These NFL computer picks were compiled by the BetPrep.com database, focusing on line value when looking at historically similar matchups. For more details on the pick selection, scroll down to the reference section below.
We will track this model throughout the season, gleaning insights along the way.
NFL Computer Picks: Week 3
We are only tracking picks with 65% or greater in the similar matchups column. Still, there are 20 picks, including notable spreads and totals you should be paying attention to.
| Pick | Opponent | Similar Matchup |
|---|---|---|
| Steelers +4.5 | at Browns | 94% |
| Dolphins +6 | vs. Bills | 88% |
| Under 52.5 | Bills-Dolphins | 100% |
| Patriots +3 | vs. Ravens | 92% |
| Over 43.5 | Patriots-Ravens | 100% |
| Colts +6.5 | vs. Chiefs | 80% |
| Under 50 | Colts-Chiefs | 70% |
| Under 47 | Eagles-Commanders | 91% |
| Lions +6 | at Vikings | 69% |
| Under 52.5 | Lions-Vikings | 97% |
| Saints -3 | at Panthers | 67% |
| Over 40.5 | Saints-Panthers | 91% |
| Jaguars +7 | at Chargers | 80% |
| Under 47.5 | Jaguars-Chargers | 90% |
| Falcons +2 | at Seahawks | 70% |
| Over 42 | Falcons-Seahwaks | 80% |
| Cardinals +3.5 | vs. Rams | 82% |
| Under 48.5 | Rams-Cardinals | 94% |
| Dallas +1 | at Giants | 82% |
| Over 39 | Cowboys-Giants | 97% |
Insights For Week 3
You can view last week’s results in the section below. It’s worth noting that we had a 1-1 record at 100% line value last week. There are two bets with that designation for Week 3:
- Bills-Dolphins Under 52.5
- Patriots-Ravens Over 43.5
On top of that, picks with 80% or higher line value went 3-5 in Week 2. Above 80% is 7-6 on the season. In addition to the picks above, these bets made the cut for Week 2:
- Steelers +4.5 at Browns
- Dolphins +6 vs. Bills
- Patriots +3 vs. Ravens
- Colts +6.5 vs. Chiefs
- Under 47 Eagles-Commanders
- Under 52.5 Lions-Vikings
- Over 40.5 Saints-Panthers
- Under 47.5 Jaguars-Chargers
- Over 42 Falcons Seahawks
- Under 48.5 Rams-Cardinals
- Dallas +1 at Giants
- Over 39 Cowboys-Giants
The model has plenty of love for underdog picks this week, as nine of the 10 picks against the spread are on teams catching points. Of that group, the Steelers, Dolphins, Patriots, Colts, Cardinals, Jaguars, and Lions are getting more than a field goal. For those keeping track, that’s seven of the nine underdog picks. The model clearly sees value early in the season with these large(r) spreads.
NFL Computer Picks Reference
BetPrep’s NFL computer picks look through historical data to find line value on the spread or total. Essentially, it compares the spread/total with similar matchups over the years and lets you know if the number is higher or lower than a large percentage of those games. This is what the “Similar Matchup” column means in the aforementioned table.
For example, the Chargers are +4 at the Chiefs. BetPrep indicates that teams like the Chargers have a lower spread in 78% of similar matchups based on historical data. Thus, indicating line value for this pick.
You can view the model and poke around in the BetPrep database here.
NFL Computer Picks Results
Season Overall: 13-8
Spread: 8-5
Totals: 5-3
Below, you can find a table with all the results for the 2022-23 season.
| Week | Pick | Opponent | Similar Match | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 2 | Bears +10 | at Packers | 91% | loss |
| Week 2 | Seahawks +9.5 | at 49ers | 100% | loss |
| Week 2 | Over 44 | Bucs-Saints | 79% | loss |
| Week 2 | Saints +2.5 | vs. Bucs | 88% | loss |
| Week 2 | Under 46.5 | Colts/Jaguars | 78% | win |
| Week 2 | Over 40 | Browns/Jets | 70% | win |
| Week 2 | Over 40 | Steelers/Patriots | 91% | loss |
| Week 2 | Jets +6 | at Browns | 80% | win |
| Week 2 | Patriots -2 | at Steelers | 91% | win |
| Week 2 | Under 44.5 | Dolphins/Ravens | 82% | loss |
| Week 2 | Dolphins +3.5 | at Ravens | 73% | win |
| Week 2 | Under 54 | Chargers/Chiefs | 100% | win |
| Week 2 | Chargers +4 | at Chiefs | 78% | win |
| Week 1 | Patriots +3.5 | at Dolphins | 100% | loss |
| Week 1 | Steelers +6.5 | at Bengals | 100% | win |
| Week 1 | Texans +7 | vs. Colts | 82% | win |
| Week 1 | Falcons +5.5 | vs. Saints | 69% | win |
| Week 1 | Over 43 | Falcons/Saints | 91% | win |
| Week 1 | Under 52 | Raiders/Chargers | 97% | win |
| Week 1 | Chargers -3.5 | vs. Raiders | 66% | win |
| Week 1 | Packers -1.5 | at Vikings | 70% | loss |