The major offseason activity is in the books. So, it’s time to check around the sportsbook landscape, shopping for the best team futures. Armed with a wealth of information, now is the time to get some division winner tickets and monitor line movement as the offseason progresses. Attentive bettors usually nab the best odds in these markets months before the season starts.
The NFC East, NFC North, and NFC South have been thrown under the microscope. The final betting preview for the NFC is a doozy. The NFC West is projected to be competitive.
After perusing the odds at multiple sportsbooks, DraftKings Sportsbook has the best odds for my favorite NFC West bet. However, it pays to look around and get the longest odds if you’re leaning in a different direction.
NFC West Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | +125 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +150 |
| Arizona Cardinals | +400 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +1800 |
Odds via DraftKings as of August 12.
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Los Angeles Rams Odds To Win NFC West: +125
The Rams are defending NFC West and, more importantly, the defending Super Bowl champs. However, they’re not merely running it back. Odell Beckham Jr. is a free agent recovering from a torn ACL in the Super Bowl. So, even if he rejoins the Rams, he won’t see the field until late in the year.
They also traded veteran wide receiver Robert Woods to the Tennessee Titans. Though, he tore his ACL in November and didn’t contribute in the postseason. They’ve replaced him with Allen Robinson. However, A-Rob is coming off a disastrous campaign. Still, the Chicago Bears were a roaring tire fire on offense. Thus, it’s understandable to have optimism about a rebound.
The glamour positions get most of the attention, but the most significant change on offense was the retirement of tackle Andrew Whitworth. Fellow offensive lineman Austin Corbitt also left in free agency. So, there’s overturn on the offensive line.
On defense, Von Miller signed a massive contract with the Buffalo Bills, and cornerback Darious Williams jetted for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Their most notable addition on that side of the ball was linebacker Bobby Wagner. In all, there’s a significant overturn on both sides of the ball.
The Rams fought tooth and nail to win the championship after a grueling battle for the NFC West crown. They finished 12-5, one game ahead of the Arizona Cardinals and two games better than the San Francisco 49ers. According to Pro-Football-Reference, they outscored opponents by 88 points, only five points better than Arizona’s point differential and the third-highest mark in the NFC.
In addition, according to Football Outsiders (FO), the Rams were fifth in total Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and seventh in Weighted DVOA. However, at Pro Football Focus (PFF), they earned their highest team grade.
Nevertheless, the odds for the Rams winning the division are fair. However, I’m not crazy about betting on them to win the NFC West. The competition is stiff, the personnel changes are concerning, and Matthew Stafford had an injection in his throwing elbow after the Super Bowl for an issue he managed last year is a reason for pause.
San Francisco 49ers Odds To Win NFC West: +160
The 49ers reached the NFC Championship game after a 10-5 regular season in which they outscored opponents by 62 points. They also were sixth in total DVOA, fifth in Weighted DVOA, and fourth in PFF overall grade. The advanced metrics were excellent, and they have a strong nucleus intact.
Still, there’s the elephant in the room. After trading multiple first-round picks to move up and pop quarterback Trey Lance, he spent most of last year on the pine, relieving an injured Jimmy Garoppolo for a half and two starts. Both quarterbacks are on the roster, but the guard appears to be changing.
Jimmy G was in the trade rumors before the draft, but nothing came to fruition. Yet, there’s a reasonable explanation other than an unwillingness to turn the reigns over to the sophomore quarterback. Garoppolo had shoulder surgery in March. As he gets healthier, teams could become interested in trading for him. Further, head coach Kyle Shanahan said he “expects” the team to trade Garoppolo.
The Lance era should be underway out of the chute this year, adding a running element to the offense as a dual-threat quarterback. But, of course, there could be early-season growing pains. The range of outcomes for Lance’s performance is vast. If he hits the ground running, the 49ers could overtake the Rams for the division. Still, I’m also not crazy about betting on that outcome.
Arizona Cardinals Odds To Win NFC West: +400
After voicing trepidation about betting on the Rams or the 49ers to win the NFC West, I must love the Cardinals, right? Not exactly. They were narrowly edged out for the division title last year. Moreover, their point differential (+83) was only five points worse than the Rams’.
Unfortunately, their other advanced measures weren’t as impressive. The Cardinals were 10th in total DVOA and 16th in Weighted DVOA. Sadly, it gets worse. PFF graded them 20th. The negativity doesn’t end there.
Arizona lost Chase Edmonds and Christian Kirk in free agency on offense, removing elite speed from the club. They also lost supremely talented pass-rusher, Chandler Jones. The Cardinals seemingly traded their first-round pick for a speed replacement for Kirk, acquiring Marquise Brown from the Baltimore Ravens. Not so fast.
After the NFL Draft, the NFL announced a six-game suspension for DeAndre Hopkins. Fortunately, the club already had Rondale Moore, their 2021 second-round pick, as an option to help ease the loss of Kirk, and Hollywood Brown will aid in filling Nuk’s void. In addition, Brown and Kyler Murray were college teammates. So, they should quickly get on the same page. Regardless, Hollywood is a vastly different stylistic wideout than Nuk.
Additionally, Arizona’s offense and Murray’s play took a steep nosedive after Nuk’s season-ending injury in Week 14. The Cardinals went 1-4 in the last five games, including the postseason, besting 23 points only two times. Yikes. Nuk’s six-game absence will be tough to overcome in a division that’s loaded at the top. So, no. I don’t like the Cards as a pick to win the NFC West. Instead, their +180 odds to finish third offered in DraftKings’ division specials section is enticing.
Seattle Seahawks Odds To Win NFC West: +1000
The Seahawks are the dark horse to win the division. I haven’t voiced strong convictions about a division winner yet. So am I drinking the Kool-Aid with old-man Pete Carroll and his dinosaur ball winning the division? Ha. Of course not.
Seattle traded Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos, receiving Drew Lock, Noah Fant, Shelby Harris, and a bounty of draft picks in return. Lock and Geno Smith are battling for the starting gig.
Credit to the Seahawks for having a +29 point differential last year. They were easily last in the division, and Lock and Smith are massive downgrades from Wilson. In Carroll’s perfect world, Rashaad Penny and second-round pick Kenneth Walker will lead a productive run-first offense. Unfortunately, that’s an unrealistic expectation. Anything other than a basement finish for the Seahawks would be shocking.
NFC West Predictions & Best Bet
When a division is as wide open as the NFC West with a couple of talented rosters like the Rams and 49ers, swinging for the fences is appealing. Lance could faceplant this year. However, he could also improve as the season progresses, peaking in the postseason.
Lance’s dynamic running ability and cannon arm provide Shanahan with play-calling opportunities Jimmy G didn’t. Last year, they lost 20-17 to the Rams in the NFC Championship. So, if they take a step forward with their second-year quarterback, they can win the conference and punch their ticket to the Super Bowl.
Best Bet: San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC Conference (+750 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bet $5 On NFL, Get $200 In Free Bets
Football is back! DraftKings is running an exclusive offer leading up to kickoff.
Simply bet $5+ on any NFL or NCAAF game and get $200 in free bets instantly. No matter if your wager wins or loses.
This promotion expires on September 19 – so act now!
Tackle this special offer through our exclusive link here.
More Division Odds & Predictions
Check out Josh’s predictions from across the other NFL divisions:
