The Chargers and Chiefs played in an exciting barnburner in primetime in Week 2, and there’s potential for more fireworks in their rematch. Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert can and often do fling the pigskin, and the game should be played at a fast pace. Those factors were heavily considered for the following Chargers vs. Chiefs player props.
Chargers vs. Chiefs Player Props: Week 11
Here are the three Chargers vs. Chiefs player props I like for Sunday Night Football.
Austin Ekeler Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Chargers are likely getting Mike Williams and Keenan Allen back this week. Both players practiced in full on Friday but carried a questionable injury designation into the weekend. Regardless, Austin Ekeler was productive in the first meeting against the Chiefs, even with Williams leading the way in the passing attack.
Ekeler hauled in nine receptions on 10 targets for 55 receiving yards. In five games against the Chiefs paired with Herbert in his career, Ekeler has 55, 33, 52, 23, and 55 receiving yards. Thus, he’s gone over 42.5 receiving yards three times, averaged 54.5 receiving yards per game, and has a median outcome of 52 receiving yards in those contests.
The matchup is outstanding for Ekeler’s outlook, too. According to Football Outsiders, running backs have averaged the third-most receiving yards per game (51.2) against the Chiefs. As a result, I expect Ekeler to be prominently featured in the passing attack and to exceed 42.5 receiving yards. However, I suggest waiting until closer to kickoff to bet his over since it seems more likely his line will dip a smidge if Williams and Allen are active than for either receiver to be inactive after their full practice on Friday.
Where to bet: Austin Ekeler Over 42.5 Receiving Yards | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Noah Gray Over 1.5 Receptions (-115)
Mecole Hardman is on the Injured Reserve, and JuJu Smith-Schuster is ruled out after suffering a concussion last week. Nevertheless, the Chiefs are a pass-first team. According to numberFire, Mahomes has attempted 233 passes in neutral game scripts, and Kansas City’s non-quarterbacks have rushed just 102 times.
The Chiefs stuck to their pass-happy guns in the first meeting with the Chargers, despite Los Angeles’s vulnerability against the run. Mahomes aired it out 35 times, and non-Mahomes players attempted just 16 rushes.
Gray had two receptions on three targets in the first meeting against the Chargers, with the cupboards full in Kansas City’s pass-catching corps. The Chiefs’ second tight end has multiple receptions in back-to-back games and three of his last four.
Additionally, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Gray has run 40 routes in Kansas City’s previous two games. The Chiefs might ask more of their second-year tight end in the absence of Hardman and Smith-Schuster, and Travis Kelce could have his hands full with Derwin James. LA’s gifted safety has given Kelce fits in prior meetings. Finally, the Chargers can push the Chiefs and force them to keep their foot on the accelerator. So, I’m taking the over for 1.5 receptions by Gray.
Where to bet: Noah Gray Over 1.5 Receptions | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Kadarius Toney Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Kadarius Toney debuted for the Chiefs in Week 9 and had two receptions for 12 yards on only six routes. Then, his route participation climbed to 17, and he was targeted five times, resulting in four receptions for 57 yards.
The explosive second-year wideout might see another bump in usage after further acclimating himself to the playbook. And, of course, the Chiefs need receiving help because of the injuries to the position.
Fortunately, Toney’s heavy involvement in his limited role provides encouragement for him to go over 50.5 receiving yards, even if he is deployed similarly this week. The dynamic wideout’s 29.4% target rate per route run was elite last week. So clearly, getting the ball in his hands was a priority.
Finally, the game’s pace is optimal for offensive fireworks. According to Football Outsiders, the Chargers are second in situation-neutral pace, and the Chiefs are sixth. Therefore, the volume of plays should be mouthwatering, which is the cherry on top for taking Toney to exceed 50.5 receiving yards.
Where to bet: Kadarius Toney Over 50.5 Receiving Yards | -120 at BetMGM Sportsbook