One game of interest to me this weekend when betting NFL player props is the Rams-Giants contest. In particular, there appears to be an advantage for the Los Angeles passing game.
Matt Stafford has been excellent this season, primarily throwing the ball to Cooper Kupp.
But it’s Robert Woods, not Kupp, who is my preferred pick in this offense, with a line currently set at 64.5 receiving yards.
Here are three reasons why Woods is my pick on Sunday.
Last Game’s Performance
Woods and Kupp have both been on the field for almost every snap this season, but Kupp vastly outproduced his teammate through four weeks.
After comments from Sean McVay stating the need to get Woods more involved in the offense, the results speak for themselves.
Woods was targeted 14 times last Thursday night against the Seahawks, catching 12 balls for 150 yards.
This was his best game of the season, as his previous high in yards was 64.
This feels like a sign of things to come as the Rams find balance in their passing game, and with another modest line, oddsmakers are betting on Woods falling back to Earth.
There’s nothing to suggest that will be the case – he looked great last week and has Stafford’s trust.
Numbers Show Two Units On Different Spectrums
A core pillar for player prop research is looking at the quality of every passing and rushing team on offense and defense.
My goal is always to find overlaps between the top and bottom ten teams, and we’ve found one here.
Los Angeles has a top-five passing offense, and New York has a bottom-ten pass defense. When you see numbers like that, the opportunity is there to find value.
BetPrep NFL Player Props Trends
Finally, it wouldn’t be a complete prop pick without checking out the trends over on BetPrep. Robert Woods’s page has a few positive trends that suggest a repeat performance is in order.
History suggests Woods can put together a big game when following up a previously big game:
- Caught for 65+ receiving yards in 9 of his last 12 (75%) games when he had at least 11 targets last game
- Caught for 65+ receiving yards in 9 of his last 12 (75%) games when he had at least 90 receiving yards previous game
It’s a perfect unison of metrics and situations for this game, and it’s why Robert Woods has a perfect chance of going over his receiving yardage total on Sunday afternoon.
Good luck this weekend!