If you missed last week’s installment of Props Golf, you’re probably kicking yourself. Podcast host Dubbs Anderson told listeners to bet Max Homa for a Top 40 finish at the Wells Fargo Championship. Not only did Homa finish inside the Top 40, he actually ended up hoisting the trophy on Sunday.
Can Dubbs find similar success with his AT&T Byron Nelson picks this week?
AT&T Byron Nelson Picks
This event will be played at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. Last year’s winner, K.H. Lee, finished 25 under par, so this course likely will be a “wide-open birdie-fest” with golfers cruising from hole to hole. For that reason, Dubbs likes golfers who can gain strokes off the tee (more on that below).
The following are edited excerpts of Anderson’s analysis from the latest episode of Props Golf, which he hosts twice weekly. Listen to this week’s first full episode for more PGA Tour best bets and AT&T Byron Nelson picks.
Aaron Rai Top 40 Finish (+155)
Best odds available: +155 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Dubb’s Take: This is where I live every week: In the top 40 market. And this week, I like Aaron Rai at +155 odds for a top 40 finish.
Rai is a young Englishman who has shown capable form and pedigree with multiple wins in the European and World tours. Now he’s bringing his patented, old-school two gloves approach stateside.
Sure, Rai missed the cut last week, but he had a good excuse: The weather was ridiculous. So I’m not judging him on that performance. Instead, I’m judging him on [the consistency] I see week in and week out.
Prior to the Wells Fargo Championship, Rai finished top 30 in three straight events. That includes a cool fourth-place finish at the Zurich Classic. Rai is a capable putter looking for a bounce-back performance, and I believe he’ll have a strong showing this time out.
In fact, consider this the top AT&T Byron Nelson Pick of the Week here on Props Golf. Let’s take Rai for a top 40 finish at +155 at FanDuel Sportsbook, which is much better value than +140 at DraftKings. Remember: Always shop for the best line!
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Will Zalatoris Outright Winner +2200
Best odds available: +2200 at BetMGM Sportsbook
Dubbs’ Take: Zalatoris has been on a nice PGA Tour run despite not getting a breakthrough win. That could change this week — in fact, I’m betting it does.
I absolutely love Zalatoris and his game on a longer golf course, which is the case for the AT&T Byron Nelson. He has three top 10s coming into this one, which includes a sixth-place finish at The Masters, which was his most recent event.
On top of that, Zalatoris is 11th in strokes gained off the tee and second in strokes gained on approach. Both of those metrics will play extremely well at TPC Craig Ranch.
As for Zalatoris’ weakness? He’s 170th in strokes gained putting, but that’s not going to be a huge issue this week. TPC Craig Ranch has bigger, flatter, and larger greens that help shaky putters. The greens overall should run slower.
Zalatoris looks more comfortable the closer he gets to winning a PGA Tour event. That should be the case when the Texas native returns home to a golf course he knows well this week.
Zalatoris’ +2200 outright winner odds are available at BetMGM. You’ll want the better price there, compared with +1400 at DraftKings and +2100 at FanDuel.
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Jhonattan Vegas Outright Winner (+5500)
Best odds available: +5500 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Dubbs’ Take: Looking for a bit more value in your life? Consider backing the Venzeluan sensation: big Jhonattan Vegas, who continues to be one of the Tour’s most underrated players.
While I don’t like him on every golf course, I like him on this one. Distance is a huge advantage at TPC Craig Ranch. You need to have a higher ceiling and be super erratic to make birdies in bunches. Vegas does that and can make it happen this week.
Vegas has three wins to his name on the PGA Tour, but people still sleep on him. We need to remember that he finished fourth (Corales Puntacana Championship), 18th (Valero Texas Open), and 15th (Wells Fargo Championship), respectively, in his last three events.
Jhonny Vegas at 50-1? You need distance at Craig Ranch, and Vegas has it, @mrdubbsie says. The Byron Nelson gets 'em warmed up for the PGA Championship, and Dubbsie has the plays on the new Props Golf presented by @fliff. #ad
📻 https://t.co/Slda6JNna5 pic.twitter.com/bfWd3DxKU3
— Props (@PropsUS) May 10, 2022
That’s three Top 20 showings coming into this one. The form is there. He’s 10th in driving distance on the PGA Tour. You best believe he gives it an almighty rip this week, which should translate to success on an open course like this one.
Go ahead and look toward Vegas as a deep long shot with value at 55/1 at DraftKings Sportsbook. That payout tops Vegas’ odds at both FanDuel (50/1) and Caesars (45/1).
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More AT&T Byron Nelson Picks
Dubbs Anderson offers additional AT&T Byron Nelson picks and other wagering-related strategies in the latest episode of Props Golf, including:
- Three sleepers for outright winner bets
- A pair of potential long shot winners
- Live betting options
- PGA Pick of the Week
- Two Best Bets for a Top 20 Finish
- Fade Plays
Watch/listen to the full episode on Youtube, or simply press play on the video below. You can also find Props Golf on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to your podcasts.
