In a strange twist of running back fate, none of the top four running backs in Week 10 lost. However, two of them tied, D’Andre Swift and Najee Harris, in last Sunday’s dubious battle between Pittsburgh and Detroit. Who knows what’s in store for Week 11’s top backs? Let’s take a look at three NFL betting situations to target for running back props.
All odds courtesy of BetPrep updated 12:00 PM Eastern on Nov. 18.
Minnesota Vikings: Dalvin Cook
The Prop: Dalvin Cook Rushing Yards vs. Green Bay Packers
The Odds: Over 89.5 yards (-111) / Under 89.5 yards (-119)
Running the ball with Dalvin Cook has been a priority for the Vikings, and in their last two wins, he got 24 carries and 29 carries. But when Minnesota plays from behind and ultimately loses – which is how the game against the Packers is likely to go – Cook’s carries tend to dry up.
Plus, this game will be indoors and not at Lambeau Field in the winter, meaning that there won’t be a need to grind it out. The Vikings passing game, which ranks ninth in the NFL, should move the ball.
Add it all together – a dome stadium, playing to keep up with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, and a Packers defense that has only allowed one running back all season to go over 83 yards – and this looks like an under for Cook on Sunday.
Indianapolis Colts: Jonathan Taylor
The Prop: Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards at Buffalo Bills
The Odds: Over 82.5 yards (-118) / Under 82.5 yards (-114)
The surface narrative tells us that the Bills have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and you can’t run the ball effectively against them.
That is kind of true, but also false.
The Bills do rank third in the NFL, allowing just 83.9 yards rushing per game. But they have played games against rushing offenses that rank 30th, 31st, and 32nd (twice). When the Bills played the Titans, who rank seventh in running the football, Derrick Henry exploded for 143 yards.
Jonathan Taylor is a nominee for @FedEx Ground Player of the Week.
(evergreen tweet)
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) November 15, 2021
Now come the Colts, who rank sixth in the NFL in rushing and boast Jonathan Taylor and his league-leading 937 rushing yards. Taylor has rushed for 145, 107, 70, 172, and 116 yards in his last five games.
If you like Jonathan Taylor, you love this over.
Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Mixon
The Prop: Joe Mixon Rushing Yards at Las Vegas Raiders
The Odds: Over 73.5 yards (-118) / Under 73.5 yards (-112)
Well-rested and coming off their bye, the Bengals travel to Las Vegas in need of a win and in need of getting their running game back on track. In the previous three games, Joe Mixon has rushed for 59, 33, and 64 yards.
Luckily, if you need to get your running game right, there are few teams better to face than the Raiders. They currently rank 27th in stopping the run and have allowed big running games to Devontae Booker, Austin Ekeler, Khalil Herbert, and most recently, 144 total yards to Darrel Williams.
Mixon, who averages 71 yards per game, will have a big Sunday in Las Vegas.
