The NFL season is here, which means it’s a great time to dive into some of the selections available across the sportsbook industry. You can bet on sides and totals, but player prop bets have been gaining popularity over the past few years. That includes anytime touchdown scorer bets.
Below, we’ll run through our anytime touchdown scorer predictions and best bets, then outline a strategy guide to help you become a profitable bettor when it comes to anytime TD scorer props.
Anytime TD Scorer Predictions: Week 16 Main Slate
Here’s a quick rundown of some of our favorite anytime touchdown markets.
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Trey McBride More Than 0.5 Rush + Receiving TDs (+102)
According to Pro Football Reference, the Panthers have tied for the ninth-most receiving yards per game (56.9) allowed to tight ends, and yielded the most touchdowns (10) to them. It’s a mouthwatering matchup for Trey McBride.
The third-year pro hasn’t had a receiving touchdown this year. However, McBride has scored a rushing touchdown and another when he recovered a fumble in the end zone. McBride’s lack of receiving touchdowns doesn’t align with his otherwise excellent production.
According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 51 tight ends with at least 125 routes this year, McBride is first in route participation rate (86.6%), third in air yards share (24.5%), first in target share (26.6%), tied for second in targets per route run (0.27), first in first-read percentage (32.6%), second in receptions (89), first in receiving yards per game (72.2), and tied for ninth in end zone targets (five). It’s downright absurd McBride hasn’t scored a receiving touchdown this year.
However, don’t just believe me. Pro Football Focus (PFF) also says he should have reached paydirt. According to their expected touchdowns calculations, McBride’s work this year should have produced 5.8 receiving touchdowns. McBride can start his touchdown regression process this week by finding paydirt against the Panthers.
Where to play: Trey McBride More Than 0.5 Rush + Receiving TDs | Underdog
Justin Jefferson More Than 0.5 Rush + Receiving TDs
Do you remember when Justin Jefferson matched his career-long touchdown drought of six games? Minnesota’s stud No. 1 wideout spectacularly snapped that streak in Week 14, reaching paydirt twice. Jefferson wasn’t resting on his laurels last week. Instead, Jefferson scored another touchdown and left meat on the bone, getting stopped at the one-yard line and dropping a would-be touchdown.
Jefferson began the year with a four-game touchdown streak out of the gate and touchdowns in five of his first six games before his drought. He’s now sandwiched a two-game touchdown streak with his early-season heater around his drought. Jefferson has scored eight touchdowns this year, and PFF has him at 8.4 expected touchdowns. So, Jefferson hasn’t been running lucky.
He also has excellent underlying data. Among 99 wide receivers with at least 200 routes this season, Jefferson is tied for 10th in air yards share (39.1%), third in target share (27.7%), tied for eighth in first-read percentage (33.2%), seventh in receptions (82), fourth in receiving yards per game (88.8), tied for fifth in touchdown receptions (eight), tied for sixth in end zone targets (12), and tied for third in touchdown receptions (six) on end zone targets.
Jefferson has a tasty matchup this week. The Seahawks are tied for the eighth-most touchdown receptions (15) allowed to wideouts this season. Seattle has allowed more than a receiving touchdown per game to wide receivers, and Jefferson should add to their woes by scoring another touchdown against them in Week 16.
Where to play: Justin Jefferson More Than 0.5 Rush + Receiving TDs | Underdog
Editor’s Note: Be sure to check out all of our Week 16 content linked below.
- Week 16: Content Hub
- Week 16: First TD Props
- Week 16: Anytime TD Props
- Week 16: Top Player Props
- Week 16: Last TD Props
Anytime TD Scorer: Overview & Guide
In this section, we dive into everything you need to know about touchdown scoring props.
We’ll touch on exactly what they cover and a few pieces of basic strategy to help you with your selections.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Meaning
The title is pretty self-explanatory, but anytime touchdown props refer to betting on a specific player to score a touchdown during any point of the game. These props are primarily focused on offensive players, but they can refer to special teamers and defenders as well. That said, I wouldn’t spend your time on those. Defensive and special teams touchdowns are more or less random, so trying to predict when they’re going to happen is a fool’s errand.
However, predicting rushing and receiving touchdowns is a bit more manageable. Most of the quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who are expected to see the field will get an anytime TD scorer prop posted to the various sportsbooks. The top players – aka the players who are expected to score most often – will often be available at less than even money. However, the players who don’t score regularly are often available at big plus-money payouts.
That makes betting on anytime touchdown scorers a two-pronged approach. You bet on guys like Jonathan Taylor and Cooper Kupp, and they will often win you that bet. However, the payout will be small, and the weeks where they don’t score can do more damage to your bankroll.
Betting on someone like the team’s No. 4 receiver works in the opposite way. You’re going to lose those anytime TD scorer bets far more often, but the losses will be smaller. You’ll also be rewarded with a far greater payout when they score.
Both strategies have merit, and they can be combined on a weekly basis.
Do Passing Touchdowns Count For Anytime Touchdown Scorer?
The answer is no. Anytime touchdown scorer props refer to the player who physically scores the touchdown. That can be a runner carrying the ball across the goal line or a player catching the ball in the end zone. That means that on passing touchdowns, the receiver is credited with the score.
However, that doesn’t mean that you can’t bet on quarterbacks in this market. Quarterbacks are typically priced pretty fairly in this market, but they score more rushing touchdowns than you might imagine. In fact, two of the four most profitable anytime TD scorers last season were actually quarterbacks: Ryan Tannehill (+13 units) and Zach Wilson (+12 units). Tannehill rushed for a touchdown in seven separate games last season, while Wilson did it in four of his 13 games. Their prices varied on a week-to-week basis – they were typically between +350 and +550 to score – but it’s pretty clear that they were underpriced all year.
If you’re looking to bet on passing touchdowns, you can do that too. They’re available in their own separate prop category.
2+ Touchdowns Bet Meaning
If betting on a player to score once isn’t enough to rev your engine, you can also bet on a player to score multiple touchdowns. These bets work the same as the anytime touchdown scorer props, but you need the chosen player to score at least two times. They can score the touchdowns in different ways – rushing, receiving, or on special teams – but they’re going to need to get the ball into the end zone twice.
Like the anytime TD scorer props, these are geared toward the star players. Someone like Jonathan Taylor might be +300 to score at least two touchdowns – something he did five times last season – but teammate Parris Campbell might be +2000.
No Touchdown Scorer Bets
These bets hit rarely, but they offer a big payday. These bets only win where there are no touchdowns scored in a given game.
There were 272 games played during the 2021-22 NFL regular season, and only two of them went scoreless. Interestingly enough, both scoreless games featured one of the best offensive teams in the NFL: The Saints and Bucs didn’t score a touchdown on December 19th, while the Bills and Jaguars failed to score a touchdown on November 7th.
Two out of 272 is a minuscule number. It works out to 0.735%, which puts the true odds at greater than +100000. There may be times when that bet is worth considering, but I wouldn’t blame you if you ignored them altogether.
Anytime TD Scorer: Strategy Tips
There’s no magic bullet when it comes to betting anytime touchdown scorer props. Football is still a volatile sport, but there are things you can do to improve your win rate.
Pay Attention To Injuries
This is the biggest piece of advice that I can give to any bettor in any sport. Injuries create uncertainty, and uncertainty often leads to value.
For anytime touchdown scorer props, injuries can create situations where backup players are going to see more playing time. The most obvious example is a backup running back moving into a starting role, but it works with receivers as well.
Occasionally, you can time these injuries with the sportsbook. If you act quickly, you can occasionally get prop bets in before the sportsbooks have the opportunity to adjust their lines. If you can do that, it’s one of the easiest ways to get closing line value.
You can also act before the news becomes official. If you bet on the backup running back while the starting running back is questionable, you’ll ultimately get a ton of value if the starter is ruled out. Even if he isn’t, you’ll probably still have a pretty fair value on the backup player.
Where To Place Anytime TD Props
The following sportsbooks have more than enough options to satisfy your TD prop needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to Anytime TD props.
On top of that, our team spent the time to find the best available bonus offers at each listed sportsbook. If you are new to any of these betting apps, be sure to use our exclusive links and promo codes to claim your free bets:
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Top Sportsbooks For Anytime TD Props
- Fliff (available in 40+ states)
- Bet365 (click here for our full review)
- DraftKings Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- FanDuel Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- Caesars Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- BetMGM (click here for our full review)
- BetRivers (click here for our full review)
Check out some of the Props.com library of betting guides linked below: