The NFL MVP betting race currently doubles as a beauty pageant for quarterbacks overseeing Super Bowl-contending teams.
Of course, this is hardly a recent trend.
In the past 14 years, Vikings tailback Adrian Peterson is the only non-quarterback to win league MVP. Peterson prevailed in 2012, rushing for 2,097 yards — missing Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record by only 8 yards — and 12 touchdowns, just one year removed from an ACL tear.
Are there any non-QB candidates worth trumpeting in the 2021 MVP odds market? With NFL rushing yards/rushing TDs leader Jonathan Taylor (+2,000 odds at DraftKings) part of an erratic 7-6 Colts team, probably not.
Props.com analyzes the latest MVP odds heading into Week 15. The odds-on favorite should surprise no one, since he’s 44 years old, wildly popular with TV audiences, and chasing his eighth Super Bowl title.
Odds via BetMGM, Circa Sports, DraftKings, FanDuel, and PointsBet USA, and updated as of 12 noon ET on Friday, Dec. 17.
QB Tom Brady (Buccaneers)
Record: 10-3 (1st in NFC South)
BetMGM: -150
Circa Sports: -175
DraftKings: -175
FanDuel: -165
PointsBet USA: -170
2021 Stats: 4,134 passing yards, 38 total TDs, 10 INTs, 68.2% completion rate
The “Trinity of Power” argument seemingly gives Brady an airtight case for continuing to be the MVP frontrunner:
— The Bucs lead the NFL in scoring offense (31.5 points per game), passing offense (314.2 yards per game), and total offense (410.2 yards).
— Tampa Bay, Green Bay, and Arizona (all 10-3) are currently deadlocked with the NFL/NFC’s best record, with four weeks to play.
— Brady is on pace for 5,406 passing yards (318.0 per game) and 49.6 TDs (2.9 per game) — numbers that are superior to what he produced in his MVP-winning seasons of 2007, 2010, and 2017. In those three campaigns, Brady averaged 276.7 passing yards and 2.46 TDs per game.
Among his quarterbacking peers, Brady ranks first in completions, passing yards, passing yards per game, touchdown passes, and combined touchdowns. The 10-time Super Bowl participant also ranks second with explosive passing plays of 20-plus yards, trailing Raiders QB Derek Carr.
Put it all together, and it’s no wonder that Brady’s MVP case has gotten stronger since we last checked in on NFL MVP betting odds two weeks ago.
At that point, Brady was ranging from +250 to +325 at the five sportsbooks listed above. He also was in a fairly tight competition with fellow QBs Josh Allen (roughly +500), Aaron Rodgers (+600), and Patrick Mahomes (+800).
Now, only one passer has a realistic chance of denying Brady his fourth MVP trophy — and given the current odds, even that would require a sizable (Lambeau) leap.
QB Aaron Rodgers (Packers)
Record: 10-2 as starting QB (Green Bay: 10-3 overall, 1st in NFC North)
BetMGM: +550
Circa Sports: +525
DraftKings: +500
FanDuel: +500
PointsBet USA: +500
2021 Stats: 2,878 passing yards, 30 total TDs, 4 INTs, 67.3% completion rate
Rodgers — who is one Packers win or Vikings loss from clinching his seventh NFC North title as a starter — has averaged 344 yards passing and 3.7 touchdowns in his last three games.
He also has the Packers well-positioned for the NFC’s No. 1 playoff seed. Because Green Bay holds the relevant tiebreakers against the Cardinals and Bucs, Rodgers and Co. control their own destiny for the conference’s lone playoff bye.
On the downside…
— Rodgers’ offense ranks 14th in scoring offense, which is noteworthy because Green Bay led the NFL in scoring in each of Rodgers’ three previous MVP seasons (35 points per game in 2011; 30.4 ppg in 2014; 31.8 ppg in 2020).
By contrast, the Packers rank sixth in total defense (323.6 yards per game) and seventh in scoring defense (allowing 20.9 points per game). In other words, Green Bay’s success this season isn’t entirely tied to Rodgers’ right arm, as was the case in MVP seasons past.
— Unlike Brady, Rodgers hasn’t started every game. After testing positive for COVID, he missed the Week 9 clash at Kansas City, which the Packers lost 13-7 behind backup QB Jordan Love.
Is it fair to blame Rodgers for missing that game? That’s in the hands of MVP voters to decide.
Regardless of why Rodgers missed a game, the fact he did means he’s unlikely to catch Brady in the major passing categories (minus interceptions).
Rodgers’ only hope for closing the NFL MVP odds gap: Secure home-field advantage for the playoffs; put up monster numbers while doing so; and hope Brady and the Buccaneers stumble down the stretch. (The latter is highly unlikely, considering Tampa Bay closes the season against the Saints, Panthers twice, and Jets.)
The Long Shot
QB Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)
2021 Stats: 4,052 passing yards, 32 total TDs, 13 INTs, 65.6% completion rate
FanDuel, DraftKings, and PointsBet USA have Mahomes, entrenched as the No. 3 candidate at +1,000.
BetMGM has Mahomes (+1,100) sharing the third-place slot with Cardinals QB Kyler Murray — the same Murray who missed all of November with an ankle injury.
And at +1,700, Circa Sports has Mahomes lagging behind four quarterbacks (Brady, Rodgers, Murray, Matthew Stafford) … and Colts tailback Jonathan Taylor.
Bottom line: Taking a flier on Mahomes might be worth it for this reason: The 2018 NFL MVP has led the Chiefs to seven consecutive victories, and he closes the season against three playoff contenders: The Steelers (home), Bengals (road), and Broncos (road).
That’s certainly enough runway for Mahomes to lead the 10-4 Chiefs (best record in the AFC) to the AFC’s No. 1 postseason seed.
