Sunday’s Week 13 slate is just about here, and keep your eye on Derek Carr’s passing yards over, currently at 266.5 yards on DraftKings. Washington has been a bit stingier to passing success of late, but this is still one of the better NFL player props on the board.
Here are three things to consider when deciding whether or not to bet Derek Carr’s over in Week 13.
Carr’s Season And The Raiders Offensive Identity
This season, Derek Carr has exceeded this projected total in 7 of his 11 games, good for a 67% coverage rate.
This line is enticing, considering Carr has thrown for 320+ yards five times. He’s averaging 310.4 passing yards per game this season and 293.6 in his last five, both much higher than the line DraftKings has up right now.
Las Vegas is also a passing team, first and foremost, which helps fuel this betting pick. The Raiders attempted 37.5 passes per game, the ninth-highest mark in the NFL.
Carr will sling it, and it’s that type of volume I typically gravitate towards when it comes to yardage props.
This line is too low for a guy who leads the NFL in passing:
1️⃣2️⃣ weeks down and Derek Carr leads the NFL in passing yards. 💪🎯
Who will finish the season on top? #NFL pic.twitter.com/eOBCSqKvz8
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) November 30, 2021
Washington’s Secondary
Washington has buckled down a bit over the past month, but this remains a team that allows the sixth-most passing yards per game to quarterbacks.
7 of the 11 quarterbacks to play Washington have hit their overs for passing yards, and considering how often the Raiders should be throwing, Carr is in a good position to make it 8 of 12.
BetPrep Approves
This is an example of a big disparity between DraftKings’s line and BetPrep projected total.
BetPrep has Derek Carr’s projection this weekend at 288.5 yards, significantly higher than the actual line available to you today.
What’s even more exciting, and what makes this a bet I’m making, is seeing Carr’s page full of positive trends at that higher number.
Take a look at what is just a sampling of positive trends that support a big game from the Raiders passer:
- Passed for 289+ yards in 7 of his last 9 (77.78%) games when he threw for at least 300 pass yards last game. (avg. 306.4 per gm)
- Passed for 289+ yards in 8 of his last 10 (80%) games when he had a QBR of at least 90 last game. (avg. 324.7 per gm)
- Passed for 289+ yards in 8 of his last 9 (88.89%) games when he averaged at least 11 yards per completion previous game. (avg. 346.4 per gm)
- Passed for 289+ yards in 7 of his last 8 (87.5%) games when he averaged at least 8 yards per attempt last game. (avg. 332.4 per gm)
History suggests a big game for Derek Carr on Sunday, as does his 2021 season production. Load him up confidently, and enjoy the action!
For more NFL betting info, be sure to follow me on Twitter, @griffybets.