The Packers and Lions meet in the final game of the regular season on Sunday Night Football. A playoff berth will be on the line, regardless of the outcome of the other games. However, it will be a win-and-in game for both teams if the Seahawks lose during the day. The first game was a close affair. Will this be a repeat?
Packers vs. Lions Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | +4.5 | +180 | O 49 |
| @ Packers | -4.5 | -225 | U 49 |
Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook as of 3 p.m. ET on Jan. 7.
Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 8
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
- TV: NBC
Packers vs. Lions Trends
- The Packers opened as 4.5-point favorites on Sunday (1/1), and the line hasn’t budged.
- Green Bay is 4-0 against the spread in their previous four games.
- The Packers are 4-0 in their last four games on grass.
- Green Bay is 4-1 in their previous five games versus an NFC opponent.
- The Packers are 13-6 against the spread in their last 19 games following an against-the-spread win.
- Detroit is 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games after allowing more than 150 rushing yards in their previous game.
- The Lions are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
The Packers Are Cooking with Gasoline
The inflection point for Green Bay’s season was apparent. The Packers turned it around when Christian Watson emerged as a weapon. The Packers beat the Cowboys 31-28 in an overtime thriller in Week 10. Yes, they lost the following two games to the Titans and Eagles, but they’ve rattled off four consecutive wins after the back-to-back losses.
Since Week 10, the Packers have averaged 28.6 points per game and gone 5-2. According to Football Outsiders, Green Bay is ninth in total Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), seventh in offense DVOA, and 18th in total defense DVOA since Week 11.
Green Bay’s defense hasn’t matched the excellence of their offense. Still, the offense has been elite lately, and the defense has been good enough. In their 5-2 stretch, their wins were by 3, 9, 12, 6, and 24 points. They’re in a groove and hitting their stride at the right time.
Road Goff and the Defense Could Derail Detroit
The Lions have won seven of their last nine games after a 1-6 start to the 2022 campaign. However, there are some blemishes on their profile. First, Jared Goff is markedly worse on the road. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Goff has completed 65.83% of his passes, tossed 23 touchdowns, had three interceptions, and recorded a 109.3 Quarterback Rating in nine home games. However, those marks dip to a 63.68% completion rate, six touchdowns, four interceptions, and an 87.6 Quarterback Rating in seven road games.
Second, Detroit’s defense is lousy. They’ve allowed the most yards per play (6.3) and tied for the third-most points allowed per game (25.7). The Lions are 20th in total defense DVOA, 20th in rush defense DVOA, and 21st in pass defense DVOA since Week 11. The combination of Goff’s road woes and Detroit’s lousy defense is a recipe for disappointment.
Packers vs. Lions Prediction
The Lions are 3-4 on the road this year. They’ve averaged only 19.3 points per game and yielded 26.1 points per game to their opponents in road tilts this year. Their losses have been by 4, 29, 18, and 14 points.
Conversely, the Packers are 5-3 at home, and one of their home losses was a game in London. They’re 3-1 in their last four home contests, winning by margins of 3, 12, and 24 points. The Lions won the first NFC North meeting against the Packers this year, 15-9. However, Green Bay outgained Detroit 389 to 254 total yards, and the Lions won the battle of turnovers, three to one. Moreover, Aaron Rodgers threw interceptions from Detroit’s five-yard line, one-yard line, and 22-yard line.
The Packers appear to be the better team and can win handily if they clean up their turnover issues from the first matchup. So, I’ll lay the 4.5 points on the Packers.
Pick: Packers -4.5 | -110 at BetMGM Sportsbook
