At first glance, a game I wanted to target for player props was the Seattle passing attack going against a Tennessee defense that was just torched by Kyler Murray and the Cardinals.
The reason felt sound. Tyler Lockett finished with 100 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1, while DK Metcalf finished with 60 yards and a score himself. Both had four receptions on five targets.
The Titans let Murray throw four touchdowns en route to a 38-13 thrashing, so the defense seems to be a vulnerability.
Then I logged on to our trusted partner, BetPrep, to find prop lines and trends for the Seahawks offense.
Well, I’m changing course. Here are eight reasons why…
Negative Trends: Tyler Lockett
Lockett’s over/under for receiving yards in Week 2 is currently set at 74.5 yards, reasonable considering he just put up 100.
His BetPrep page is littered with negative trends, and it’s why I believe his under is the right call.
- Caught for 75+ receiving yards in 1 of his last 10 (10%) games when he had at least five targets last game.
- Caught for 75+ receiving yards in 1 of his last 9 (11.11%) games when he had at least 50 receiving yards last game.
- Caught for 75+ receiving yards in 4 of his last 23 (17.39%) games when he averaged at least 17 yards per catch last game.
- Caught for 75+ receiving yards in 2 of his last 9 (22.22%) games when he caught at least 1 TDs last game.
Look at these trends, none higher than 22.22%. It certainly appears that Lockett has a bit of a pendulum production streak, dipping down a week after a big game.
Either stay away from Lockett or bet his under in Week 2.
Negative Trends: DK Metcalf
Metcalf had fewer yards last week but still feels like the better receiver overall. Oddsmakers agree, considering Metcalf’s line is set at 82.5 receiving yards in Week 2.
Just like his running mate in Lockett, Metcalf’s BetPrep page has nothing but bad trends ahead of this matchup against the Titans.
- Caught for 83+ receiving yards in 2 of his last 9 (22.22%) games when he had at least five targets last game.
- Caught for 83+ receiving yards in 1 of his last 8 (12.5%) games when he had at least 50 receiving yards last game.
- Caught for 83+ receiving yards in 2 of his last 8 (25%) games when he averaged at least 10 yards per catch last game.
BetPrep also projects Metcalf to finish with 65.03 yards, far below his line.
I want to see positive trends when betting a player prop, and there’s nothing to see for either of Russell Wilson’s top weapons.
Titans Didn’t Let Up Yards Last Week, Just Touchdowns
One last reason my initial hunch was incorrect in targeting this game was the total yardage the Cardinals’ receivers finished with last week against this secondary.
If you were watching RedZone or highlights, you saw that both DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk had two touchdowns.
It’s normal to consider those big games, and they certainly count as such.
Still, Hopkins had just 83 yards, and Kirk had 70. Neither necessarily broke open the game down the field; it was a balanced attack.
I’ll be staying away from the Seattle receiver’s yardage props in Week 2, and I recommend you do the same.
For more NFL betting talk, be sure to follow me on Twitter, @griffybets.
