One of my favorite prop bets of Week 3 is Sterling Shepard over 5.5 receptions, currently at +100 odds.
This is a perfect merger of the volume you look for in a player prop, a weak defensive opponent, and most importantly, positive trends from BetPrep.com.
Let’s break down the three main proponents that make this prop worth betting in Week 3.
Role In The Giants Offense
The first statistics I look at each week revolve around the volume. How many snaps is a player on the field for, and how many targets (or carries) is he getting per game?
It’s simple logic, the more opportunities a player is getting, the more likely they hit their prop totals.
With that established, Shepard is a perfect target in this New York Giants offense.
Through two weeks, there’s no denying Shepard is the main receiver in this group. He leads the wide receivers in snap rate, currently averaging 94% per game, and he’s tops in targets, with 19.
Kenny Golladay is next with both snaps and targets, but he has caught just seven balls to Shepard’s 16.
Clearly, Shepard has Daniel Jones’s attention, making the 5.5 receptions bet a solid one to consider. It helps that he’s hit this reception total in four straight games.
Soft Matchup On Sunday
The Falcons have looked dreadful to start the season, particularly their secondary. Atlanta has allowed the most points per game and the eighth-worst completion percentage.
If you’ve watched this team in either of the first two weeks, you’ve seen a defense get gashed for big plays through the air.
With Shepard’s considerable target share and this weak defense, it’s another reason betting his prop makes sense this weekend.
BetPrep Trends Looking Good
Hopefully, you’ve had an opportunity to test out BetPrep’s offering, which gives you a chance to research every player and tendencies around various props.
On Sterling Shepard’s page, he’s projected to finish with 7.86 receptions, way above the 5.5 line set by oddsmakers.
There are also a few relevant trends that are extremely positive:
- Recorded 6+ receptions in 10 of his last 11 (90.91%) games when he had at least seven targets last game
- Recorded 6+ receptions in 7 of his last 8 (87.5%) games when he had at least five catches last game
- Recorded 6+ receptions in 7 of his last 9 (77.78%) games when he had at least 50 receiving yards last game
Those percentages look good to me, and it’s the final sign to bet Shepard over his reception line against the Falcons.
For more NFL betting, be sure to follow me on Twitter, @griffybets. Good luck on Sunday!