If you were betting a Justin Herbert interception prop last week when his Chargers were taking on the Houston Texans, the answer would have been no, don’t bet on him throwing an interception. The game was simply too important for L.A., and he’s too good.
Then Herbert threw two interceptions, and in one of the biggest shocks of the season, Houston won the game 41-29.
Now the Chargers are battling for their playoff lives, and Herbert is facing the Denver Broncos secondary.
All odds courtesy of BetPrep, updated 10 a.m. ET on Dec. 30.
Justin Herbert vs. Denver Broncos
The Prop: Justin Herbert Interceptions
The Odds: Over 0.5 yards (-147)/Under 0.5 yards (-118)
For the Chargers right now, winning is critical. If the season ended today, they would miss the playoffs, when they were an overtime period away from being in first place just two weeks ago.
For Herbert, that means he needs to be at his best, which means that the turnovers need to stop. He hasn’t lost a fumble since Week 1, but he’s thrown 14 interceptions this season, which is tied for most in the NFL.
He’s also thrown picks in six of his last seven games, and four of those games have turned into losses.
TEXANS GET THE PICK-6 ON HERBERT TO SEAL THE UPSET WIN 👀
(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/9oskD7LBpE— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 26, 2021
AFC Pro Bowl Starter
Herbert has been named the AFC’s starting quarterback at the Pro Bowl, so he’s had an excellent season. He’s over 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns for the second straight year, making him the first quarterback in NFL history to achieve those milestones in his first two pro seasons.
All things being equal, Herbert would much rather be forced to miss the Pro Bowl because he’s playing in the Super Bowl. That possibility seemed quite strong a month ago.
Now, with some of the blame falling on his shoulders, the possibility of missing the playoffs entirely is a strong possibility.
The Broncos Pass Defense
No one knows you better than the teams within your division, and the Broncos know Herbert all too well. And that’s a positive thing for the Broncos, and less so for Herbert.
These teams played Thanksgiving weekend, and the Broncos’ rookie Patrick Surtain II picked Herbert off twice, and Denver won the game.
In two games last season against Denver, Herbert and the Broncos split the games 1-1, and Herbert was intercepted another two times.
The Broncos feature a great set of safeties and some of the best young cornerbacks in the NFL, and they’ve intercepted 13 passes so far this season.
The Prop
For his streak alone, you would have to bet on Herbert throwing an interception against the Broncos on Sunday. He’s done it in the majority of games this season, and he’s just one interception away from averaging a pick per game this season.
Add in the Broncos secondary, their history of four interceptions in three previous games against Herbert, their overall solid play this season, and betting the OVER on a Justin Herbert interception feels like a no-brainer.