The Patriots are more than a touchdown favorite at home against the rebuilding Bears. An optimist would call the 2-4 Bears scrappy, but crappy is a more apt description. Chicago’s on a three-game losing streak entering this game, and the Patriots have won back-to-back games. So, the Patriots will likely win. However, will New England cover the spread? Should bettors look in a different direction for betting action? We’ll take a look at both teams and offer our favorite bet.
Patriots vs. Bears Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | +8 (-110) | +290 | O 40 (-105) |
| @ Patriots | -8 (-110) | -350 | U 40 (-115) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:15 pm ET on Oct. 24
Game Info
- Date: Monday, Oct. 24
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.
- TV: ESPN
Patriots vs. Bears Trends
- The Patriots opened as 7.0-point favorites on Sunday (10/17) night, climbed to 8.5-point favorites on Tuesday morning, and bounced between 8.0-point and 8.5-point favorites today.
- The Patriots are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games following an against-the-spread win.
- New England is 3-1-1 against the spread in its last five games.
- The Patriots are 36-13-2 against the spread in their last 51 games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game.
- New England is 24-9-1 in its last 34 games following a straight-up win of more than 14 points.
- The Patriots are 19-7 against the spread in their last 26 home games versus a team with a losing record.
- The Bears are 2-5-1 in their last eight games following a straight-up loss.
- Chicago is 2-5 against the spread in its last seven games on field turf.
- The Bears are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven road games.
- Chicago is 1-3-1 against the spread in its last five games.
- The Bears are 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
New England’s Backfield Duo Should Eat
Mac Jones should be back. However, Damien Harris’s return shouldn’t be overlooked. Harris rejoins talented second-year back Rhamondre Stevenson in time for a plus matchup. According to Football Outsiders, the Bears are 26th in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Chicago has also allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game (163.0).
Meanwhile, per Football Outsiders, the Patriots are third in Adjusted Line Yards (4.99). New England is also 14th in rush DVOA on offense and 11th in rushing yards per game (131.5). Stevenson and Harris have been impressive. The former averages 74.7 rushing yards per game, and the latter averages 51.4.
They’ve also had stellar underlying numbers. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), among 53 running backs with at least 30 attempts, Harris is 21st in Yards After Contact per Attempt (3.19 YCO/A), and Stevenson is tied for sixth (398 YCO/A), and Harris has earned PFF’s 27th-best rushing grade while Stevenson is tied for 10th. Thus, the Patriots should impose their will on the ground and succeed in doing so.
It’s Not Pretty For Chicago’s Offense
Chicago’s offense stinks. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Bears are 30th in scoring offense (15.5 points per game). Further, they’re 31st in total offense DVOA. Somehow, they’re graded even more harshly at PFF, ranking dead last in total offense. Yikes.
Second-year quarterback Justin Fields has been an unmitigated disaster this year. He averages 144.8 passing yards per game with a 54.8% completion rate, four touchdowns, and five interceptions. In addition, Fields has the second-lowest Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (4.29 ANY/A), the highest sack rate (16.7%), the second-highest interception rate (4.3%), the second-worst Quarterback Rating (72.7), and the seventh-lowest QBR (34.3). There isn’t a positive way to spin Fields’ play, and New England’s defense will make him look foolish.
The Patriots are seventh in total defense DVOA, tied for third in turnovers forced (12), and tied for seventh in sacks (17). Additionally, the Patriots are aggressive with blitzes, and Fields is lost against the blitz. According to Pro-Football-Reference, New England is tied for the eighth-highest blitz rate (29.3%). Conversely, according to PFF, out of 37 quarterbacks with at least 30 dropbacks against the blitz this year, Fields is 30th in PFF’s passing grade. Chicago’s offense is going to struggle mightily tonight.
Patriots vs. Bears Predictions
The Patriots should boat race the Bears tonight. They’ve outscored their last two opponents 67 to 15. New England has a positive 28-point differential this year.
Meanwhile, the Bears have been outscored by 25 points this year. Chicago has also lost all three of their road games this year, getting beaten by 17 by the Packers in Week 2, eight by the Giants in Week 4, and seven by the Vikings in Week 5.
Fortunately, even when New England is up by a wide margin tonight, their running game is talented enough to keep moving the ball and producing points when they rush in obvious clock-killing situations. As a result, I’m not worried about a backdoor cover by the Bears when the Patriots take their foot off the accelerator. So, I’m laying the eight points with New England and betting on their spread line.
Pick: Patriots -8 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
