The Penn State Nittany Lions will travel to Ann Arbor for a Big Ten matchup against the Michigan Wolverines this weekend. Penn State’s looked outstanding this season, recording a 5-0 record thus far. They own two solid wins against Purdue and Auburn, and they’ve only played in one close game in 2022.
Michigan’s also found plenty of success this season. They boast a 6-0 record thus far. They boast wins against Maryland, Iowa, and Indiana, although none are overly impressive. Their closest contest was a 7-point home win over Maryland.
In this article, I’ll break down the odds for this game and you’ll find my favorite Penn State vs. Michigan predictions.
Penn State vs. Michigan Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State | +7 (-110) | +225 | O 51 (-110) |
| @ Michigan | -7 (-110) | -265 | U 51 (-110) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 3:00 p.m. on Oct. 12.
Game Info
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 15
- Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Michigan Stadium – Ann Arbor, MI
- TV: FOX
Penn State vs. Michigan Trends
Let’s take a look at some relevant betting trends for the Penn State vs. Michigan game:
- Penn State owns a 3-2 ATS record this season.
- Michigan’s posted a 3-3 ATS record in 2022.
- As of Tuesday afternoon, 64% of the bets and 80% of the handle were on Penn State +7 spread.
- DraftKings also reports that 60% of the bets and 52% of the handle is on under 51 points.
- Penn State enters this game with a 3-2 Over/Under record.
- Michigan’s recorded an 0-5-1 Over/Under record this season.
Strength of Schedules
Penn State and Michigan both enter this game with undefeated records. Penn State boasts a 5-0 record, while Michigan brings a 6-0 record into this game. Although they’re both undefeated, they haven’t had overly impressive wins this season.
According to TeamRankings, both of these teams rank outside of the top 40 in the NCAA in strength of schedule. Penn State ranks slightly higher than Michigan at 42 compared to 44.
These are two of the best teams in the country, and their success isn’t shocking against lesser competition. Penn State struggled a bit early in the season, beating Purdue 31-35, although it was a road game. They bounced back in their only other “difficult” matchup this season, winning a 41-12 road game against Auburn.
Michigan started the season with three easy matchups. They beat Maryland by 7 points in their first difficult game of the season. Since then, they’ve beaten Iowa and Indiana, who aren’t overly impressive wins at this point in the season.
Overall, this will be by far the toughest test to date for both teams. The only edge Penn State has here is that they have found success on the road this season. Michigan will have the obvious home edge in this contest.
Defensive Success
Both of these teams feature dominant defenses. Michigan is allowing only 0.168 points per play this season, while Penn State is giving up only 0.199 points per play. These currently rank fourth and sixth in the country.
These defenses are versatile this season. Michigan is allowing the second-fewest yards per pass attempt (5.1) in the NCAA this season. Penn State isn’t far behind them, allowing only 5.8 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 11th in the league.
Similar to every other aspect, these teams are very similar in yards per carry allowed. Michigan is allowing the fifth-fewest yards per carry (2.6) this season. Penn State is allowing the ninth-fewest yards per carry (3.0) in the country in 2022.
Penn State has been slightly better on third down than Michigan. They’re basically the same, though. Teams are converting on only 30.7% of their third downs against the Nittany Lions this season. Opponents are converting 31% of their third downs against the Wolverines.
Both of these teams are elite in every metric this season. Their defenses are special, as they feature two of the best overall defenses in the country.
Penn State vs. Michigan Predictions
Penn State and Michigan will face off in a matchup between two top 10 teams in the country. They’ve both found success against lesser competition this season, and it’s time for both teams to show their playoff potential. These teams know each other extremely well, and they should be able to play each other tough.
Both of these teams feature extremely efficient offenses, but I prefer the defenses over the offense in the game. They also will both be looking to slow down the pace of this game. We’re leaning on the defenses in a game that could feature fewer plays than most. In that instance, I’m willing to take the touchdown with the underdog.
Pick: Penn State +7 | -107 at PointsBet
