The Packers were boat raced by the Vikings in Week 1. Meanwhile, in a monsoon, the Bears sprung an upset against the visiting 49ers.
Still, bettors and sportsbooks aren’t overreacting to a one-week sample. Instead, the Packers are big favorites at home against a team Aaron Rodgers infamously taunted by saying he owns them. But, of course, he wasn’t wrong.
Will Rodgers and the Packers bounce back this week? Or will the Bears upset another favorite? Let’s dive into the numbers and pull the trigger on our favorite Packers vs. Bears predictions for this matchup.
Packers vs. Bears Predictions
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Packers vs. Bears Team Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | +9.5 | +385 | O 41.5 (-110) |
| @ Packers | -9.5 | -500 | U 41.5 (-110) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 5:15 pm ET Sept. 16.
Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 18
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
- TV: NBC
Packers vs. Bears Trends
- The total at FanDuel opened at 45.0 points on Sunday (9/11) and has steadily dropped to 41.5 points.
- The under is 5-2 in the Bears’ last seven games with a straight up win.
- The under is 9-3 in Green Bay’s last 12 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
- The under is 6-2 in the Packers’ last eight games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- The under is 5-2 in the last seven games in which the Packers were home favorites.
Green Bay’s Backfield Is The Meal Ticket
It’s strange to think Green Bay’s offense, led by back-to-back NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers, might be best suited to lean on their one-two punch of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. But don’t believe me. Instead, listen to Rodgers, who indicated the Packers probably should have stuck with the run more than they did in Week 1.
Rodgers wasn’t sharp in the opener, throwing to a drastically revamped receiving room. However, a familiar face might be back this week. Allen Lazard is listed as questionable this week after missing last week’s contest.
Packers listing WR Allen Lazard (ankle), and OL David Bakhtiari (knee), Elgton Jenkins (knee) and Jon Runyan (concussion) as questionable for Sunday's home opener vs. the Bears.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 16, 2022
Still, with multiple players nursing injuries on Green Bay’s offensive line, leaning on the backfield instead of asking them to protect Rodgers is probably wise. Fortunately, the Packers are more than a touchdown favorite. Thus, they should have the game script to do so.
Justin Fields…And?
Poor Justin Fields. Chicago’s new regime’s offensive transactions were comical. The team signed Byron Pringle, Equanimeous St. Brown, Dante Pettis, and Ryan Griffin, traded for N’Keal Harry, and drafted Velus Jones. Yikes.
Somehow, it gets worse. Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranked Chicago’s offensive line 31st before the season. Chicago’s offensive structure is built on thoughts and prayers instead of personnel. It’s a disaster.
Defensively, they traded Khalil Mack to the Chargers before the year, removing an impact player from that side of the ball. They’re also likely ill-equipped to slow Jones and Dillon on the ground. According to Football Outsiders, they were 24th in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
So, the Bears look like a team with an eye on the future, despite winning in Week 1.
Packers vs. Bears Predictions
The Packers are a more talented team. Additionally, there is precedence for the Packers rebounding from an ugly loss in their opener. The Saints steamrolled the Packers last year, and Green Bay responded with a 35-17 win in Week 2 against the visiting Lions. It feels like history will repeat itself this year against a visiting rebuilding NFC North foe.
Green Bay has a path to success on the ground against the Bears, and they’ll likely take it. Moreover, neither team is likely to push the pace and pile up plays. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Packers were tied for 19th in offensive plays (61). One of the teams they were tied with was the Steelers, and they played in overtime. Additionally, they were in a trailing game script and needed to catch up. Without a sense of urgency as a commanding favorite, they can take the air out of the ball and chew up the clock with a methodical run-first offense. They also played slow last year. According to Football Outsiders, the Packers were 31st in situation-neutral pace.
Meanwhile, the Bears were tied for 27th in offensive plays (56) in Week 1. A new offensive coordinator also leads Chicago’s offense from Green Bay’s coaching tree. Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy was Green Bay’s Passing Game Coordinator in 2020-2021 and Quarterbacks Coach in 2019-2021.
The clock might not stop ticking in this game. I expect the Packers to win, but there’s no value in betting their moneyline. Additionally, the spread is larger than I’m comfortable taking. So, my favorite bet is under 41.5 points in a game that could be a snooze fest.
Pick: Under 41.5 Points (-110) | DraftKings Sportsbook
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