Back to the winner’s circle as Wednesday’s Best Bets produced a solid 2-1 effort.
Two winners, one loser … sound familiar? It should, as our Best Bets have posted a (winning) 2-1 record in five of the last six tries. It would be nice to mix in a clean 3-0 sweep every now and then, but we won’t be greedy.
Scratch that. We absolutely will be greedy and strive for a 3-for-3 performance with Thursday’s trio of Best Bets, all from Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. We might as well get in while the gettin’ is good, right?
All odds updated as of 2:45 p.m. ET on May 26.
Best Bets Track Record
Wednesday: 2-1
Year-To-Date: 95-92-2
Bostonian vs. The Book: 28-30-2
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 26-36
NBA Props: 33-19
NHL Props: 6-6
MLB Props: 1-1
MLB Sides: 1-0
NBA Side: Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks
The bet: Golden State -6.5 (vs. Dallas)
The odds: -110
Where to bet: Caesars Sportsbook
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast
Matt Perrault of The Bostonian vs. The Book podcast (which can be found on the Props podcast page) cashed his Best Bet with the Celtics on Wednesday. He’s sticking with the NBA playoffs, siding with the Warriors -6.5 against the Mavericks in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals.
Dallas was able to avoid the sweep with Tuesday’s 10-point victory in Game 4, but Perrault expects the Warriors to seal the deal at home on Thursday.
The 6.5-point spread is fairly large for a Conference Final. But the Warriors have covered this number in all three victories against the Mavs, posting winning margins of 25, 9, and 9.
Furthermore, Dallas is 1-5 SU in its last six postseason road games. The Mavs have failed to keep the final score within seven points in all five defeats.
Perrault believes that trend will extend Thursday, asthe Warriors will punch their ticket to the NBA Finals with a reasonably comfortable victory.
You can find Golden State -6.5 with -110 juice at Caesars Sportsbook.
NBA Prop: F Dorian Finney-Smith (Dallas Mavericks)
The prop: Under 11.5 points
The odds: -114
Where to bet: FanDuel Sportsbook
From: Jim Barnes via NBA Props Thursday
Finney-Smith broke out of his series-long slump with 23 points in Game 4 by hitting four 3-pointers. It was a fantastic (and much-needed) performance, but it was an outlier. Consider: Finney-Smith scored five, 10 and nine points in the other three games in this series. He also scored eight or fewer in the final three games of the conference semifinals against Phoenix.
Perhaps Finney-Smith really has found his shooting stroke and will knock down some more 3s in Game 5 to foil this bet. But the smart play is Under 11.5 points, even if we have to pay a little extra juice.
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BetPrep Prop of the Day: Andrew Wiggins (Golden State Warriors)
The bet: Over 16.5 points
The odds: -108
Where to bet: FanDuel Sportsbook
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com
Thursday’s BetPrep Prop of the Day also resides in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. The folks at BetPrep are going with Warriors’ guard/forward Andrew Wiggins Over 16.5 points against the Mavericks.
Here’s the rationale for this pick:
- Wiggins is averaging 18.8 points in four games against the Mavericks this series.
- Wiggins averages 17.2 points per game this season, which rises to 17.6 ppg at home.
- Given that he’s averaging 15.5 field goal attempts per game in this series, Wiggins should have plenty of opportunities to fill up the scoring column of the stat sheet.
It’s worth noting that Wiggins has scored 17-plus points in six of his last 10 games. He fell short of that threshold in Game 4, but his minutes (31) were curbed because the Mavericks built an insurmountable lead.
Expect Wiggins to flirt with 40 minutes in a more competitive atmosphere Thursday. That would be more than enough court time to put up at least 17 points.
You can find Wiggins Over 16.5 points (-108) at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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