The date: November 23, 2000. The place: Ford Field in Detroit. The moment: A relative unknown named Tom Brady grabbed his New England Patriots helmet, trotted on the field in the fourth quarter, and took his very first NFL snap.
Brady would end up throwing three passes (completing one) in an eventual 34-9 blowout loss to the Lions (yes, the Lions).
At the same time, Brady was making his NFL debut, a 4½-year-old kid was probably taking his afternoon nap some 2,500 miles away in the central California farm town of Firebaugh, California. That kid: Josh Allen.
Today, Brady is 44 and Allen is 25; both are NFL MVP candidates; and both will square off Sunday in Tampa Bay, as Brady’s Buccaneers host Allen’s Bills. Well, they’ll do so after Grandpa Brady wakes up from his afternoon nap.
Bucs-Bills is our featured NFL props matchup for Week 14, and of course, the two quarterbacks are headline our list of five props. Also included is a future first-ballot Hall of Fame tight end, an All-Pro wide receiver, and a hard-hitting (and former Pro Bowl) safety.
Odds updated as of 3:30 p.m. ET on Friday, Dec. 10.
Tom Brady Over/Under 1.5 rushing yards
The odds: Over -110/Under -115 (at BetMGM)
The case for the Over: Brady couldn’t win a 40-yard dash against a turtle when he was 24, let alone 44. But the king of the quarterback sneak can still scamper for a couple of yards without aid of an oxygen tank. To wit: Brady has picked up at least 2 rushing yards eight times in 12 games, landing on exactly 2 yards three times. Heck, he’s even amassed double-digit rushing yards three times (14, 13 and 10) — and he didn’t even need to hop on a bus to do it.
The case for the Under: The Buccaneers’ QB may be averaging a whopping 2.74 rushing yards per game. But in those four games where he failed to eclipse this prop number, he gained a total of X yards. Also, in 35 career games with the Bills when he was in New England, a much-younger Brady averaged a snail-like 1.7 rushing yards per contest.
Josh Allen Over/Under 340.5 combined passing and rushing yards
The odds: Over -115/Under -115 (at BetMGM, DraftKings and The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: Allen is averaging 268 passing yards and 35.2 rushing yards per game this season, a total (303.2) that obviously falls well short of this number. This week, though, Allen is facing a defense that has improved mightily against the pass in recent weeks (more on that below). However, it’s a defense that has yet to see a dual-threat QB of Allen’s caliber. (The only other “mobile” QB Tampa Bay has gone up against is the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts — and Hurts can’t throw.)
The case for the Under: Facts are facts: Allen has combined for 340-plus passing/rushing yards only four times this season, and just once in the last six games. Also, in his two previous trips to Florida, Allen accounted for 214 rushing/passing yards at Miami (35-0 win) and 314 rushing/passing yards at Jacksonville (9-6 loss). Since getting shredded by Dak Prescott in Week 1 (403 passing yards, 13 rushing yards) and Matthew Stafford in Week 3 (343 passing yards, -2 rushing yards), the Bucs haven’t let a single QB beat this prop number.
Rob Gronkowski Over/Under 4.5 receptions
The odds: Over +105/Under -140 (at DraftKings)
The case for the Over: With 69 receptions in 15 games, the Bucs’ TE has averaged just over 4.5 receptions (4.6) against the Bills in his career. And while the oft-injured Gronk has only gone over this prop number just three times in seven games this season, he’s landed right on four receptions three other times. He’s also averaging six catches in three home games (8, 4, 6) as opposed to 3.8 catches in four road games (4, 0, 7, 4).
The case for the Under: The Bills own the NFL’s top pass defense, yielding just 165.3 yards per game. What’s more, Buffalo leads the league in the fewest completions allowed (214, or 17.8 per game) and completion percentage-against (57.7), among other categories. (Of course, it helps when you face an opponent that only puts the ball in the air three times, as the Patriots did last week). Still, only seven opponents have caught at least five passes against the Bills in the last seven weeks — and all but two landed right on five.
Stefon Diggs Over/Under 81.5 receiving yards
The odds: Over -115/Under -115 (at BetMGM, DraftKings and The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: The gifted Bills WR has been held under this number in three straight games since exploding for 162 yards against the Jets in Week 10. However, game situations (blowout loss to the Colts, blowout win over the Saints) hurt Diggs’ production potential in two of those contests, while awful weather kept him down last week against New England. This week’s game is expected to be a shootout (the Bucs-Bills total of 53.5 is the highest on the board), which means Diggs should have plenty of opportunities to pile up yards.
The case for the Under: Again, we go to the facts: During his All-Pro season in 2020, Diggs tallied more than 81 receiving yards 11 times in 16 games (and he topped 100 on seven occasions). This season, he’s gone over this number just four times in 12 contests (against the Texans, Titans, Jaguars, and Jets). Of that group, only Houston ranks in the top half of the league in pass defense (and that’s only because the Texans are usually getting blown out and opponents stop throwing). The Bucs’ secondary, meanwhile, has rebounded from a shaky start to the season. They haven’t given up more than 285 passing yards in eight games, holding five opponents to 226 yards or fewer.
Micah Hyde Over/Under 4.5 total tackles
The odds: Over -130/Under -105 (at BetMGM and DraftKings)
The case for the Over: The Bills’ safety has gone over this number in less than half (five) of his team’s 12 games this season. However, he’s yet to run up against a high-octane offense with as many weapons as Tampa Bay (Brady, Gronk, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette). So the chances figure to be there for Hyde to get his nose dirty. He just needs to make sure he channels his tacklin’ fuel.
The case for the Under: Hyde racked up 6, 7, and 5 total tackles in his first three games against the Steelers, Dolphins, and Washington. Since then, however, he’s amassed more than 4 tackles just twice in seven games. He’s also done it just twice in Buffalo’s six road contests.
Week 13 Results (Chargers vs. Bengals)
Justin Herbert Over/Under 0.5 interceptions (OVER – 1 INT)
Joe Burrow longest completion Over/Under 36.5 yards (UNDER – 32 yards)
Austin Ekeler Over/Under 13.5 rushing attempts (OVER – 14 rushes)
Ja’Marr Chase Over/Under 64.5 receiving yards (UNDER – 52 yards
Chargers-Bengals Over/Under 9.5 first-quarter points (OVER – 16 points)
