There might only be four games on this weekend’s NFL playoff schedule, but that doesn’t mean there are only four wagering opportunities. Sportsbooks from coast to coast are offering dozens of NFL Divisional Round prop bets targeting individual players and teams, as well as game situations.
That means there are countless ways in which you can get your fill of playoff action throughout the weekend.
Here are Props.com’s five favorite NFL Divisional Round props for Bengals vs. Titans, an AFC clash that kicks off the weekend and is the lone game involving teams that didn’t meet in the regular season.
Odds via BetMGM, DraftKings, The SuperBook, and PointsBet USA, and updated as of 3 p.m. ET on Jan. 20.
Cincinnati Bengals: QB Joe Burrow
The prop: 23.5 Pass Completions
The odds: Over -121/Under -110)
Before breaking down this prop, it’s important to note that PointsBet USA has pegged Burrow’s completion total lower than the rest of the market — shops such as BetMGM, DraftKings, and The SuperBook have this completion number at 24.5 (with varying degrees of juice to the Under).
So depending on where your opinion lies with Burrow’s completion total, be sure to shop around. For this exercise, though, we’ll focus on PointsBet’s number.
Burrow went 24-for-34 in last week’s wild-card victory over the Raiders. It was the third straight game (and fifth in the last six) that the 2019 Heisman Trophy winner completed 24 or or more passes.
Pretty solid lean to the Over then, right? Not exactly. See, Burrow had 24-plus completions in eight games this season (including landing on 24 twice, 25 twice and 26 once). Yet all eight of those games were played in … Cincinnati.
Yep, Burrow didn’t eclipse this number in any of his seven road contests; in fact, his five lowest completion totals all occurred as a visitor. The closest he got: 23 completions at Baltimore in Week 7 and 21 at the Jets in Week 8. Throw in Burrow’s injury-shortened rookie season, and he’s beaten this prop in just three of 13 road games.
This week, Burrow will be firing against a Titans secondary that finished tied for seventh (with the Packers) in opponents’ completion rate (62.9%). It’s also a defense that was vastly better at home than on the road. (Get used to that theme …)
Tennessee Titans: QB Ryan Tannehill
The prop: 258.5 Passing + Rushing Yards
The odds: Over -115/Under -118
Let’s first address the rushing component of this Bengals vs. Titans prop: When it comes to mobile quarterbacks, Tannehill never will be confused with Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray (or even Josh Allen). But the Titans’ signal-caller (and onetime collegiate receiver) is no Matt Ryan-like sloth, either.
Tannehill surpassed 20 rushing yards in seven of 17 games this season (and he had 17 and 18 yards in two others). So don’t be shocked if he scrambles for some chunks a few times in this one.
Obviously, though, Tannehill will need to rely mostly on his arm to hit this Over. And that’s a dicey, uh, proposition, based on Tannehill’s boom-or-bust season from the pocket. The former first-round pick of the Dolphins passed for 216 yards or fewer in 11 of 17 games.
In his other six outings, though, Tannehill collected between 265-347 passing yards. But those were the only six games in which he beat this prop. In fact, when you look at Tannehill’s nine most productive rushing games (17 yards or more), none factored into him clearing this prop number: In seven of those contests, he failed to do enough through the air to surpass 258.5 combined rushing/passing yards; in the other two, he did enough that the rushing yardage didn’t matter.
Tannehill came close to this target number in last year’s loss at the Bengals (233 passing yards, 20 rushing yards). However, here are the numbers he put up against playoff teams in 2021: Arizona (212 passing, 17 rushing); Buffalo (216 passing, 3 rushing); Kansas City (265 passing, 26 rushing); L.A. Rams (143 passing, 3 rushing); New England (93 passing, 24 rushing); Pittsburgh (153 passing, 18 rushing); and San Francisco (209 passing, 22 rushing).
Cincinnati Bengals: RB Joe Mixon
The prop: Score Anytime Touchdown
The odds: -105
If we were snarky, we’d have gone with the “How many plays will Mixon miss because he suffered a boo-boo” prop. But as you know, we’re absolutely not snarky.
Anyway, this one-way prop at DraftKings is intriguing for a couple of reasons: First, Mixon found paydirt — either through the air or on the ground — at least once in 11 of the 17 games he’s played. However, since a nine-game scoring streak during which he crossed the goal line a total of 13 times, Mixon has been held out of the end zone in four of his last five outings. (The exception: a two-TD game against the Ravens in Week 16.)
In last week’s playoff win over the Raiders, Mixon had 76 combined yards on 21 touches, but didn’t score one of the Bengals’ three touchdowns. It was the second straight game that the 2017 second-round pick failed to find the end zone. And that’s quite noteworthy for this reason:
Only once in 33 games dating to Week 7 of the 2019 season has Mixon gone three consecutive contests without scoring either a rushing or receiving touchdown.
So how did the Titans’ defense do in the touchdown-prevention department this season? Good question: Tennessee yielded the seventh-fewest passing touchdowns (24, tied with Dallas) and 11th-fewest rushing TDs (14, tied with Chicago and Washington). However … the Titans were far stingier at home (16.8 points per game allowed) than on the road (26.3).
Still more on that below …
Tennessee Titans: WR A.J. Brown
The prop: 73.5 Receiving Yards
The odds: Over -115/Under -115
Brown’s numbers were down across the board this season (63 catches, 869 yards, 5 TDs in 13 games) when compared with 2020 (70/1,075/11 in 14 games). Yet the third-year wideout was still Tannehill’s main target, especially with Julio Jones missing a huge chunk of the season.
The primary issue with Brown? Same as it is for most top-tier wide receivers (well, at least those not named Cooper Kupp): Consistency.
Brown had four or fewer receptions in seven games, but five or more in the other six. He also had more than 90 receiving yards four times — including a three-game midseason stretch with 91, 133 and 155 — but was held to less than 50 receiving yards seven times (not including a Week 3 game against the Colts in which he departed early with an injury).
Take out an 11-reception, 145-yard outburst in a key Week 16 home win over the 49ers, and Brown hasn’t amassed more than 68 receiving yards since Halloween. And in his lone career game against the Bengals (last season), the former Ole Miss star had just 24 yards on four catches.
Well, gee — can you make ANY case for the Over here? Sure, if you believe in home/road splits. Take out the Colts game, and Brown averaged 5.4 receptions and — hello! — 74.7 yards per game at home (as opposed to 5/69.2 on the road). Also, three of his top four receiving-yardage performances happened in Nashville.
Finally, the Bengals’ D has surrendered at least 250 passing yards in six of the last eight games (including 282 to the Raiders last week).
Cincinnati Bengals Vs Tennessee Titans
The prop: 43.5 Total Points Scored (alternate total)
The odds: Over -166/Under +140
This alternate total is four points lower than the consensus game total of 47.5, and there are strong arguments to be made for both sides. Let’s start with the Over:
Both teams are led by accurate quarterbacks — Burrow led the NFL with a 70.4 percent completion rate; Tannehill was 10th at 67.2% (just a tick below Tom Brady). Those quarterbacks are armed with game-breaking weapons, from Cincinnati’s Mixon and Ja’Marr Chase to Tennessee’s Brown and Derrick Henry.
Those playmakers helped the Bengals (27.1 points per game) and Titans (24.6 ppg) average nearly 52 ppg combined. What’s more, 13 of Cincinnati’s last 15 games — including last week’s 26-19 wild-card win over the Raiders — ended with 45 or more combined points.
Scoring in Titans games was much more balanced in relation to this alternate total, and yet 10 of their 17 games still featured 44 or more total points.
So why consider taking the Under on this Bengals vs. Titans prop? Well, for starters, Tennessee was a dead-Under team at home this season: Seven of nine contests at Nissan Stadium stayed low, including five of the last six and the last four in a row.
Average total points scored in Titans home games: 40.5. Final scores of the last six Titans home games: 27-3 (Chiefs), 23-21 (Saints), 22-13 (Texans), 20-0 (Jaguars), 20-17 (49ers), 34-3 (Dolphins). So five of those games finished with fewer than 44 points, while the other had exactly 44.
Meanwhile, the Under was 6-2 in Cincinnati’s road games during the regular season. Granted, two of those Unders landed on 45 combined points (34-11 and 32-13 victories). But the other four finished with 37, 34, 25 and 37 points.
