The NFL is finally here, and we get a great AFC North rivalry on Sunday afternoon. I’ll run through my Steelers vs. Bengals predictions and best bets after running through the odds and keys to this game.
We have a similar Bengals team as last season, but the Steelers have changed quite a bit. Mitchell Trubisky is taking over at quarterback with rookie Kenny Pickett breathing down his neck. It’s going to be a tough situation for the starter, but this could be his last chance as a starter in the NFL.
Let’s dive into it!
Steelers vs. Bengals Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | +6.5 | +230 | O 44 (-110) |
| @ Bengals | -6.5 | -275 | U 44 (-110) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 6 p.m. ET on Sep. 6.
Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 11
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Paycor Stadium – Cincinnati, Ohio
- TV: CBS
Steelers vs. Bengals Trends
Let’s take a look at some relevant betting trends for the Steelers vs. Bengals:
- Cincinnati posted the second-best ATS record (14-7) in the NFL last season.
- The Bengals covered only 50% of their games at home last season.
- Pittsburgh struggled with an 8-10 ATS record in 2021.
- As of Tuesday night, 71% of the bets and 68% of the handle were on Cincinnati -6.5 spread.
- DraftKings also reports that 66% of the bets and 59% of the handle is on over 44 points.
- Cincinnati recorded an 8-13 over/under record last season.
- Pittsburgh ended the 2021 season with a 7-10-1 over/under record.
Mitchell Trubisky’s Last Chance
Trubisky is seen as a terrible quarterback in the NFL, but there’s a case to be made that he’s actually been relatively decent. He struggled with coaching throughout his career, and he’s found some success regardless of that.
He posted an 11-3 record across 14 games for the Chicago Bears in his second season. He owns a career 29-21 record as a starting quarterback in the NFL, and he posted a winning record in 3 of his 4 seasons as a starter.
#Steelers have officially named Mitchell Trubisky their starting QB for Week 1.
1st round pick rookie QB Kenny Pickett will be his backup, and Mason Rudolph is the 3rd string.
Steelers kicksoff their season against the #Bengals
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) September 6, 2022
Trubisky sat behind Josh Allen all of last season, allowing him to learn behind one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
Although I’m not entirely sure that Trubisky is going to take this massive step forward, I’m also not entirely sold that he has to. The Steelers made the playoffs last season, and they could find success once again with competent quarterback play.
Cincinnati’s Offensive Efficiency
The Bengals featured one of the more efficient offenses in the NFL last season. They ranked eighth in the NFL in points per play (0.425) in 2021. This is one of the oddest numbers, as Cincinnati ranked only 23rd in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage (54.6%).
Joe Burrow’s efficiency was one of the biggest reasons for their playoff run and overall success. He led the NFL in completion percentage (70.4%). He also ranked third in the league in touchdown rate (6.5%) behind only Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford.
Just Joe Burrow politely wishing opposing defenses ‘luck’ ahead of Week 1. 😏
“You’ve gotta pick your poison.
If you play too high…you’re dealing with Joe Mixon in the run game.
If you play man…good luck.” #Bengals | @WLWT pic.twitter.com/NdkIq3VY0K— Olivia Ray (@OliviaRayTV) August 31, 2022
Ja’Marr Chase (22) and Tee Higgins (17) both ranked in the top 10 of the NFL in 20+ yard receptions in 2021. Chase also ranked fourth in 40+ yard receptions (8) last season.
The Bengals are an extremely young offense with plenty of talent. Can they continue their elite efficiency, though?
Week 1 NFL Props: Justin Bales pinpoints the best NFL player props for Week 1, including a severely underrated running back.
Steelers vs. Bengals Predictions
The Steelers and Bengals are both loaded with talented offensive players, but they also come with solid defenses. The Bengals should slow down the run, forcing Pittsburgh to rely heavily on Trubisky. I do believe the Pittsburgh QB is better than people give him credit for, but I’m not entirely sold he’ll find a ton of success against the Bengals’ defense this week.
On the other side, Cincinnati comes with elite firepower on their offense, but Pittsburgh has a strong defense. I don’t expect them to find as many big plays as last season, forcing them into more red zone situations. Although Burrow and company are likely to progress in the red zone once again, I don’t think it’ll be enough to cover the total in this game.
Pick: Under 44 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook