and linemate Auston Matthews (career-high 54 goals) to thank.
Dallas has allowed the 12th-fewest home goals per game this season at 2.88 per contest. But that average jumps a full goal to 3.8 in the past five. Meanwhile, 20 of Marner’s goals this season have come on the road. He also has 15 points in nine career games against the Stars, so if you’re gun-shy about playing this goal prop, he should find his way onto the scoresheet one way or another.
Vancouver Canucks: RW Conor Garland
The Prop: 2.5 total shots (at Arizona)
The Odds: Over +102/Under -134
Looking at the Canucks’ lineup, there are at least 10 players who conceivably could eclipse their shots on goal prop number Thursday. Two of those skaters — Bo Horvat or Elias Pettersson —should get the bulk of the scoring chances. However, Conor Garland provides the best value, balancing risk with opportunity.
Garland has recorded two shots on goal or fewer in four of his last five games. That’s not exactly a favorable trend, but he’s still averaging 2.65 shots for the season. More importantly, Garland didn’t face Arizona in any of those last five contests. He did, however, face the Coyotes on Feb. 8 and tallied five shots in a 5-1 win. Including that contest, the 26-year-old Massachusetts native has put at least three shots on net 16 times in 28 games against teams with a losing record.
The Coyotes have allowed 40.5 shots per game over their last 10 and a league-worst 36.4 per game at home this season. Add it all up, and when it comes to Thursday NHL props, taking Garland to top his shots number looks like one of the easiest layups of the night.
Los Angeles Kings: C Anze Kopitar
The Prop: 0.5 assists (vs. Edmonton)
The Odds: Over -124/Under +102
Anze Kopitar is lights-out at home. An impressive 25 of his team-high 43 assists — along with 35 of his 61 points — have come at the arena formerly known as Staples Center. He’s also beaten this NHL props number in 18 of 37 home games.
While the Kings’ offense has left a bit to be desired at times this season, Kopitar is still the driving force — despite being an elder statesman approaching his 35th birthday.
Anže Kopitar is turning 35 this year and is still elite. One of the most underrated players of his generation. #GoKingsGo pic.twitter.com/yJn5BgWC2H
— sal 🇵🇸 (@sal_nhl) March 31, 2022
On Thursday, Kopitar takes aim at an Oilers team allowing 3.8 goals in its last five on the road. Edmonton’s penalty kill is at 77.2 percent, 12th-worst in the league — which is noteworthy because 21 of Kopitar’s 61 points this season have come with the man advantage.
Most recently, Kopitar has helpers in five of the past eight games (including the last two). He’s also potted 39 career assists against Edmonton in 58 games. With just one point separating Edmonton and L.A. in the standings, count on the Slovenian scoring machine to pick up his 40th apple against the Oilers in late-night West Coast action.
