Each week, Props.com selects five intriguing player and/or team NBA props from a busy night of action. Then, we do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
Here are our five favorite NBA props from Thursday’s slate of seven games.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 2:30 p.m. ET on Feb. 10.
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Memphis Grizzlies: PF Jaren Jackson Jr.
The Prop: 24.5 points/rebounds/assists (at Detroit)
The Odds: Over -130/Under -105
Let’s begin with a “PRA” prop that has little to do with the ‘A’ portion — as in assists.
Jackson’s averaging 16.8 points and 6.0 rebounds this season … but only 1.1 dimes per game. As such, his points/rebounds/assists prop (24.5) reads much lower than teammate Ja Morant’s PRA tally against the Pistons (40.5 credits).
Here’s the breakdown:
Jackson has averaged 29.1 PRAs in his last seven games. For this span, JJ surpassed Wednesday’s total six different times (38, 27, 37, 26, 19, 26, and 31 credits).
The Michigan State product has scored 20-plus points nine times since Jan. 4 (out of 18 games). Jackson has also posted five double-doubles since New Year’s Eve (zero prior to that date).
The Grizzlies, who last played Tuesday at home (vs. Clippers), are averaging 123 points in their last seven outings (six victories).
And let’s not forget: The bottom-feeding Pistons rank 25th in scoring defense (allowing 111.9 ppg), 25th in rebounds allowed to the opposition (46.8 per game), and 27th in field-goal defense (47.8%).
For Under bettors, here’s something to ponder: Jackson has averaged only 19.5 PRAs in his last two meetings with Detroit.
The culprit on both occasions: Zero assists.
Editor’s Note: New to NBA props? Check out our complete NBA Props Betting Guide.
New Orleans Pelicans: C Jonas Valanciunas
The Prop: 11.5 rebounds (vs. Miami)
The Odds: Over -130/Under -105
DraftKings has great faith in Valanciunas clearing tonight’s Over total, even though that figure aligns with the seasonal rebounding averages (11.6 per game).
Is this a wise strategy?
After all, Valanciunas has collected only 42 rebounds in his last five games (9, 13, 7, 5, and 8 boards).
Plus, against Miami (the same team he’ll play tonight) on Nov. 17, Valanciunas merely pulled down eight rebounds.
And the Heat lead all comers in fewest rebounds allowed to the opposition (41.5 per game).
For the Over crowd, here’s hoping Valanciunas can recapture the beast mode of last month, when the Pelicans center averaged 12.4 rebounds over nine games. The breakdown then: 16, 10, 17, 12, 16, 5, 14, 10, and 12 boards.
Valanciunas will be operating on sufficient rest tonight. He was idle Wednesday, and logged less than 30 minutes the previous two games.
Dallas Mavericks: PG Luka Doncic
The Prop: 28.5 points (vs. L.A. Clippers)
The Odds: Over -140/Under -120
Doncic has averaged 32.5 points in his last eight home games, while shooting 55.1 percent from the field.
He’s also averaging 34.3 points against the Clippers since March 2021 — a 10-game sample size that includes postseason results.
And from his last six games overall (155 combined points), Doncic has accounted for 22.7 percent of the Mavericks’ scoring output; and that includes an 18-point clunker on Feb. 6 (vs. Atlanta).
Also, the Mavericks were idle Wednesday, and Doncic hasn’t played more than 32 minutes in his last two outings.
On the down side, relative to the Under: The feisty Clippers rank fifth in 3-point defense (33.6%), eighth in field-goal defense (44.6%), and 13th in scoring defense (allowing 107.9 ppg).
Kristaps Porzingis has reportedly been traded to the Wizards, so there’s a chance Doncic will have to shoulder more of the scoring load.
Phoenix Suns: PG Chris Paul
The Prop: 11.5 assists (vs. Milwaukee)
The Odds: Over +100/Under -135
Forget about the above odds.
There should be plenty of optimism for Over bettors. Such as:
Paul has averaged 12.3 assists in his last 12 games; and during that stretch, the four-time NBA assist champion eclipsed tonight’s 11.5 total eight times.
The Wake Forest legend has notched 13-plus assists in five straight home outings (14, 19, 14, 13, and 16 dimes).
Milwaukee, the defending world champions, ranks 20th in opposing assists allowed (24.9 per game) and 15th in scoring defense (yielding 108.8 ppg).
And let’s not underrate the X factor of the Suns being highly motivated for revenge against the Bucks, who erased an 0-2 hole in last year’s NBA Finals, before taking home the Larry O’Brien Trophy in six games.
Speaking of last year’s Finals, tonight’s Under crowd should take note: Paul didn’t tally more than 11 assists in any of the six matchups with Milwaukee.
Golden State Warriors: SG Klay Thompson
The Prop: 2.5 made 3-pointers (vs. N.Y. Knicks)
The Odds: Over -150/Under +115
Twelve games into his return from a two-year injury hiatus, and Thompson’s seasonal 3-point proficiency (37.8%) lags behind his career rate (41.8%).
Should that be a red flag for tonight’s prop? We’re not scared … at least when games are being played at GSW’s Chase Center.
At home this season, Thompson has buried 23 of 54 triples (42.6%), and that includes an 0 for 7 debacle against the Pacers on Jan. 20.
And charting his last four home outings, Thompson drained 3, 5, 2, and 7 treys.
In terms of the opposition, the Knicks rank 14th in 3-point defense (34.6%) and 20th in 3-pointers made (13.0 per game).
What’s more, Thompson has logged at least 25-plus minutes in five of his last six games.
On the surface, it doesn’t sound like much, but this kind of rhythm might quickly lead to 30 minutes per game — especially when Thompson’s coming off a load-management break from Wednesday (last game: Monday).
