Good news if you’re a liquor distributor situated within a five-mile radius of an NFL oddsmaker: Your profits are through the roof this week — as are the profits of professional and public bettors across the land.
Not that anyone will ever shed a tear that the house played the role of Mike Tyson to the betting public’s Buster Douglas in Week 6 … mostly because the betting public will soon enough play the role of Douglas to the bookmakers’ Evander Holyfield. But that was one savage beating bettors delivered on Sunday, as a slew of public favorites — among them, the Chiefs, Packers, Bengals, Rams, Vikings, and Cowboys — got to the window (the latter two in overtime).
Straight bets, parlays, teasers — you name it, bettors cashed it.
The one thing those aforementioned Week 6 moneymakers had in common? They all cashed as road favorites. Indeed, an NFL betting trend we highlighted in last week’s NFL Point Spread Report delivered once again. We dive deeper into that very trend — as well as reveal the clear-cut point spread winners and losers through six weeks, unveil the top (and bottom) Over/Under teams, and dissect yet another favorite-specific tendency that’s biting oddsmakers right in the liver — in the latest edition of the NFL Point Spread Report.
All statistics are based on closing numbers per VegasInsider.com.
| Trends | Last Week | Season Overall |
| Favorites SU | 10-4 | 49-31 |
| Favorites ATS | 8-6 | 43-51 |
| Over/Under | 5-7-2 | 42-50-2 |
The Road To Riches
The nation’s sportsbook directors might be lighter in the pocketbook this week, but they should still dip into the cash reserves and send a nice bottle of wine to both Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts and Titans running back Derrick Henry. Hurts scored a late touchdown and two-point conversion in the Thursday nighter to give the Eagles (+6.5) the backdoor cover in a 28-22 home loss to Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, Henry ran for roughly 653 yards as the Titans (+6) scored the biggest upset of the week, 34-31 at home over the (previously) red-hot Bills on Monday night.
Those bookend performances kept road favorites from going a perfect 8-for-8 on the week.
Normally a recipe for bankroll disaster, NFL road favorites are suddenly as lucrative as a share of Apple stock circa 1997. Going back to Week 2, visitors laying chalk on the road are 24-6 SU and 19-11 ATS. In the last two weeks alone, those numbers are 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS.
This week’s NFL odds board features just four road favorites among the 13-game slate. The good news for bookmakers? Only one of those games involves a “marquee” public team. The bad news? That team is the Chiefs, who are laying 4.5 points at Tennessee a week after pulling away late for a 31-13 win as 6.5-point chalk at Washington. Public and sharp bettors alike piled on the two-time defending AFC champs in Week 6, despite the fact they arrived in D.C. in a 2-13-1 ATS slump.
This week’s other road favorites: Carolina (three consecutive SU and ATS setbacks) is 3-point chalk at the Giants (0-3 SU and ATS at home); Atlanta returns from its bye as a 2.5-point favorite at Miami (0-5 SU and 0-3 ATS slumps); and New Orleans (also off a bye) is 4.5-point chalk at Seattle (0-2 SU and ATS at home).
Doubling Their Pleasure
Prior to 2021, the three biggest NFL betting no-nos were: “Think twice before backing road favorites”; “Think twice before backing double-digit favorites”; and “Think twice — and twice again — before backing a Mike McCarthy-coached team.”
We’ve already explained how the first rule apparently no longer applies, and we’ll get to the third one shortly. So let’s focus on the middle rule, which comes into play in a big way in Week 7.
Thus far, double-digit favorites are 8-0 overall — not a huge surprise, since games with double-digit lines are mismatches on paper. This year, though, it’s clear oddsmakers actually have been undervaluing elite teams, as those eight double-digit chalks went 6-2 ATS.
This week — for the first time since Week 2 — there are three double-digit favorites, and a fourth is on the border.
The Bucs, who have cashed just twice in six games, are 13.5-point favorites against the Bears; the Rams are laying 15 points at home against the winless Lions; and the undefeated Cardinals are a whopping 17-point choice against the Texans, who have dropped five in a row.
As for that fourth game: Green Bay opened -10 against Washington but was down to -9.5 early in the week. No matter where this line settles, the Packers have a huge edge from a recent trends perspective: Green Bay is on a 5-0 SU and ATS run since no-showing against the Saints in Week 1, while Washington is just 1-5 ATS this season.
Speaking of the best and worst of the NFL point-spread world …
Cowboys Still Riding High
It took a last-minute field goal in regulation and a walk-off touchdown pass in overtime — all against a Bill Belichick-coached defense in New England! — but the Dallas Cowboys did the unthinkable last week: They surpassed their number of point-spread victories from last year … in 10 fewer games! After going 5-11 ATS in 2020, Dallas is off to a 6-0 ATS start and remains the only team out of 32 that has yet to burn its backers.
Those backers will have to find another lock to latch onto this week, as the Cowboys are on a bye. Worth considering are two other NFC squads: the Packers and Cardinals, who are the only teams at 5-1 ATS. Also, the Colts have covered in three straight games and find themselves 3.5-point underdogs in the Sunday night slot at San Francisco, which returns from a bye at 1-4 ATS.
Joining Washington and the 49ers as the only teams with just one point-spread triumph on the season: the New York Jets (1-4 ATS), who are a 7-point ‘dog at New England on Sunday.
Over Here, Under There
Sportsbooks might have to make some significant power-ratings adjustments when it comes to road favorites, double-digit favorites, and the Cowboys, but they’ve definitely been on point with NFL totals. To wit: In the past three weeks, there have been 22 Overs, 22 Unders, and 2 pushes.
That said, some distinctive, team-specific patterns have emerged from a totals perspective. On the high side, the Rams and Cowboys are both 5-1 to the Over — with all three of LA’s home games going high — while the Browns, Bucs, Chiefs, and Washington have topped the total in four of their six contests.
At the opposite end of the block, the Bears, Bengals, and Chargers are 5-1 to the Under, while the Seahawks and Steelers — who landed right on the total in last week’s Sunday nighter — are 4-1-1 to the Under.
Two final things worth noting from a totals perspective: The Under continues to be (for whatever reason) profitable in nonconference games at 19-9-2 (63.3%). There are four such contests this week: Atlanta-Miami, Philadelphia-Las Vegas, Houston-Arizona, and Indianapolis-San Francisco.
Lastly, the Over sits at 11-6-1 in prime-time games after last week’s three marquee matchups went 1-1-1. While the last four Thursday night contests have stayed low, the Over is 5-1 in Monday Night Football and 4-1-1 in Sunday Night Football.
