The NFL MVP odds race currently doubles as a beauty pageant for quarterbacks overseeing Super Bowl-contending teams.
Of course, this is hardly a recent trend.
In the past 14 years, Vikings tailback Adrian Peterson is the only non-quarterback to win NFL MVP. Peterson took the honor in 2012, rushing for 2,097 yards — missing Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record by only 8 yards — and 12 touchdowns, just one year removed from an ACL tear.
Are there are any non-QB candidates worth trumpeting in the 2021 NFL MVP odds market? With Titans RB Derrick Henry presumably done for the season (foot sprain) and current rushing leader Jonathan Taylor (+1800 MVP odds) part of an erratic 6-6 Colts team, probably not.
Heading into Week 13, Props.com analyzes the latest NFL MVP odds, focusing on the current top four candidates. The current odds leader should surprise no one, since he’s 44 years old, wildly popular with TV audiences, and chasing his eighth Super Bowl title.
Odds via BetMGM, Circa Sports, DraftKings, FanDuel, and PointsBet USA, and updated as of 1 p.m. ET Dec. 3.
QB Tom Brady (Buccaneers)
Record: 8-3 (1st in NFC South)
BetMGM: +275
Circa Sports: +325
DraftKings: +350
FanDuel: +300
PointsBet USA: +250
2021 Stats: 3,403 passing yards, 31 total TDs, 9 INTs, 67.6% completion rate
Back in November, we proclaimed that Brady would capture his fourth MVP trophy if the Buccaneers finished this season with at least a 13-4 record. Our rationale: In his three previous MVP campaigns with New England (2007, 2010, and 2017), Brady’s Patriots averaged 14.3 victories (going a combined 43-5 overall).
Also, in those three seasons, Brady averaged 4,427 passing yards (276.7 per game) and 39.3 touchdowns (2.46 per game). With the Bucs this year, Brady’s on pace for 5,259 passing yards (309.4 per game) and 47.8 TDs (2.8 per contest).
Among his quarterbacking peers, Brady currently ranks first overall in completions, touchdown passes, and combined touchdowns. The Bucs star also ranks second in passing yards, passing yards per game, and explosive passing plays of 20-plus yards.
Yes, Brady has slowed down a bit lately (he’s thrown for less than 230 yards in three of his last five games, and he’s tossed six interceptions in his last four outings). But even as he’s looked more mortal in the past month, none of the other contenders have raised their level of play to the point of overtaking Brady in the MVP race.
As long as he stays healthy, somewhat productive, and keeps producing victories, the 44-year-old GOAT will be tough to catch. And because he’s “Tom Brady,” he will continue to attract the attention of the betting public.
QB Josh Allen (Bills)
Record: 7-4 (2nd in AFC East)
BetMGM: +450
Circa Sports: +500
DraftKings: +500
FanDuel: +420
PointsBet USA: +500
2021 Stats: 3,071 passing yards, 28 total TDs, 10 INTs, 66.8% completion rate
Allen has been a model of consistency for the Bills, accounting for 300 total yards and/or three touchdowns in eight of his last nine games. He’s also led the Bills to six blowout wins of 18 points or more, which means Allen had a compressed window to rack up monster stats (seeing that he wasn’t chucking the ball around with big second-half leads).
Can Allen catch Brady in the NFL MVP odds battle? Two things are working in his favor:
— The Bills have two matchups against New England (the first coming Sunday night), both of which will ultimately decide who wins the AFC East. If Allen takes care of business in both games (and looks good in the process), he should close the gap on Brady — especially since the Bucs have only one opponent remaining on their schedule that is currently above .500. And that opponent is …
— Allen goes head-to-head with Brady next Sunday in Tampa, a high-stakes game that should provide immense potential for both QBs to put up big numbers. (Caesars lists a combined total of 53.5 points on its Week 14 look-ahead odds board.) With an elite-level showing against the Bucs, Allen could tip the scales with MVP voters (especially if Buffalo wins).
QB Aaron Rodgers (Packers)
Record: 8-3 as starting QB (Green Bay: 9-3 overall, 1st in NFC North)
BetMGM: +700
Circa Sports: +500
DraftKings: +600
FanDuel: +650
PointsBet USA: +600
2021 Stats: 2,878 passing yards, 26 total TDs, 4 INTs, 66.2% completion rate
Rodgers (692 yards passing, 7 TDs since Week 11) is certainly trending toward another season of 4,500 yards passing and 40 touchdowns, all while guiding Green Bay to an easy NFC North title.
And yet, this feels demonstrably different than Rodgers’ three previous MVP campaigns. The major difference: The Packers led the NFL in scoring offense in each of Rodgers’ previous MVP seasons (35 points per game in 2011; 30.4 ppg in 2014; 31.8 ppg in 2020).
This season, Green Bay merely ranks 16th in scoring offense (23.6 ppg), generating 24 or fewer points in six of 12 games. The reason the Packers are 9-3 with a middling offense? Their defense has been sensational, ranking fifth in points allowed (20.2 per game) and seventh in total yards allowed (321.7 per game)
The good news for Rodgers: He has quickly rebounded from a one-week COVID-related absence; his two most important weapons (WR Davante Adams and RB Aaron Jones) are healthy again; and Green Bay still has a solid shot at claiming the NFC’s No. 1 playoff seed.
Perhaps most importantly, there is no runaway MVP favorite right now. That means Rodgers doesn’t have to make up a ton of ground to catch (and pass) those in front of him.
QB Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)
Record: 7-4 (1st in AFC West)
BetMGM: +800
Circa Sports: +950
DraftKings: +1200
FanDuel: +750
PointsBet USA: +800
2021 Stats: 3,200 passing yards, 26 total TDs, 11 INTs, 65.5% completion rate
While it’s true the Chiefs have won five of six games to reclaim control of the AFC West — the NFL’s only division with four winning teams — Mahomes hasn’t come close to duplicating the stats he amassed in 2018, when he ran away with the NFL MVP.
Sure, Mahomes started the season on a roll, averaging 298 yards passing and 3.8 touchdowns in his first four games. In seven games since, however, he’s delivered one three-touchdown passing effort and two 300-yard passing performances.
That said, Mahomes still has time to charge from the back of the pack and become a legit MVP threat. That’s because Kansas City has four upcoming divisional matchups (including Denver twice), and high-profile back-to-back encounters with Pittsburgh (Dec. 26) and Cincinnati (Jan. 2).
If the Chiefs can stay hot (and maybe even flirt with the AFC’s top playoff seed) the eminently likable Mahomes might garner a healthy share of MVP accolades — especially if he’s the main reason for K.C.’s strong finish.