The NFL season is here, which means it’s a great time to dive into some of the selections available across the sportsbook industry. You can bet on sides and totals, but player prop bets have been gaining popularity over the past few years. That includes anytime touchdown scorer bets.
Below, we’ll run through our anytime touchdown scorer predictions and best bets, then outline a strategy guide to help you become a profitable bettor when it comes to anytime TD scorer props.
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Anytime TD Scorer Predictions: Super Bowl
Here’s a quick rundown of some of our favorite anytime touchdown markets.
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Jalen Hurts More Than 0.5 Rush + Receiving TDs (0.9x)
Any concerns about Jalen Hurts’ knee after he banged it up in the Divisional Round of the playoffs seemed to be misplaced. In the NFC Championship Game, Hurts had 10 rush attempts and three rushing touchdowns.
Hurts hasn’t been a stranger to the end zone this season. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Hurts has scored 18 rushing touchdowns and handled 45.8% of Philadelphia’s rush attempts inside the five-yard line in 18 games. Philadelphia’s dual-threat quarterback also left the Week 16 contest against the Commanders early with a concussion.
Hurts is a true batting ram near the goal line. According to FantasyPros, he had 19 rush attempts and 11 rushing touchdowns inside the five-yard line in the regular season. Additionally, his four rushing touchdowns in the playoffs have been 44, one, nine, and one yards.
The Eagles haven’t minced their play-calling in scoring territory, either. Philadelphia has had a 69.1% rush rate on 94 plays inside the 10-yard line this year and 93.3% on 15 (one pass and 14 rushes) in the playoffs.
The Chiefs did an excellent job stuffing Buffalo’s tush pushes in the AFC Championship Game. Yet, they’ve still allowed 135.8 rushing yards per game, 5.29 yards per carry, and six rushing touchdowns in their past six meaningful games (Week 14 through Week 17 and the playoffs). So, Hurts should have a chance to punch in a touchdown if the Eagles knock on the doorstep of paydirt.
Where to play: Jalen Hurts More Than 0.5 Rush + Receiving TDs | Underdog
Travis Kelce More Than 0.5 Rush + Receiving TDs (1.11x)
Travis Kelce’s age has started to show up to an extent in the regular season. The veteran tight end has had two of his least productive and efficient regular seasons in the previous two years.
Yet, Kelce has a knack for flipping the switch on in the playoffs. He had a quiet effort against the Bills in the AFC Championship Game, tallying only four targets, two receptions, and 19 scoreless receiving yards. However, Kelce barbecued the Texans for seven receptions, 117 receiving yards, and one touchdown reception on eight targets in the Divisional Round.
The AFC Championship Game showing was a playoff outlier for Kelce. According to Pro Football Reference, Kelce has had 174 receptions (7.3 per game), 2,039 receiving yards (85.0 per game), and 20 receiving touchdowns in 24 career playoff games.
Kelce scored only one touchdown in four playoff games without Patrick Mahomes. In 20 playoff games with Mahomes, Kelce scored in 14 contests. It’s not a secret that Mahomes has a mind meld with Kelce, but teams have still been unable to keep the veteran tight end out of the end zone.
Even in the twilight of Kelce’s career, he’s one of just three players Mahomes has targeted in the end zone in the playoffs, and he was the only player of the trio to score on his end zone target. Finally, the Chiefs have passed on 57.8% of their 90 plays inside the 10-yard line this year, enhancing the odds of a pass-catcher scoring a touchdown for the Chiefs. Why shouldn’t Kelce be that pass-catcher on the receiving end of another Mahomes passing touchdown?
Where to play: Travis Kelce More Than 0.5 Rush + Receiving TDs | Underdog
Editor’s Note: Be sure to check out all of our Super Bowl content linked below.
- Super Bowl: Content Hub
- Super Bowl: First TD Props
- Super Bowl: Top Player Props
- Super Bowl: Last TD Props
Anytime TD Scorer: Overview & Guide
In this section, we dive into everything you need to know about touchdown scoring props.
We’ll touch on exactly what they cover and a few pieces of basic strategy to help you with your selections.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Meaning
The title is pretty self-explanatory, but anytime touchdown props refer to betting on a specific player to score a touchdown during any point of the game. These props are primarily focused on offensive players, but they can refer to special teamers and defenders as well. That said, I wouldn’t spend your time on those. Defensive and special teams touchdowns are more or less random, so trying to predict when they’re going to happen is a fool’s errand.
However, predicting rushing and receiving touchdowns is a bit more manageable. Most of the quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who are expected to see the field will get an anytime TD scorer prop posted to the various sportsbooks. The top players – aka the players who are expected to score most often – will often be available at less than even money. However, the players who don’t score regularly are often available at big plus-money payouts.
That makes betting on anytime touchdown scorers a two-pronged approach. You bet on guys like Jonathan Taylor and Cooper Kupp, and they will often win you that bet. However, the payout will be small, and the weeks where they don’t score can do more damage to your bankroll.
Betting on someone like the team’s No. 4 receiver works in the opposite way. You’re going to lose those anytime TD scorer bets far more often, but the losses will be smaller. You’ll also be rewarded with a far greater payout when they score.
Both strategies have merit, and they can be combined on a weekly basis.
Do Passing Touchdowns Count For Anytime Touchdown Scorer?
The answer is no. Anytime touchdown scorer props refer to the player who physically scores the touchdown. That can be a runner carrying the ball across the goal line or a player catching the ball in the end zone. That means that on passing touchdowns, the receiver is credited with the score.
However, that doesn’t mean that you can’t bet on quarterbacks in this market. Quarterbacks are typically priced pretty fairly in this market, but they score more rushing touchdowns than you might imagine. In fact, two of the four most profitable anytime TD scorers last season were actually quarterbacks: Ryan Tannehill (+13 units) and Zach Wilson (+12 units). Tannehill rushed for a touchdown in seven separate games last season, while Wilson did it in four of his 13 games. Their prices varied on a week-to-week basis – they were typically between +350 and +550 to score – but it’s pretty clear that they were underpriced all year.
If you’re looking to bet on passing touchdowns, you can do that too. They’re available in their own separate prop category.
2+ Touchdowns Bet Meaning
If betting on a player to score once isn’t enough to rev your engine, you can also bet on a player to score multiple touchdowns. These bets work the same as the anytime touchdown scorer props, but you need the chosen player to score at least two times. They can score the touchdowns in different ways – rushing, receiving, or on special teams – but they’re going to need to get the ball into the end zone twice.
Like the anytime TD scorer props, these are geared toward the star players. Someone like Jonathan Taylor might be +300 to score at least two touchdowns – something he did five times last season – but teammate Parris Campbell might be +2000.
No Touchdown Scorer Bets
These bets hit rarely, but they offer a big payday. These bets only win where there are no touchdowns scored in a given game.
There were 272 games played during the 2021-22 NFL regular season, and only two of them went scoreless. Interestingly enough, both scoreless games featured one of the best offensive teams in the NFL: The Saints and Bucs didn’t score a touchdown on December 19th, while the Bills and Jaguars failed to score a touchdown on November 7th.
Two out of 272 is a minuscule number. It works out to 0.735%, which puts the true odds at greater than +100000. There may be times when that bet is worth considering, but I wouldn’t blame you if you ignored them altogether.
Anytime TD Scorer: Strategy Tips
There’s no magic bullet when it comes to betting anytime touchdown scorer props. Football is still a volatile sport, but there are things you can do to improve your win rate.
Pay Attention To Injuries
This is the biggest piece of advice that I can give to any bettor in any sport. Injuries create uncertainty, and uncertainty often leads to value.
For anytime touchdown scorer props, injuries can create situations where backup players are going to see more playing time. The most obvious example is a backup running back moving into a starting role, but it works with receivers as well.
Occasionally, you can time these injuries with the sportsbook. If you act quickly, you can occasionally get prop bets in before the sportsbooks have the opportunity to adjust their lines. If you can do that, it’s one of the easiest ways to get closing line value.
You can also act before the news becomes official. If you bet on the backup running back while the starting running back is questionable, you’ll ultimately get a ton of value if the starter is ruled out. Even if he isn’t, you’ll probably still have a pretty fair value on the backup player.
Where To Place Anytime TD Props
The following sportsbooks have more than enough options to satisfy your TD prop needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to Anytime TD props.
On top of that, our team spent the time to find the best available bonus offers at each listed sportsbook. If you are new to any of these betting apps, be sure to use our exclusive links and promo codes to claim your free bets:
Top Sportsbooks For Anytime TD Props
- DraftKings Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- FanDuel Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- Caesars Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- BetMGM (click here for our full review)
Check out some of the Props.com library of betting guides linked below:
