NCAA South Region Odds: Money Tilts Toward Houston

UPDATE 10 A.M. ET FRIDAY: Arizona opened as a 22.5-point favorite at BetMGM, but the line quickly dropped to 21.5 and remains there, with 53% of tickets and 74% of money on Wright State. The total opened at 155.5 and has gone to 156.5 with 52% of tickets and 68% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 11:40 A.M. ET THURSDAY: The top-seeded Wildcats hit DraftKings’ South Region odds board as a 22.5-point favorite late Wednesday night, but early money on Wright State dropped that number to -21.5. Early action is split, with 60% of the tickets on Arizona but 84% of the cash on Wright State. The total also has taken a plunge, from an opener of 158.5 to 156.5, as 60% of the bets and 74% of the dollars are on the Over.

UPDATE 11 PM ET WEDNESDAY: Arizona (31-3 SU, 20-13-1 ATS) is on the short list of national title contenders after winning the Pac-12 regular-season and tournament titles. The Wildcats pulled away to beat UCLA 84-76 in Saturday’s conference tourney final, covering as 2-point favorites. Arizona has won 15 of 16 (9-7 ATS), and six straight games (and eight of nine) have gone Over the total.

The Wildcats’ only three losses under first-year coach Tommy Lloyd were on the road, all essentially a month apart: at Tennessee (Dec. 22), at UCLA (Jan. 25), and at Colorado (Feb. 26).

Wright State (22-13 SU, 15-19 ATS, 18-15) knocked off Bryant 93-82 and easily cashed as a 2.5-point chalk in Wednesday’s First Four matchup in Dayton, Ohio. The Raiders enter Friday’s matchup on a six-game winning streak (4-2 ATS), but they’re just 2-6 ATS as an underdog this season.

Arizona enters the Tournament on a 6-0 Over run, while Wright State has topped the total in seven of its last nine overall and each of its last five at a neutral site.

UPDATE 11:35 A.M. FRIDAY: Seton Hall opened as a 1.5-point favorite at BetMGM, moved down to pick’em, and is now back to -1.5. Still, 67% of the bets and 79% of the cash is on ninth-seeded TCU. The total has dropped from an opener of 131.5 to 128.5, with 56% of tickets and 66% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Seton Hall remains a 1.5-point favorite at BetMGM, but at even-money (+100). The total is down to 129.5 from an opener of 131.5 (and included a stop at 130.5). The spread action leans toward TCU, which is taking 69% of all bets and 78% of the money. Bettors also are backing the Under on splits of 73% tickets/85% money.

UPDATE 6:45 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Seton Hall (21-10 SU, 14-16 ATS) grabbed an at-large bid after losing to Connecticut 62-52 in the Big East tournament semifinals as a 4.5-point underdog. Despite that setback, the Pirates enter the NCAA Tournament having won nine of 12, but they’ve split the cash in those dozen contests at 6-6 ATS. Seton Hall has lost six of its past seven NCAA Tournament games and has not reached the Sweet 16 since 2000.

TCU (20-12 SU, 18-11-3 ATS) got an at-large bid after losing to Kansas 75-62 in the Big 12 tournament semifinals as an 8-point underdog. That followed a 65-60 come-from-behind upset of Texas in the quarterfinals as a 5.5-point underdog. The Horned Frogs, who are on a 6-2 ATS run, are making only their fourth NCAA Tournament appearance since 1971. Their only win during that time was in 1987.

Seven of Seton Hall’s past eight games have stayed Under the total, and TCU is on a 5-0 Under run.

Seton Hall opened as a 1.5-point favorite at BetMGM, and the line is holding there, with slight juice on the underdog (-120). TCU is seeing the majority of action at 72% tickets/67% money. The total is down a point from 131.5 to 130.5, with virtually all the early wagers (98%) and cash (97%) on the Under.

UPDATE 11:35 A.M. ET FRIDAY: Illinois opened as a 7.5-point favorite at BetMGM. The line went to -8.5, then back to -7.5, and has now returned to -8.5. As of early this morning, 52% of the tickets were on Chattanooga but Illinois was catching 58% of of the money. The total has been completely steady at 135.5, with 69% of tickets and 86% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 10 A.M. ET THURSDAY: Illinois opened as a 7.5-point favorite and has stayed there, despite the fact 66% of tickets and 52% of money is on Chattanooga. The total also remains unchanged, sitting at the opener of 135.5 with 55% of tickets and 70% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 6 P.M. ET MONDAY: Illinois (22-9 SU, 13-18 ATS) shared the Big Ten regular-season title with Wisconsin, but the Illini fell to Indiana 65-63 as 5.5-point favorites in the conference tournament quarterfinals Saturday. Illinois is on a 4-11 ATS slide entering the Tournament (9-6 SU).

The Illini were one of the disappointments of last year’s NCAA Tournament, as they suffered a second-round loss as a No. 1 seed, falling 71-58 to Illinois-Chicago as a 7-point favorite. Illinois has not made the Sweet 16 since losing in the 2005 national title game.

Chattanooga (27-7 SU, 17-15 ATS) earned the Southern Conference’s automatic bid on a buzzer-beater in overtime against Furman, but the Mocs were also the regular-season champions. Chattanooga is making its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2016 and is seeking its first victory since reaching the Sweet 16 in 1997.

Illinois has stayed Under the total in three straight games, and the Under is 20-6-1 in Illinois’ last 27 NCAA Tournament outings. Also, nine of the Mocs’ last 12 neutral-site contests have stayed low.

Illinois opened and remains at -7.5 on BetMGM’s South Region odds board, with 75% of the bets and 66% of the dollars on the favorite. The total also is holding firm at the 135.5 opener, even though 67% of early bets and a whopping 96% of early cash is on the Over.

UPDATE 10 A.M. ET FRIDAY: Houston opened as a 7.5-point favorite at BetMGM, then went to 8.5 and has stayed there, despite the fact that 64% of tickets and 58% of money on UAB. The total has gone on a bit of ride, opening at 135.5, jumping to 136.5 and holding there for several days before shooting to 137.5 today. It’s pretty close to even action on the total, with 51% of tickets and 62% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 10 A.M. ET THURSDAY: Houston remains at -8.5, even though 68% of the wagers and 57% of the cash are on underdog UAB. The total, which had dipped to 135.5, is back at the opening number of 136.5. Ticket count is 57% on the Under, which also is catching a whopping 85% of the money.

UPDATE 6 P.M. ET MONDAY: Houston (29-5 SU, 22-12 ATS) can make a case as the most disrespected team in the NCAA Tournament field. The Cougars made the Final Four last season, and they rolled to the American Athletic regular-season and tournament titles this season.

Houston covered all three games in the AAC tournament, including pulling away to beat Memphis 71-53 as a 3.5-point favorite in Sunday’s championship matchup. The Cougars are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their past 10. KenPom makes Kelvin Sampson’s squad a No. 1 seed as the fourth-best team in the country, but Houston was weakened midseason by the loss of two guards to season-ending injuries: leading scorer Marcus Sasser (17.1 points per game) has been out since mid-February, and Tramon Mark (10.1 ppg) last played Dec. 11.

UAB (27-7 SU, 18-13-1 ATS, 21-10-1 Over) earned the automatic bid from Conference USA by covering as a 3-point favorite in Saturday’s 82-73 victory over Louisiana Tech in the tournament final. The Blazers have won seven straight but are only 3-4 ATS during that run. The Blazers are making their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2015.

The Under is 5-1-1 in Houston’s last seven games, while UAB has topped the total in five straight.

Houston, which opened as high as -9.5 in some spots, was installed an 8.5-point chalk at BetMGM. From there, the number slipped to -7.5, but is back at the opener on splits of 75% tickets/76% money on UAB. The total dipped a point from 136.5 to 135.5, with 67% of the bets and 61% of the cash on the Under.

UPDATE 10 A.M. ET THURSDAY: Loyola-Chicago, which opened as a 1.5-point favorite at BetMGM, is now a 1.5-point underdog at +105 juice. Despite that significant adjustment, the Ramblers are still seeing most of the action at 60% of the bets and 62% of the money. The total is down from the opener of 133.5 to 132.5, with 60% of tickets and 80% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 6 P.M. ET MONDAY: As was the case with archrival Michigan, Ohio State (19-11 SU, 15-15 ATS) earned an at-large bid despite not making the Big Ten tournament quarterfinals. The Buckeyes, who land in the Tournament in a 1-4 run SU and ATS slump, have not reached the Sweet 16 since 2013. They’re also 1-10 ATS in their last 11 March Madness contests.

Loyola-Chicago (25-7 SU, 12-15-4 ATS) made sure to stay off the NCAA Tournament bubble by winning the Missouri Valley tournament. The Ramblers closed the regular season on a 3-9-1 ATS nosedive but covered all three games in the league tourney, including edging Drake 64-58 as 5.5-point favorites in the final.

The Ramblers have become NCAA Tournament darlings in the past few years. After a Cinderella run to the Final Four in 2018, Loyola knocked off No. 1 seed Illinois last season before losing in the Sweet 16 to Oregon State.

Five of Ohio State’s past seven games — including three in a row — have gone Over the total, but Loyola is on a 5-1 Under tear.

Loyola opened and remains at -1.5 at BetMGM, but with -125 juice on the Buckeyes. While 55% of the tickets are on the Ramblers, 59% of the cash is on Ohio State. The total, which came out as high as 134.5 at some shops, is at the opening number of 132.5 at BetMGM. Current betting splits weren’t available on the total.

UPDATE 10 A.M. ET THURSDAY: Villanova on Monday took a quick tumble on BetMGM’s South Region odds board from -17.5 to -16.5 to -15.5, and the spread is holding firm at the latter number. The Blue Hens are catching 62% of tickets and 72% of money. The total remains at the opener of 133.5, although a majority of the action — 71% of tickets/85% money — is on the Over.

UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET MONDAY: Villanova (26-7 SU, 16-16-1 ATS) covered only one of three games in the Big East tournament, but still cut down the nets after finishing off Creighton 54-46 in Sunday’s title tilt but missing as a 7-point chalk. The Wildcats, who finished second to Providence in the Big East regular season standings, have won 10 of 11 but are only 4-6-1 ATS during that stretch.

Villanova, which won the national title in 2016 and 2018, lost to eventual champion Baylor in the Sweet 16 last season.

Delaware (22-12 SU, 15-18 ATS) finished tied for fourth in the regular season in the Colonial Athletic Association but won the league tournament title to claim its first NCAA Tournament berth since 2014. The Blue Hens, who capped the regular season 0-3 ATS, covered all three games in the CAA tournament. That includes a 59-55 victory over UNC-Wilmington as a 2.5-point favorite in the championship game.

Delaware has never won an NCAA Tournament game in five tries.

These teams met eight times from 2009-2019, with Villanova winning every game while going 5-3 ATS.

All three of the Wildcats’ Big East tournament games stayed Under after five of their last six regular-season games went Over. Delaware enters the Big Dance on a 4-0 Under run.

Delaware money has shown up in a big way, as the line has shifted from Villanova -17.5 to -15.5 on BetMGM’s South Region odds board. As suggested by that line move, 89% of wagers and 98% of early cash is on the Blue Hens. The total hasn’t budged from the opener of 133.5. Current betting splits on the total weren’t available.

UPDATE 4:15 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: This game has produced some of largest moves for spread and total so far in the NCAA Tournament. Michigan opened as a 2.5-point favorite at PointsBet, and the line is down to -1. The line pinged several times between -2.5 and -2 before hitting -1, going back up to -1.5, then back to -1 on Wednesday. Current bet splits are unavailable. The total plunged from 140 to 136.5 on Wednesday, going from 140 to 138.5 to 136.5 back to 137.5 then back to 136.5. PointsBet reported 52% of bets and 77% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 6 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Colorado State (25-5 SU, 14-15 ATS) is the highest-seeded of four Mountain West teams in the NCAA Tournament field, despite losing to conference tournament runner-up San Diego State in Friday’s semifinals. The Rams have won nine of 11 but are only 5-6 ATS during this stretch. Colorado State is making its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2013.

Michigan (17-14 SU, 13-18 ATS, 19-12 Over) defied some projections by making the NCAA Tournament field. The Wolverines even managed to avoid the First Four play-in round, despite not even making the Big Ten tournament quarterfinals after losing 74-69 to Indiana as a 3-point chalk Wednesday.

Michigan has remarkably alternated ATS wins and losses in its last 13 games, and hasn’t covered consecutive games since January (a span of 16 contests). The Wolverines were a No. 1 seed in last year’s Big Dance but lost to UCLA in the Elite Eight.

While Colorado State has seen the Under cash in six of its past seven games, Michigan has gone Over the total in six of its last eight.

Michigan hit BetMGM’s South Region odds board as a 1.5-point favorite is now up to -2.5, with 53% of early tickets and 60% of the early cash on the Wolverines. The total hasn’t budged from the opener of 139.5, on splits of 56% tickets/90% money on the Over.

UPDATE 4:15 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Tennessee opened as a 16.5-point favorite at PointsBet and is up to -17.5 (-115). The line jumped from -16.5 to -18.5 on Wednesday, then ticked down to -18.5 (-105) before going to the current -17.5 (-115), with 63% of bets and 59% of money on Tennessee. The total opened at 132.5 and is back there again after going to 132 and 132.5 (Under -115). PointsBet reports 57% of tickets and 68% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 6 P.M. ET MONDAY: Like Houston, Tennessee (26-7 SU, 20-13 ATS) also makes a strong case for most disrespected team in the field. The Volunteers tied for second in the SEC during the regular season, then breezed to the conference tournament title with three straight comfortable wins. Yet Rick Barnes’ squad ended up with only a No. 3 seed.

Tennessee covered all three games in the SEC tournament, including a 69-62 upset of Kentucky (an NCAA No. 2 seed) in Saturday’s semifinals as a 3-point underdog. The Volunteers, who have won 15 of 17 (11-6 ATS), will try to atone for last year’s surprising early Tournament exit, as they lost in the first round as a No. 5 seed to No. 12 Oregon State. In fact, Tennessee has failed to cash in five straight Big Dance contests.

Longwood (26-6 SU, 19-9 ATS) backed up its Big South regular-season title with a conference tournament crown to earn the program’s first NCAA Tournament berth. The Lancers covered all three games in the Big South tournament, including a 79-58 upset of Winthrop in the final as a 2.5-point underdog. Longwood has lost just once in calendar year 2022, going 19-1 SU and 13-6 ATS in lined action.

The Over is 5-2 in Longwood’s last seven, but the Under has cashed in six of Tennessee’s last nine.

Tennessee is currently a 16.5-point favorite on the South Region odds menu at BetMGM. That’s unchanged from the opening spread, even though 79% of early tickets and 96% of early money is on the Vols. The total remains at the opening number of 132.5, with 59% of tickets/69% of dough on the Under.