The Week 9 rushing leaders read like a who’s who of great NFL player props, with Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb, and Dalvin Cook finishing in the top-five. As for the players worth giving a bet to in Week 10, here are our favorites.
All NFL player props odds and lines are courtesy of BetPrep updated 11:00 AM Eastern on Nov. 11.
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND) Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Prop: Jonathan Taylor Rushing Total
The Odds: Over 89.5 yards (-114) / Under 89.5 yards (-118)
Jonathan Taylor is having an All-Pro caliber season, and he just rushed for 172 yards against the Jets. He must be a bet to go over, right?
Not this week.
Taylor will get his, but it’s likely to come in total yards, not just on the ground. As much heat as we’ve given the Jaguars defense this season, they have been good against the run. In fact, in eight games this season, only one running back has gone for more than 85 yards, and that was Derrick Henry in Week 5.
On Sunday, Taylor’s rushing total will be more in line with what he did against the Titans recently (70 yards) or against the Ravens (53 yards).
Take the under on Taylor.
*New to NFL player props? Check out our Prop Betting 101 series for an introduction to NFL props.
Najee Harris (RB – PIT) Vs. Detroit Lions
The Prop: Najee Harris Rushing Total
The Odds: Over 81.5 yards (-118) / Under 81.5 yards (-112)
Najee Harris continues to come into his own, and the Detroit Lions continue to be terrible at almost every aspect of football, including giving up huge chunks of yards on the ground.
Running backs to go for 81 yards against Detroit include Joe Mixon, Alexander Mattison, David Montgomery, and Elijah Mitchell. And in the Lions’ last game, no single running back went for 81, but as a team, the Eagles running backs ran for 144 yards, which doesn’t include the rushing yards from Jalen Hurts.
Najee Harris starts off #MNF with a bang 💥
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/XgviCpS5fH
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 9, 2021
On the flip side, Harris has come into his own as a rusher, and the Steelers are using him as one of their primary weapons. Also, consider that against the Lions, the Steelers are expected to play with a big lead, and Harris should get even more carries than normal.
Harris has rushed for at least 81 yards in three of his last four games, including a high-water mark of 122 against the Broncos. This Sunday, he will make it four of five.
Take this over.
Javonte Williams (RB – DEN) Vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Prop: Javonte Williams Rushing Total
The Odds: Over 50.5 yards (-114)/Under 50.5 yards (-118)
Against the Cowboys last week, Broncos rookie Javonte Williams finally had his breakout game, rushing for 111 yards on 17 carries. He’s shown that kind of efficiency before, running for 48 yards on just seven carries against the Ravens and 61 yards on eight carries against the Steelers.
Now that his carries are increasing, so are his overall yardage totals, and he is an excellent bet to over 50 yards against the Eagles.
The Eagles have given up at least 50 yards to Austin Ekeler, Kenyan Drake, Leonard Fournette, Chuba Hubbard, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Ezekiel Elliott.
Yes, Williams shares carry with Melvin Gordon. But Tony Pollard ran for 60 yards in the same game Elliott ran for 95. Against the Eagles this week, there will be enough rushing yards for everyone.
Take Williams and the over.