We have two teams with young quarterbacks in this matchup. The New England Patriots will take on the Miami Dolphins in a divisional matchup. This game could very well determine which team is ready to make the playoffs this season.
Both teams have plenty of potential, although it looks as if Miami is ready to take the next step forward. Is it possible that we see somewhat of a changing of the guard here? Granted, the Buffalo Bills have become the team to beat in the AFC East, although Miami could also jump New England this season.
In this article, I’ll break down the odds for this game and you’ll find my favorite Patriots vs. Dolphins predictions.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | +3.5 | +155 | O 46.5(-110) |
| @ Dolphins | -3.5 | -180 | U 46.5 (-110) |
Odds via Betway Sportsbook as of 6 p.m. ET on Sep. 6.
Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 11
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium – Miami, FL
- TV: CBS
Patriots vs. Dolphins Trends
Let’s take a look at some relevant betting trends for the Patriots vs. Dolphins:
- Miami covered the spread in 56.3% of their games last season.
- Surprisingly, the Dolphins recorded a 2-2 ATS record as home favorites in 2021.
- New England posted a 10-8 ATS record last season.
- As of Tuesday night, 63% of the bets and 64% of the handle were on Miami -3.5 spread.
- DraftKings also reports that 53% of the bets and 60% of the handle is on under 44.5 points.
- Miami hit the under in 58.8% of their last in 2021.
- New England posted a 10-8 over/under record last season.
Is Mac Jones Ready?
Jones is coming off a strong rookie season. He won the starting quarterback job and started all 17 games. There wasn’t much more New England fans could’ve asked from him, as he posted a 10-7 record with 3,801 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions.
Although Jones did struggle at times, he had the look of an NFL-ready quarterback. There were reports in training camp that the young quarterback wasn’t performing well. He followed that up with struggles in his two preseason games in 2022.
"There’s reason to believe (Mac Jones) isn’t fully prepared for Year 2. His new de facto OC has never coordinated offense, his OL has been a mess and he’s had little to no running game throughout the preseason….it was far from the preseason he and the team were hoping for." https://t.co/sg2r058ei9
— Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom) August 29, 2022
The key here is that Bill Belichick never actually shows his hand in the preseason. Is Jones truly as bad as the reports are? Or did he struggle with simple play-calling that wasn’t designed for regular season games? While we don’t want to read into this too much, it is worth contemplating.
There are plenty of question marks surrounding Jones and New England, and we’re going to find out where they stand this weekend.
New Weapons For Tua
Tua Tagovailoa is one of a few NFL players that is criticized regardless of how he plays. The Miami QB posted a 7-5 record with 2,653 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions over 12 starts last season. If you only read the Twitter comments, you’d think Tagovailoa was a losing quarterback who threw a pick on every drive.
Tua Tagovailoa is 3-0 against Bill Belichick coached teams in his career as a starter.
With another win, he’d tie John Elway for the most QB wins without a loss against Belichick (including playoffs). pic.twitter.com/gRTYoDsv82
— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) September 5, 2022
Miami added several new offensive players this offseason. The biggest addition was WR Tyreek Hill from Kansas City. Of course, Hill has game-changing, big-play potential. Cedrick Wilson, Chase Edmonds, and Raheem Mostert are all new players brought in to help this offense as well. Second-year WR Jaylen Waddle should also take a step forward.
As if that isn’t enough, the Dolphins hired Mike McDaniel as their head coach. He’s an offensive-minded coach, and he should be able to take Tagovailoa and this offense to the next level.
Week 1 NFL Props: Justin Bales pinpoints the best NFL player props for Week 1, including a severely underrated running back.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Predictions
This is an interesting matchup with McDaniel making his head coach debut and Bill Belichick having plenty of games under his belt. The Dolphins are seemingly ready to take a massive step forward, though.
If Miami’s offense can find success against a New England defense that is typically ready early in the season, the Dolphins will find plenty of success this season. On the other hand, it’s possible that Jones takes a small step back for the Patriots this season. Miami also features a great defense, and its success could start early this season.
Pick: Dolphins -3.5 | -110 at Betway Sportsbook