Thursday Best Bets: One NBA Total, Two NBA Props

Wednesday’s Best Bets went 2-for-3. We are grateful for another winning night, but we could’ve — would’ve, should’ve — gotten our second sweep of the week. Here’s how it played out:

In the final game of the night, we needed Golden State’s Andrew Wiggins to go Over 14.5 points against the Denver Nuggets. He had 12 points after three quarters.

You know what happened next: Wiggins failed to score in the final stanza.

We still aren’t sure how Wiggins was named an All-Star starter this season, but he won’t get our vote next year (depending on how long this grudge lasts). That’ll show him!

But enough about the past. Let’s turn to the present: We have three more Best Bets lined up for Thursday — and you can be sure, none of them involve Wiggins (and not just because the Warriors aren’t playing tonight).

Best Bets Track Record

Wednesday: 2-1
Year-To-Date: 68-61-1

Bostonian vs. The Book: 18-21-1
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 18-24
NBA Props: 24-10
NHL Props: 6-6
MLB Props: 1-0
MLB Sides: 1-0

NBA Total: Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz

The bet: Mavericks-Jazz Under 210.5
The odds: -110
Where to bet: Caesars Sportsbook
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast

Matt Perrault of The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast cashed his portion of Wednesday’s Best Bets when the Bulls-Bucks barely stayed Under 217.5 total points.

So what does he have in store for Thursday? Why not go right back to the well with another NBA Under? This time, Perrault is betting on the Mavericks-Jazz Under 210.5.

Perrault noted that the Under cashed in three of the first five games of this series. More importantly, Luka Doncic returned for the last two games, and each of those contests stayed Under the listed number. Actually, that’s a drastic understatement (no pun intended). The Mavs and Jazz combined for 199 total points in Game 4 and just 179 total points in Game 5 (no, that is not a typo).

Perrault believes a similar result will play out as Dallas attempts to close out the series in Utah. With their backs to the wall, the Jazz will be motivated to play tough defense. At the same time, Doncic and the Mavs will attempt to slow the pace (as they have successfully done the last two games).

• Related: Which way is the money flowing? Jim Barnes has the full action report on this Mavs-Jazz Game 6 matchup. 

You can grab Under 210.5 right now at Caesars Sportsbook.

NBA Prop: F Pascal Siakam (Toronto Raptors)

The bet: Over 5.5 assists (vs Philadelphia)
The odds: -145
Where to bet: DraftKings Sportsbook
From: Matt LaMarca via NBA Props Thursday

The Raptors are looking to do the unthinkable and climb out of an 0-3 hole to start their best-of-7 series against Philadelphia. They’ve managed to win each of the past two games, and they’ll be back at home for Game 6 on Thursday night. Toronto is a consensus 1.5-point home underdog — which means oddsmakers believe the Raptors have a 50-50 shot at forcing a decisive Game 7.

Unfortunately, the team is expected to be without guard Fred VanVleet for the second straight game. He’s currently listed as doubtful with a hip injury, and while such injury designations don’t carry as much weight during the postseason, it would not be a surprise if he’s sidelined.

If that’s the case, Siakam should see a significant boost in value as a distributor. He’s increased his assist rate by a team-high +5.0% with VanVleet off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 6.1 assists per 36 minutes. He’s also played at least 43.6 minutes in three straight games. With him getting at least that much playing time in an elimination game, he should be able to eclipse 5.5 assists with relative ease.

NBA Prop: G/F Reggie Bullock (Dallas Mavericks)

The bet: Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (at Utah)
The odds: -128
Where to bet: FanDuel
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com

As noted above, Wednesday’s BetPrep Prop of the Day failed to come through due to Andrew Wiggins’ fourth-quarter absence against the Nuggets.

For Thursday’s top prop, BetPrep is taking Reggie Bullock of the Mavericks to go Over 2.5 made 3-pointers against the Jazz.

The rationale for this Best Bets selection:

• Bullock has made three-plus shots from deep in all five games of this series.
• Bullock is averaging 42 minutes per game in this series, which has helped him hoist eight-plus attempts from behind the arc in his last three games.

Bullock is a career 39 percent 3-point shooter. If he matches that average Thursday and fires off 8-10 attempts (or more) from long range, the math tells us at least three of them will find the bottom of the net.

You can find Bullock Over 2.5 made 3-pointers at -128 juice at FanDuel Sportsbook.