One of the best games on the schedule in Week 6 is an AFC battle between two 4-1 teams: the Chargers and the Ravens.
The result of this game could have quite an impact on the AFC playoff race at the season’s end, so it’s one we’re excited to watch unfold.
When betting props, I see some quality value in betting on the Los Angeles offense against this Baltimore defense.
The Ravens just allowed Carson Wentz to pass for over 400 yards for the first time in his career and begin to show signs of his old self. They have struggled to slow down the passing game all season and now get one of the MVP favorites, Justin Herbert, and his explosive group of pass-catchers.
Let’s dig into it a bit more as we find a few Chargers worth a prop bet on Sunday.
The Baltimore Defensive Woes
When looking at notable defense statistics on sites like Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders, the Ravens defense is squarely ranked as a bottom-ten unit.
Baltimore particularly struggles to slow down the pass, ranking 26th in the NFL in the opponent’s yards per pass.
Excluding the game where Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out early, quarterbacks have hit their overs 75% of the time against this Ravens defense to start the season. In the case of Wentz and Derek Carr, both passers threw for over 400 yards.
The Clear Target For Los Angeles
With the Ravens’ weaknesses established, the betting target becomes evidently obvious: Justin Herbert and his receivers.
Of 13 eligible receivers, 9 of them have hit their overs against Baltimore this season, a 69% hit rate.
The Chargers rank ninth in the league in passing percentage, throwing on 63.08% of offensive plays. Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams have all had monster starts to their season and seem poised for another big game this Sunday.
Herbert is averaging 315.2 passing yards per game and has hit his prop over in three of five games.
Williams leads the Chargers in receiving with 94.2 yards per game and has hit his betting over in four of five to start the season.
Allen averages 73.8 yards per game but has only hit his over in two games this season.
I don’t think you can go wrong with any of these players in what projects to be a high-scoring affair (current over/under is set at 52.5 points).
My favorite bets are both Herbert and Keenan Allen. I know Williams has hit his over more frequently and has amassed more yards, but Allen has slightly more targets and seems bound to have some big games of his own sooner before later.