NBA All-Star Weekend has lost some luster over the years. The players don’t seem to care much about the actual All-Star game, while none of the biggest stars are willing to participate in the Dunk Contest.
This year’s Dunk Contest will consist of two rookies (Stephon Castle and Matas Buzelis), a second-year player (Andre Jackson Jr.), and a guy who hasn’t been able to stick on an NBA roster (Max McClung).
But the 3-point contest? That’s still going strong. Most of the best 3-point shooters in basketball will take the floor in San Francisco, including defending champ Damian Lillard.
Unfortunately, Steph Curry won’t participate in his home stadium, but at least Buddy Hield will give Warriors fans someone to root for. Jalen Brunson, Darius Garland, Cam Johnson, Cade Cunningham, Tyler Herro, and Norman Powell will round out the field, making it by far the most star-studded event on Saturday night.
NBA 3-Point Contest Picks and Longshot Prediction
We can get into the fun on Underdog, which has a few different offerings to consider. Let’s dive into some of my favorite options.
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Cade Cunningham R1 Score — Lower Than 21.5 (1.0x)
Cunningham has had a breakout campaign for the Pistons. He’s always had the talent – there’s a reason he was selected first overall in the 2021 NBA Draft – but injuries prevented him from reaching his potential through his first three seasons. However, he’s managed to stay on the floor this season, and he’s responded with career highs virtually across the board. He’s averaging 25.4 points, 9.4 assists, and 6.3 rebounds per game, and he was rewarded with his first All-Star game selection.
That said, I’m not sure if Cunningham is quite in the same class as a pure shooter as most of the other players in this field.
Cunningham has knocked down 35.1% of his 3-point attempts this season, and he’s a career 33.6% shooter from downtown. On “wide-open” shots – which NBA.com classifies as having no defender within six feet – he’s shooting just 34.2% from 3-point range. That is well below some of the best players in the field in that department.
Cunningham also doesn’t really have a “money spot.” With the way the NBA has changed the rules for the 3-point contest in recent years, it benefits you tremendously if you have one spot where you can knock down a high percentage. Each player can elect one rack to have five moneyballs, with each shot worth two points. That makes that rack worth 10 points, while the other four racks are worth six each.
Cunningham doesn’t have that one spot on the floor where he really dominates. His best location is the right corner, and he’s just 42.9% from that location. That’s not awful, but most competitors in the field have a spot where they’re 50+%.
Add in the fact that this is his first time competing in the 3-point contest – and he will likely be dealing with some nerves – and I think it could be a disappointing showing.
Where to play: Cade Cunningham R1 Score — Lower Than 21.5 | Underdog
Cam Johnson R1 Score — Higher Than 22.5 Points (1.0x)
Johnson is someone that has the potential to win this event. Most of the other players in this field are “off the dribble” guys. Point guards like Brunson, Lillard, and Garland typically have to create shots for themselves or their teammates, so they’re used to putting the ball on the ground. Johnson is more of a traditional “catch-and-shoot” specialist, and I think that translates to this type of event. There is a difference between picking the ball out of the rack and catching a pass from a teammate, but he fits the mold of the type of player who has traditionally succeeded in this event. Think guys like Klay Thompson, Joe Harris, and Hield.
Johnson is also a pure 3-point shooter. That was the scouting report on him when he was drafted, and he’s lived up to that reputation in the NBA. He’s a career 39.5% shooter from distance, and he’s at 41.3% this season on a career-high 7.5 attempts per game. That’s a nice combination of volume and efficiency. Among the 36 players averaging at least seven 3-point attempts per game this year, Johnson has converted at the fourth-highest percentage.
Johnson also has a clear spot for his money rack: the right corner. He’s knocked down 50% of his 3-pointers from that location this season, so he has the potential to run it up in that location. He’s not bad in the left corner either (45.0%), and he’s a respectable 39.7% from above the break.
Like Cunningham, Johnson will have to deal with some nerves with this being the first time he’s participating in the event. However, this is the only thing on his itinerary for the weekend. I’m expecting him to make a statement.
Where to play: Cam Johnson R1 Score — Higher Than 22.5 Points | Underdog
Damian Lillard R1 Starry Shots — Higher Than 1.5 (1.58x)
We had to get to Lillard at some point in this writeup. He’s won this event in back-to-back years, becoming the first back-to-back champ since Jason Kapono in 2007 and 2008. The last player to three-peat was Craig Hodges from 1990 through 1992, and Larry Bird is the only other player to win the event three times.
There are a few different ways you can play Lillard, but I’m going with a bit of a longshot. Another one of the recent changes to the 3-point contest is the addition of two “Starry” balls in each round. These balls are a little bit further behind the 3-point line and are worth three points apiece.
This gives an edge to the guys that can knock down deep 3-pointers. Does that sound like anyone that you can think of? Lillard has quite possibly the deepest range in the league, knocking down some extremely memorable 3-pointers from way downtown.
When Lillard won this event in 2023, he knocked down three of four Starry balls (one in the first round, both in the Finals). In 2024, he was 3-5 from Starry range (including a playoff). Ultimately, the question isn’t whether he can make one from the deepest part of the competition; it’s whether he’ll make both in Round 1.
He’s yet to do that, but I’m willing to roll the dice on him at 1.58x. It’s a decent number for a player with seemingly limitless range who will be competing in this event for the fifth time.
Where to play: Damian Lillard R1 Starry Shots — Higher Than 1.5 (1.58x) | Underdog
