Here we go with our Nevada vs. New Mexico State predictions and best bets for Week 0 of the college football season.
Football is back! Well, kind of. We have a small appetizer on Saturday, but this Nevada vs. New Mexico State clash is an intriguing game within the abbreviated slate. The Aggies had a rough season in 2021, but Nevada has plenty of turnover heading into this campaign. Can New Mexico State keep it close?
We’ll break that down along with our Nevada vs. New Mexico predictions for the opening weekend of college football.
Nevada vs. New Mexico State Predictions
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Nevada vs. New Mexico State Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | -9 (-110) | -330 | O 50.5 (-110) |
| @ NM State | +9 (-110) | +275 | U 50.5 (-110) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 4 p.m. on Aug. 24
Game Info
- Date: Saturday, Aug. 27
- Time: 2 p.m. ET
- Location: Aggie Memorial Stadium
- TV: ESPN2
Nevada vs. New Mexico State Trends
Let’s take a look at some relevant betting trends for Nevada vs. New Mexico State.
- Nevada finished 8-5 overall and 5-3 in the Mountain West in 2021.
- Independent New Mexico State finished 2-10 overall in 2021
- It will be head coaches Jerry Kill and Ken Wilson’s debut with their teams.
- As of Wednesday afternoon, DraftKings reports that 32% of tickets and 81% of the money are on the underdog New Mexico State against the spread.
- DraftKings also reports that 62% of betting tickets and 69% of the handle have selected Over 50.5 total points.
Nevada Comes In With A Depleted Roster from 2021
It’s a new era for the Wolfpack as they bring on a new coaching staff while replacing several prominent players. Former head coach Jay Norvell left for Moutain West rival Colorado State and took multiple players with him.
First-year head coach Ken Wilson will have the challenge of replacing graduate quarterback Carson Strong, who finished last year with 4,185 passing yards and 36 touchdowns.
The question is, who will be the starter for the team? Last year’s backup, Nate Cox, and Oklahoma State transfer Shane Illingworth were the two battling in the spring, but we’re unsure who will get the starting nod and may not know until the first snap.
Who these quarterbacks will throw to is the big question. The Wolfpack lost six of their seven top receivers to either the NFL or transfer portal, running back Toa Taua’s 39 receptions as the returning leading receiver.
Wilson said that he wants to move Nevada from the air raid offense to a more run-oriented, and while they return a good portion of their backfield, they finished last year with the second-lowest rushing yards per game (73.8) and 2.9 yards per attempt.
Can Jerry Kill Improve The Worst Team In College Football?
Another team that will begin a new era is Jerry Kill at New Mexico State, as they’re just 8-30 since 2017. Kill has done this with other programs, including Northern and Southern Illinois and Minnesota, so he is the right man to fix a program at the bottom of the FPI Index.
Like Nevada, they’ll likely be running the ball, which could be their point of attack as the team had trouble in the passing game last season.
The Aggies will return a good chunk of their defensive unit with eight starters from last year, including six of the top seven defensive linemen. While the front wasn’t particularly great, they could play a factor against an inexperienced Nevada offensive line.
Nevada vs. New Mexico State Prediction
Nevada is being overvalued with all the questions at every spot on the roster, even against a team as bad as New Mexico State. The Aggies are almost in the same position, but some chemistry on defense at home might be their saving grace. The experience of Jerry Kill will not turn around this program in one season, but against a rookie coach that’s coming in with a depleted roster from last year could help keep the game close or even win.
Prediction 1: New Mexico State +9 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
As mentioned, both offenses will look to run the ball, and this game will move as quickly as molasses. There is zero confidence in either offense to explode, so we’ll look to take the under in what could be a sloppy game. I’m going against the consensus on this one and do not believe these two teams will put up 50.
Prediction 2: Under 50.5 total points | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
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