The top five passers-by yardage in Week 8 were Mike White, Tom Brady, Cooper Rush, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Davis Mills. How’d that bum Brady get in with that group of future Hall of Famers? Safe to say, no one got those five right last week. So let’s take another shot with the best quarterback NFL betting props for Week 9.
Justin Fields – Over 178.5 Passing Yards
Justin Fields isn’t an obvious over, especially against the Steelers, but a few factors are at play here.
First, he’s been hovering around the 175-180 yard figure for four of the last five weeks, and twice has gone over. Second, Allen Robinson did not get traded on Tuesday, so Chicago still has its complement of wide receivers, and Fields has his best downfield weapon. And third, as good as the Pittsburgh defense has been, if it were to hold Fields under 179 yards, that would be their second-lowest total allowed all season.
Over the Steelers’ last three games, Baker Mayfield threw for 225, Geno Smith got to 209, and Teddy Bridgewater hit 288. Fields will also get to 200 yards passing, hitting the over with room to spare. There’s value in this NFL betting prop.
Ryan Tannehill – Under 245.5 Passing Yards
Even without Derrick Henry, all signs point to the Titans winning the AFC South. But the offense is going to take a step back, and it’s going to change both their running and passing games.
What makes Tennessee so dangerous is the play-action pass. There are no running backs on the roster with more than seven carries this season, allowing the Rams to play straight-up defense, cheating to the passing game, and they will dare the Titans to run.
Tannehill has been under 245 in two of his last four games anyway, and with no threat at running back, those numbers will drop even further. And oh yeah, the Rams defense just added yet another future Hall of Famer to the pass rush in the person of Von Miller, who is planning to play on Sunday.
The Rams are all-in on getting to the Super Bowl, and it will start with a dominating performance on Sunday. Take the under on Tannehill.
Kyler Murray – Under 279.5 Passing Yards
The team competing with the Rams for the NFC West is Arizona. But there are reasons for concern as good as they have been in getting out to a 7-1 record to begin the season.
Not that they are expected to lose to the 49ers. They are the favorites. But Kyler Murray, who looked like an MVP to begin the season, has been coming back to earth with each new performance.
Murray hadn’t thrown for more than 279 yards since September when he went for 316 yards against the Jaguars. He’s averaged 254 passing yards over the last five games, and his interceptions have taken a sharp uptick, with three in the previous two weeks.
The 49er defense hasn’t given up more than 261 yards since Week 1, and they won’t do it this week. Take the under.