Red Sox vs Braves Odds, Prediction, Best Bet

The Braves and Red Sox square off in Beantown tonight. Atlanta has a steep climb to catch the New York Mets in the NL East. However, they’re the top Wild Card.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox are the doormat in the AL East and going out with a whimper. Thus, the Braves are sizable favorites on the road. So how should bettors handle wagering on the game? The game preview will walk you through the necessary information before we offer our best bet.

Red Sox vs Braves Odds

Team	Runline	Moneyline	Total
Braves (C.Morton)	-1.5 (+105)	-155	O 9.5 (-115)
@ Red Sox (R. Hill)	+1.5 (-125)	-135	U 9.5 (-105)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10 am ET on Aug. 9.

Slumping Sox

Morton vs Red Sox: Charlie Morton got off to a shaky start this year. According to FanGraphs, through his first 12 starts, Morton had a 5.67 ERA and 4.21 xFIP. Fortunately, he’s since navigated the rocky road and has been cruising lately.

In the veteran righty’s last nine starts totaling 56.1 innings, he’s had a 2.40 ERA, 3.19 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP, and 30.8 K%. Morton has allowed two runs or less in seven of his last nine times on the bump.

Red Sox Offense: Morton’s run of success dovetails perfectly with Boston’s offense cratering. Over the last 30 days, the Red Sox are 26th in wRC+ (82) with a sky-high 26.3 K%. A punchout pitcher like Morton will likely exacerbate their strikeout problems.

For the year, the Red Sox are only slightly more encouragingly tied for 19th in wRC+ (96) against right-handed pitchers. In addition, Boston is tied for ninth in wOBA (.327) at home, taking advantage of their hitter-friendly confines. Yet, since Fenway Park is sixth in park factor for runs (1.123), Boston’s 104 wRC+ at home is only 14th.

Over the Hill?

Hill vs Braves: Father Time gets the best of everyone, and it looks like it’s catching up to Rich Hill. The 42-year-old lefty has had a 4.52 ERA and 4.59 xERA in 16 starts this year.

However, his home and road splits are stark and paint a grim picture of Hill’s outlook tonight. In 26.1 innings at Fenway Park this year, Hill has had a dreadful 6.49 ERA and 4.49 xFIP. Hill has been especially homer prone at home, allowing 2.05 HR/9.

Braves Offense: The Braves are a challenging matchup for any lefty and should have their way with one who looks washed-up. Atlanta is fifth in wRC+ (115) against southpaws. They’re also fourth in ISO (.184) against them.

Thankfully, Atlanta’s bats have also traveled with them this year. They’re tied for sixth in wRC+ (104) in road contests. As a result, I like their odds of laying the wood to Hill and Boston’s bullpen, which has the fourth-highest ERA (4.42) in 2022.

Red Sox vs Braves Prediction

This is a lopsided matchup between teams at different places in the standings. Additionally, they’re headed in different directions.

According to Baseball-Reference, Boston is 9-21 in their last 30 games. Meanwhile, the Braves are 18-12 in the time frame. The Red Sox have also been punching bags for good teams while the Braves have taken out the trash against bottom dwellers. Thus, Boston is 35-44 against teams with a .500 record or better, and Atlanta is 43-20 against teams below .500.

The Braves should easily dispatch the Red Sox tonight. Therefore, I’ll take the small plus line on their run line, covering 1.5 runs offered at DraftKings Sportsbook.

The Pick: Braves Runline -1.5 | +105 at DraftKings Sportsbook

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