The Packers found their offensive rhythm before their bye in Week 14. On the other side, the Rams have largely struggled defensively. However, they gutted out a comeback win last week. Can the Rams show more life this week? Will Green Bay’s offense pick up where they left off before the bye? Let’s look at both teams before determining our favorite Packers vs. Rams predictions for Monday Night Football.
Packers vs. Rams Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | +7 (-110) | +265 | O 39.5 (-110) |
| @ Packers | -7 (-110) | -330 | U 39.5 (-110) |
Odds via WynnBET. Check out our exclusive WynnBET Promo Code to redeem your $100 risk-free bet today!
Game Info
- Date: Monday, Dec. 19
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Lambeau Field — Green Bay, WI
- TV: ESPN
Packers vs. Rams Trends
- The game’s total opened at 40 points on Sunday (12/11) and dipped to 39.5 on Tuesday, which has remained since.
- The over is 4-0 in Green Bay’s last four games.
- The over is 5-0 in the Packers’ last five games on grass.
- The over is 7-1 in Green Bay’s last eight games versus a team with a losing record.
- The over is 5-1 in the Packers’ last six games following a straight-up win.
- The over is 4-1 in Green Bay’s last five home games.
- The over is 4-1 in Los Angeles’s last five games after allowing less than 150 passing yards in their previous game.
- The over is 4-1 in the Rams’ last five games versus an NFC opponent.
Green Bay’s Offense is Humming
The emergence of Christian Watson has given Green Bay’s offense life. Since Week 10, the Packers have scored 31, 17, 33, and 28 points. In addition, according to Pro-Football-Reference, they’ve had more than 340 yards of offense in three of their last four games.
Watson’s elite field-stretching speed perfectly complements Aaron Rodgers’ strong arm. Moreover, Green Bay’s talented backfield duo of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon can set Watson up for shot plays if the Rams devote too many resources to slowing them down on the ground. However, if Los Angeles doesn’t load the box, Jones and Dillon can smash them on the ground.
According to Football Outsiders, the Packers are second in Adjusted Line Yards (4.83). Green Bay’s offensive line will have an easier assignment than Los Angeles’s opponents typically have since game-wrecker Aaron Donald is out. Therefore, I expect the Packers to move the ball on the ground and shred them efficiently through the air if they overcommit to stop the run. Fortunately, the Rams have struggled against deep passes. Since Week 8, opponents have completed 11 of 20 pass attempts that traveled at least 20 Air Yards against the Rams. The setup should be perfect for Green Bay’s offense.
Los Angeles’s Defense is Lousy
The Rams have struggled on defense lately. Per Football Outsiders, the Rams are 24th in total defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) since Week 8. They’re unlikely to play better without Donald.
Sure, the Rams held the Raiders to 16 points on Thursday Night Football last week. However, the Raiders had a hand in the low-scoring output by inefficiently hammering Josh Jacobs between the tackles to chew up the clock while protecting their lead.
Since LA’s bye in Week 7, they’ve coughed up 31, 16, 27, 27, 26, 27, and 16 points. That’s an average of 24.3 points per game allowed to opponents, and a median of 27 points coughed up in their last seven games. The Packers would’ve been a get-right matchup earlier in the season, but Green Bay’s suddenly blossoming offense is unlikely to cure what ails LA’s defense.
Packers vs. Rams Predictions
The Packers should do most of the heavy lifting on offense tonight. Still, their leaky defense can help the Rams look competent offensively. The Packers are 22nd in total defense DVOA since Week 8. They’ve also coughed up at least 23 points in eight of their last 10 games, allowing 15 and 19 points in their stellar defensive showings.
The Rams had struggled mightily on offense this year, even when Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Allen Robinson were healthy. Removing the trio from the offense hasn’t done it any favors. Yet, the Rams have scratched across at least 17 points in four of their last five games. If they can reach that low bar, Green Bay should be able to push the game over 39.5 points. So, I’m taking the over for 39.5 points.
Pick: Over 39.5 Points | -105 at WynnBET