The start of the NFL season is right around the corner, which means now is the perfect time to get some exposure in the season-long markets. One of my favorite ways to play NFL season-long player props is at Underdog Fantasy.
Why NFL Season-Long Player Props at Underdog Fantasy?
Underdog is known for their best-ball format, but they also have a robust offering of player markets. NFL Season-long player props are available for a bunch of different players across a wide variety of categories in their Pick’Em format. If you’re unfamiliar with the Pick’Em contests, I recently wrote a primer breaking down everything you need to know.
If you are new to Underdog Fantasy, you can get up to a $100 deposit match by using promo code PROPS.
That’s right, Underdog is essentially giving you up to $100 free to try their platform.
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Let’s dive into five of my favorite NFL season-long player props available at Underdog Fantasy.
Lamar Jackson Less Than 3500.5 Passing Yards
I’m pretty bullish on Jackson heading into this season. The team made a concerted effort to upgrade its pass-catchers this offseason, drafting Zay Flowers in the first round of the NFL Draft and signing Odell Beckham Jr. in free agency. Rashod Bateman should also be back in action after missing most of last season with injuries.
That said, asking Jackson to get to 3,500 passing yards might be too much.
Lamar is the prototypical dual-threat QB, so much of his production comes with his legs. He’s never had a season with more than 3,127 passing yards, and he’s been at 2,882 or less in three of his past four seasons. That means Jackson would have to take a massive step forward as a passer in 2023-24.
Additionally, Jackson isn’t exactly known for his durability. He’s never played more than 15 games in a season, and he’s played just 12 games in each of the past two years. His play style opens him up to big hits, which increases his injury potential compared to most quarterbacks.
Ultimately, less than 3,500 passing yards feels like a solid selection.
Justin Herbert More Than 30.5 Passing Touchdowns
Herbert is another player who I’m bullish on for 2023-24. For starters, he dealt with a ton of tough circumstances last year. Keenan Allen was limited to just 10 games played, while Mike Williams played in only 13. Herbert didn’t have a ton of other weapons to lean on in the passing game, so that had a serious impact on his numbers.
Still, even with injuries working against him, Herbert still got extremely unlucky. He finished with just 25 actual passing touchdowns, but Pro Football Focus credited him with 33.3 expected passing touchdowns. That’s a pretty significant gap, which suggests that Herbert should be due for some positive regression.
Like the Ravens, the Chargers also used their first-round selection on a receiver in the 2023 NFL Draft, giving Herbert another option to lean on. I would expect some of Austin Ekeler’s 18 rushing touchdowns to turn into passing scores next year, and if that happens, Herbert should be able to get to 31 TDs.
Kenneth Walker Less Than 1000.5 Rushing Yards
Walker was extremely impressive as a rookie, finishing second in Rookie of the Year voting to Garrett Wilson. However, nothing that has happened this offseason can be considered good for him.
For starters, the Seahawks added two running backs in the draft, including a second-rounder in Zach Charbonnet. There are rumors that head coach Pete Carroll is not enamored with Walker’s all-or-nothing approach, and Charbonnet gives them another option at the position.
Additionally, the Seahawks continued to beef up their passing attack by selecting Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round. He’ll join DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to form one of the best receiver trios in football right out of the gate.
The Seahawks already passed the ball way more than usual in Geno Smith’s first year, and it’s possible they could veer even more toward the pass with JSN in town. With more competition for Walker in the backfield, I’m expecting him to regress from last year’s 1,050-yard campaign.
Bijan Robinson More Than 1075.5 Rushing Yards
When it comes to running backs, taking an over is an extremely risky proposition. They take a major pounding on a weekly basis, making them arguably the most injury-prone position in football. Additionally, passing the ball becomes more prevalent on a year-to-year basis, and most teams have begun to employ a committee approach at the position.
Add it all up, and you have to be supremely confident in a player to back them for a big season.
That’s exactly how I feel about Robinson. The Falcons spent major draft capital by selecting him with the No. 8 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, and he joins an offense that loved to run the football last season. They were second-to-last in pass rate over expectation, trailing only the Justin Fields-led Bears.
The Falcons employed a trio of RBs last season with Cordarrelle Patterson, Tyler Allgeier, and Caleb Huntley each garnering at least 85 carries. That said, you don’t draft a running back in the top 10 and not give him the football. Overall, Falcons’ RBs combined for 452 carries last year, and I think Robinson could conservatively handle 75% of that if he stays healthy. That would be approximately 340 carries, so he wouldn’t even need to be that effective to clear 1075 rushing yards.
Health is obviously the big concern here, but I think his number should be significantly closer to Jonathan Taylor (1,200.5) and Derrick Henry (1,225.5).
Robert Woods Less Than 599.5 Receiving Yards
Woods is technically the top receiver in Houston, but who knows how long that will last? The Texans are almost certainly not going to threaten for a playoff spot this season, so it makes sense to see what they have in some younger players.
The Texans have plenty of intriguing options at receiver, including Nico Collins, John Metchie, and Nathaniel Dell. All three have been drafted in recent years, and Metchie and Dell have yet to receive NFL snaps. It would be in the Texans’ best interest to find out if those guys can play before heading into the next offseason.
Additionally, Woods looked like a shell of himself last year. He started the year in a very similar position, serving as the No. 1 receiver for the shaky Titans’ passing game. He was quickly overtaken by rookie Treylon Burks, and Woods finished with career lows in virtually every category across the board. Despite playing in all 17 games, he managed just 527 yards on 53 catches, good for an average of 9.9 yards per reception.
Now entering his age-31 season, I don’t expect things to get any easier for him. Maybe C.J. Stroud can take the league by storm, but even the best quarterbacks tend to struggle in their rookie years. There are plenty of question marks about how good Stroud ultimately is, and he wouldn’t be the first quarterback to look great at Ohio State before struggling in the NFL.
