It’s the prayer all bettors say when placing a futures wager on a team or player, regardless of sport: Please don’t let injuries derail this bet! Unfortunately, those who backed the New York Mets in the NL East win totals market prior to late last week realize their prayer already has gone unanswered.
After missing the entire second half of last season with arm issues, Mets ace Jacob deGrom has been sidelined again, this time with right shoulder inflammation. The two-time Cy Young winner — and the frontrunner to win this year’s award — won’t pick up a baseball for at least four weeks, after which he will be reevaluated.
Not surprisingly, the deGrom news sent oddsmakers scrambling to update futures prices on all things Mets- and deGrom-related, including NL East win totals odds. Here’s an updated look at those win totals for all five squads in the division:
Odds via The SuperBook and updated as of 11:30 a.m. ET on April 3.
Atlanta Braves Season Win Total
Prior to deGrom injury: 91.5
Current: 91.5
Interestingly, The SuperBook held firm on the Braves’ win total in the wake of the deGrom news. Perhaps the number would have risen a tick if first baseman/team leader Freddie Freeman hadn’t bolted to the L.A. Dodgers in free agency. Or if star outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. was going to be in the lineup on Opening Day. (Acuña, who is recovering from a torn ACL suffered just before the All-Star break last season, is expected back in late April.)
Instead, the defending World Series champs remain pegged at 91.5 on The SuperBook’s NL East win totals odds board.
New York Mets Season Win Total
Prior to deGrom injury: 90
Current: 88.5
Shortly after the deGrom news broke, New York’s win total number dipped — but perhaps not as much as some probably expected, especially given how vital the right-hander is to the team’s chances this season. That said, lowering the total by 1.5 games isn’t exactly insignificant when understanding how many MLB win totals end up decided by the narrowest of margins.
Also, it’s clear oddsmakers are hedging their own bets, speculating that the Mets — who are all-in for 2022 — will pursue a frontline starter to cover deGrom’s lost innings. Sure enough, on Saturday, New York was linked to a deal for hard-throwing Padres righthander Chris Paddack. Although reports suggest that trade might not happen, don’t expect the Mets to stand pat.
In fact, the front office probably has put in a call to Oakland. The A’s are rebuilding, and it’s no secret they will move hard-throwing righthander Frankie Montas if the price is right. (The Mets probably had an eye on A’s southpaw Sean Manaea, too, but Manaea was dealt Sunday to the Padres.)
Also, don’t forget there’s an ace still around in Queens named Max Scherzer, not to mention talented righty Chris Bassitt (whom the Mets acquired in the offseason from, yep, Oakland).
Philadelphia Phillies Season Win Total
Prior to deGrom injury: 86
Current: 86.5
The Phillies’ season win total was initially left unchanged after deGrom’s injury became public. While it has since inched up a half-game, there’s still some value on the Over if you’re a Philly faithful. That’s because the Phillies and Mets are set to square off 10 times in the first 31 days of the MLB season.
It’s likely Philadelphia would have seen deGrom two or three times right out of the gate. Not the case anymore.
Miami Marlins Season Win Total
Prior to deGrom injury: 74.5
Current: 75
The Marlins continue to be a dark horse in this tough division thanks to the quality of their starting pitching. With deGrom missing the first month of the season and possibly more, that staff looks even better compared with the rest of the division.
Like Philadelphia, Miami’s season win total has risen a half-game. But unlike Philadelphia, the Marlins won’t see the Mets for 2½ months, with their first meeting scheduled June 17. By then, deGrom could be back on the mound — or if not him, a suitable replacement.
Washington Nationals Season Win Total
Prior to deGrom injury: 71.5
Current: 71
Curiously, the Nationals’ season win total has dropped a smidge, even though New York and Washington start the season with a four-game series in D.C., which is among 11 meetings between Opening Day and June 1.
Clearly, oddsmakers at The SuperBook are convinced that Washington isn’t good enough to take advantage of deGrom’s absence. The betting public probably shares that opinion in fading a Nats club that seems destined to occupy the NL East cellar for most of the season.
Props.com’s Matt Jacob contributed to this report.
