The NFL Draft is often all about the quarterbacks. In the past 21 years, a QB was taken No. 1 overall 16 times, with a success rate ranging from Eli Manning to JaMarcus Russell.
But one thing is virtually certain when analyzing 2022 NFL Draft odds: A quarterback won’t be the first player to walk onstage April 28 on the Strip in Las Vegas. Betting on this year’s crop of signal-callers involves projecting how desperate some teams will be to reach for a player who could transform a franchise (like Manning) — or set it back for several years (like Russell).
Props.com breaks down the NFL Draft odds for some of the most interesting QB props.
All odds updated as of 2 p.m. ET on April 21.
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NFL Draft Odds: Which QB Goes First?
The race to be the first quarterback taken in the draft appears to be down to Liberty’s Malik Willis against Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett. Willis’ appeal is all about his athleticism and potential to be special. Conversely, Pickett is a more traditional, drop-back QB prospect (one dogged by questions about his small hands).
The betting market continues to lean toward Willis. The 6-foot-1 QB who began his college career at Auburn is -150 at DraftKings to be the first quarterback selected. Pickett is close behind at +150, reflecting that nobody else is really in the race. (Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder is the next option at 10-1.)
Mock drafts posted by Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay at ESPN, as well as Dane Brugler at The Athletic, all have the Carolina Panthers as the first team taking a quarterback at No. 6. But the draft experts are divided on whether it will be Pickett or Willis.
Pickett backers can point to his relationship with Panthers coach Matt Rhule, dating to when Pickett committed to Temple before Rhule left the Owls for Baylor. A CBS Sports consensus of 12 mock drafts pegs Pickett as going to Carolina at No. 6.
Those who support Willis are quick to state that Pickett simply doesn’t have the franchise-altering potential to warrant using a top-10 pick. Yes, Willis might flame out — or he could be the next Lamar Jackson.
Playing Both Sides
The price has slowly dropped on Willis to be the first QB off the board. He opened at -200 at Caesars Sportsbook, then jumped to -220. A Caesars customer laid the latter odds on Willis, wagering $4,400 to win $2,000. Pickett opened at +190 on the first QB drafted prop, and Caesars reported took two $1,000 bets to win $1,900. Caesars now has it Willis -130/Pickett +130.
Bettors happy with a tiny profit can “scalp” Willis at -130 at Caesars and Pickett at +150 at DraftKings. (A scalp refers to making two bets that will guarantee a profit.)
Of course, all those plans go up in flames if Willis and Pickett fall down the board and one team falls in love with Ridder or someone else.
In the same vein, bettors can grab a plus-money scalp if they’re convinced Carolina — or another team — will take a quarterback at No. 6.
DraftKings has Pickett as the favorite to be the No. 6 overall pick at +175. Willis is the co-third choice at +400. Interesting twist here: It doesn’t matter which team makes the sixth selection. DraftKings bettors who correctly project the player who goes No. 6 will cash their ticket.
What if Carolina (or a trade partner) passes on a QB at No. 6? The next-best odds after Pickett belong to Mississippi State offensive tackle Charles Cross at +350 and Alabama offensive tackle Evan Neal at +400 (alongside Willis).
Take Your Position
Some of the most popular props on the NFL Draft odds board are Over/Under bets for individual players. And in this odd (read: down) year for quarterbacks, Willis and Pickett present plenty of intrigue.
Neither is regarded nearly as highly as 2021 No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence, who was taken by Jacksonville. In fact, both are probably considered inferior to all five QBs taken in the first round last year.
If the Panthers don’t go for a quarterback at No. 6, Willis and Pickett could be waiting for a while — a notion that’s reflected in their draft position props. The Over/Under for Willis at DraftKings is 10.5 (-115 on both sides). Pickett is 12.5 (Over -120/Under -110).
The Atlanta Falcons, who traded former No. 1 overall pick Matt Ryan to Indianapolis last month, could possibly go for a quarterback at No. 8. The Seattle Seahawks could think likewise at No. 9 after dealing Russell Wilson to Denver (and getting Drew Lock in return). The Athletic’s Brugler has the Falcons taking Willis after Pickett goes to the Panthers. However, the ESPN mock drafts don’t have a second quarterback coming off the board until the Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 20.
Again, the betting decision comes down almost completely to handicapping Willis vs. Pickett. One quarterback will likely go in the top 10 — to the Panthers, Falcons, Seahawks or someone else — but probably only one.
Next Man Up
Ridder, who led Cincinnati’s unlikely run to the College Football Playoff last season, is now the consensus third quarterback on draft boards. Some mock drafts have even started slotting Ridder at No. 32, which is the final pick of the first round. That pick is owned by the Detroit Lions.
DraftKings has Ridder’s position prop at 28.5 (Over -130/Under +100), while FanDuel has it at 30.5 (-114 on both sides).
Ridder’s fate likely hinges on where Willis and Pickett land. If one goes to the Panthers at No. 6 and the other falls to the Steelers at No. 20, then Ridder might not go before No. 32 (or later). If another team reaches for a QB early, the Steelers could target Ridder at No. 20. That’s what The Athletic projects, with Pickett going to the Panthers and Willis to the Falcons.
Despite signing free-agent QB Mitchell Trubisky — who was drafted No. 2 overall in 2017 — Pittsburgh is definitely in the market for a quarterback to replace Ben Roethlisberger. If reports start surfacing that a team besides Carolina is looking to take a quarterback in the first half of the first round, that could be a signal to play Ridder Under on his draft position prop of 28.5.
Pick Your Poison: Three Or More?
The experts are in agreement: This is a weak draft for quarterbacks. But quarterback-starved NFL teams — of which there are many — often have trouble resisting their allure. Willis and Pickett seem to be locks to go somewhere in the first round. And Ridder, who is rising up the ranks, figures to go next. But will it be in the first round? And is there any chance a fourth passer sneaks into Round 1?
Line shopping allows bettors to choose their own risk tolerance on those very questions. Caesars Sportsbook has the number of QBs drafted in the first round pegged at 3 (Over -105/Under -125). That’s likely a push, but no harm, no foul.
DraftKings is offering 2.5 (Over -250/Under +190), with the Over being a bet that’s likely to win. But it’s a steep price to pay — especially since it’s conceivable Willis and Pickett tumble, and Ridder falls out of the first round. FanDuel is going the other way, offering 3.5 (Over +138/Under -188). If bettors don’t think teams can help themselves when it comes to quarterbacks, taking the Over would provide a solid payout at a nice plus price.
Of course, to cash that ticket at FanDuel, Willis and Pickett would have to go early. That would boost Ridder’s stock. Then it likely all would come down to how desperate the Lions and second-year coach Dan Campbell are to grab a replacement for Jared Goff, the 2016 No. 1 overall selection who (like Trubisky) has underperformed to his draft position.
Taking a QB in the first round brings extra value for this reason: Players drafted in the first round are under team control for as much as five years (thanks to a fifth-year, team-held option). Rookies drafted in the second round and beyond are signed to four-year deals.
If Willis, Pickett and Ridder are all off the board in the waning moments of Round 1, Detroit reaching for Mississippi’s Matt Corral or North Carolina’s Sam Howell … would seem like a very Lions thing to do.
