A couple of big plus-money NHL props hit Tuesday, and we’re back at it with a fresh five for Thursday. With 10 games staggered over 3.5 hours of start times, it’ll be a long night of coast-to-coast action. So buckle that helmet strap, grab a cup of coffee, and let’s see if we can pocket some cash with these NHL props.
We’ll start with a prop involving one of the league’s most dominant goal scorers — only it focuses on his shot attempts rather than his goal-scoring prowess.
Odds via DraftKings and FanDuel, and updated as of 1:30 p.m ET on Thursday, Dec. 9.
Chicago Blackhawks: Alex DeBrincat
The Prop: Score Anytime Goal (at Montreal Canadiens)
The Odds: +165
After going without a goal in his last two games, DeBrincat gets a juicy matchup Thursday against the struggling Canadiens. In fact, this particular prop is the perfect marriage of ability and opportunity.
DeBrincat’s 14 goals are a team high — six more than any other Blackhawks player — and he’s been equally productive at home and on the road (seven goals apiece). He’s also one off the team lead in shots on goal, converting at an impressive 17.7% rate.
Furthermore, DeBrincat ranks second on the Blackhawks in time on ice per game and leads the club in 5-on-5 individual expected goals rate (ixG) at 4.54.
Trust the Cat to find the back of the net against Montreal, which allows the fourth-most goals (3.56) and fifth-most shots (33.4) per game.
Editor’s Note: New to NHL props? Check out our complete NHL Prop Betting Guide to get up to speed!
Toronto Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews
The Prop: 4.5 Total Shots on Goal (vs. Tampa Bay Lightning)
The Odds: Over +130/Under -160
Matthews ranks second in the NHL in shots (109 in 24 games) entering Thursday’s action. Yes, Matthews stayed under 4.5 shots in two of his last five outings, but he tallied eight shots in back-to-back games against the first-place Minnesota Wild and Stanley Cup favorite Colorado Avalanche.
Toronto will be without Mitch Marner long-term, as the set-up winger is on IR with a shoulder injury. This may make things tougher for Matthews to match his current shot output (4.5 per game), especially against a Tampa Bay Lightning club allowing the seventh-fewest shots per contest (30).
However, with Marner out, the Maple Leafs star knows he’ll need to shoulder even more of the playmaking burden. That pressure should translate into Matthews trying to put even more pucks on net.
New York Islanders
The Prop: 2.5 Goals Scored, regulation only (vs. Nashville Predators)
The Odds: Over -122/Under -106
The New York Islanders were forced to play their first 13 games on the road while workers put the finishing touches on their new home barn, UBS Arena. The building finally opened Nov. 20, and six home games later, the Isles still haven’t christened it with a victory, going 0-4-2.
New York did snap an ugly 11-game losing skid with Tuesday’s 5-3 victory in Ottawa. However, it’s still been a serious fall from grace for the two-time defending Eastern Conference runner-up. The main reason: an anemic offense that is averaging just 2.05 goals per game. (Only Arizona at 1.76 is worse.)
Including Tuesday’s five-goal outburst, the Isles have gone over this prop number just twice in their last 13 games. And they haven’t scored three-plus goals in consecutive contests all season.
As a team, the Islanders have the third-lowest 5-on-5 xGF (38.49) with just 31 goals. On the other hand, Nashville’s expected goals against (xGA) of 41.48 in 5-on-5 play is sixth-best in the league. The under seems like a solid value play on your NHL props ticket on Thursday.
Winnipeg Jets: Pierre-Luc Dubois
The Prop: Score Anytime Goal (at Seattle Kraken)
The Odds: +240
Dubois has been shooting the puck less than he should this season. He ranks ninth in the league in iXg (6.03) in 5-on-5 situations, but he’s totaled just 10 shots in his last five games (and half that came in one outing).
So why roll the dice with Dubois to find the net Thursday? Because Seattle is one of the worst teams in the league in terms of allowing goals relative to expectation — that is, the Kraken have surrendered 89 goals in all situations compared to an expected 64.73.
On Monday, Kraken goaltender Philipp Grubauer got the quick hook after allowing three goals on four shots in the first period. The former Avalanche netminder is expected to start again Thursday despite a ghastly 3.17 GAA and a .886 save percentage this season.
Minnesota Wild At San Jose Sharks
The Prop: Team to Score First Goal (regulation only)
The Odds: Minnesota Wild -130/San Jose Sharks +105
Minnesota is understandably the favorite in this one due to its positioning atop the loaded Central Division. But while the Wild have scored 30 first-period goals in 25 games, they’ve been the first to light the lamp in only 13 of those contests.
San Jose also has scored first 13 times (in 26 games), but that number looks better when understanding the Sharks only have 18 total first-period goals all season. Two of those early goals came when San Jose visited Minnesota earlier this season — game the Sharks won, 4-1.
Decent value on the underdog at home with this prop.
