From Tampa Bay to San Jose, we’ve got you covered for Thursday’s NHL props action. Here are our top five NHL prop selections from the 10-game slate — or should we say expected 10-game slate. After all, in the age of COVID, postponements are always looming (for instance, Thursday’s Maple Leafs-Flames contest in Calgary has already been called off.
Odds via DraftKings and FanDuel, updated as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, Dec. 16.
Tampa Bay Lightning: Steven Stamkos
The Prop: Score Anytime Goal (vs. Ottawa)
The Odds: +120
Whether it’s fantasy hockey or prop betting, the same mantra applies: When in doubt, start your studs. Stamkos is exactly that for Tampa Bay, leading the Lightning with 13 goals. A constant threat to score, the veteran center also leads his team in power-play time on ice per game (3:28) and is third in individual expected goals scored (ixG) in all situations at 7.26.
Ottawa shut out the Lightning north of the border on Saturday, and the Senators have won five of their past six games. Still, at 9-16-1, Ottawa owns the second-worst record in the Eastern Conference. That sub-.500 record is significant as it relates to this prop, as Stamkos has scored at least one goal six times in 11 games against opponents with a losing record.
New Jersey Devils: Dawson Mercer
The Prop: 1.5 Total Shots on Goal (vs. Vegas)
The Odds: Over -170/Under +138
Mercer is one of the top prospects in the Devils’ system, and though he’s going to be a star in this league for years to come, don’t expect to see that star power shine Thursday night.
For starters, Mercer has failed to record at least two shots in five of his last eight games – and that includes four games in which he failed to put the puck on net at all.
Vegas has historically been one of the top shot-suppressing teams in the league, but it is currently allowing 31.6 shots per game (18th in the league). That’s four-plus shots per game more than last year (27.3). However, this year’s stat is misleading, as the Golden Knights were without several key starters for a good chunk of the early season.
Most of those players — including captain Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty — are now healthy. As such, the defense has tightened up, as the Knights have allowed 25, 23 25, 27, and 24 shots in their last five games.
Expect Vegas to have another strong defensive performance Thursday and put the clamps on Mercer.
Editor’s Note: New to NHL props? Check out our complete NHL Prop Betting Guide to get up to speed!
Carolina Hurricanes
The Prop: 2.5 Total Goals Scored (vs. Detroit)
The Odds: Over -185/Under +150
As mentioned Tuesday, the Hurricanes have been hit hard by COVID-19. Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, Seth Jarvis, Jordan Staal, Ian Cole, and Steven Lorentz are all in COVID-19 protocol, and Tuesday’s game at Minnesota was postponed.
Carolina is set to host the Red Wings on Thursday night, and though Detroit has allowed 3.00 goals per game this season, it will be facing a Hurricanes squad missing a ton of firepower. In fact, the six aforementioned players out with COVID have scored 40 percent of Carolina’s goals this season.
Also, assuming he starts, Red Wings goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic will have some added motivation in this one. He was drafted by Carolina and went 15-5-3 with a 1.90 goals-against average in 23 starts with the Canes last season, his first full NHL campaign.
Minnesota Wild: Kevin Fiala
The Prop: Score Anytime Goal (vs. Buffalo)
The Odds: +155
Few players in the league have been more snakebit than Fiala this season. Fiala has the second-highest ixG count on the Wild in all situations (8.77). However, that’s translated into just four goals, giving Fiala the NHL’s worst goals-to-expected goals ratio this season.
Lowest Goals Scored Above Expected – December 11 pic.twitter.com/ilpIPtrFTn
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) December 11, 2021
So why should we expect Fiala’s luck to change Thursday? Well, for one thing, he’s overdue for a correction. More importantly, Buffalo’s goaltending situation is a nightmare.
With Dustin Tokarski and Craig Anderson injured, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is expected to be in net. While Luukkonen has been decent in four fill-in starts (eight goals allowed), the Sabres are still allowing the fifth-most goals (3.50) and fourth-most shots (33.7) per game.
San Jose Sharks: Brent Burns
The Prop: 2.5 Total Shots on Goal (vs. Vancouver)
The Odds: Over +106/Under -130
Burns is one of the highest-scoring defensemen in NHL history, ranking 24th all-time with 739 points entering Thursday. That total leads all active defensemen.
So far this season, Burns is averaging 2.55 shots per game, but the 36-year-old has gone over that mark in four of his last six games.
Vancouver has looked much better under new head coach Bruce Boudreau, winning five straight for its new bench boss. Still, the Canucks concede 31.9 shots per game, 12th-most in the league.
With the Sharks needing an offensive punch — they’ve tallied five goals total in their last three games — expect them to turn to their big gun on the blue line. And for what it’s worth, Burns has averaged 2.51 shots in his career against Vancouver (183 shots in 73 games).
