The Unabated NBA team delivers player prop projections daily, made by some of the sharpest players in the space – Justin Phan, Stephen Byron Keech and John Raudebaugh.
Betting NBA props is something of a different animal compared to betting props in other sports.
Because the prop markets are so reactive to news, and because player performance is very much tied to which teammates will be on the floor, it requires bettors to be very active and aware of context around what teams are doing when it comes to resting players, and other factors.
For a deeper look at NBA betting strategy with the Unabated NBA team, check out some of their thoughts on the process.
Here, we’re taking a look at a few of those projections and how they stack up against available lines at PrizePicks, which is widely available to bettors in the majority of jurisdictions.
We’re using the Unabated DFS Entry Builder to find an edge.
How to read this entry
- PowerPlay/FlexPlay: Whether or not this entry uses insurance – paying a reduced rate for entries that have one or more legs that miss.
- Projection: The average points, rebounds or assists the team is projecting for this player, based on how many minutes they’re projected to play.
- Line: The current line at the DFS pick’em site.
- Play: Whether the recommended play is higher or lower than the current line.
- Edge: How much of an advantage you can expect to have over the pick’em sites, based on running 10,000 simulations of a player’s mean projections and generating a likely distribution of outcomes against the current line.
- Probability: How often we expect an outcome like higher points or lower assists, based on the projection simulated against the line. You can translate this to a projected price using an odds converter.
Best practices for DFS pick’em
Should you play a four-team entry over a five- or six-team? It depends. DFS pick’em products are always evolving. The best way to determine the optimal play is to use breakeven percentage as a way to guide your decisions.
Here’s a breakdown of how breakeven impacts your plays at Underdog and PrizePicks.
For standard plays at regular payouts, you’ll generally have the biggest edge when playing five- and six-man entries.
But as these products evolve, correlation is increasingly a factor in payouts. For example, a quarterback’s passing yards and star wide receiver’s yards would be correlated. That correlation may decrease your payout.
Always check the math to determine the breakeven percentage and payout of a play before you make any betting decisions.
Projection notes
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- Oklahoma City: Alex Caruso and Jaylin Williams are both questionable, while Aaron Wiggins, Ousmane Dieng, Alex Ducas and Ajay Mitchell are all out. Caruso’s absence would help solidify roles for Isaiah Joe and Cason Wallace, while Jaylin’s absence would be most impactful for Kenrich Williams and Dillon Jones.
- Sacramento: Devin Carter and Jake LaRavia both remain out. Nothing new here, and it seems like Keon Ellis should continue to hold onto that starting SG spot with Malik Monk playing off the bench. We saw them play very similar allotments on Monday, with Keon playing 27 minutes while Monk finished with about 28.5.
- Miami: Andrew Wiggins, Duncan Robinson, Kevin Love, Nikola Jovic and Dru Smith all remain out. Davion Mitchell should return here, which could push Terry Rozier out of the rotation entirely. Terry did basically slide right into Mitchell’s typical bench role, playing 32 bench minutes, which was a huge change for Terry. It does seem like Mitchell slots back into the vast majority of that. Jaime Jaquez also played his biggest role in awhile, but with Pelle Larsson likely to continue starting, Jaquez role is very volatile. Haywood Highsmith should continue to hold onto a very secure bench role, and it seems like Kyle Anderson is involved for the time being.
Results
Here’s a look at how Unabated NBA projections have performed this year. An Unabated NBA member using $100 units would be up $63,947 betting straight props against median sportsbook lines 30 minutes prior to tip-off on all points, rebounds or assists player prop projections that showed a 5% or more edge in the Unabated player prop simulator.
It’s an 8.2% return on investment across 6,342 bets.
Those include the dynamic conditional projections at Unabated NBA – which offer different scenarios for a team’s performance based on whether or not questionable players sit or start.
For example, on a night where Lebron James may be questionable to play for the Lakers at 4 p.m., the team will create two sets of projections: one where James plays, and one where he’s out, to show how his presence or absence will affect projections for the rest of the team.
These results include the appropriate sit/start scenarios if a player’s status is decided at least 30 minutes before the game starts. If James is confirmed to play by 9:30 p.m. for a 10 p.m. ET tip-off, results are for the “James plays” scenario. If he’s ruled out, the opposite scenario is recorded. If no decision is made before the 30-minute mark, Lakers projections wouldn’t be included in the results.
Dig into all the projections
Get more projection notes and up-to-the-minute breaking news alerts in the Unabated Discord, with dedicated channels just for Unabated NBA members.
Unabated NBA membership includes daily fantasy points projections for DraftKings and FanDuel. For those strictly interested in traditional DFS points, Unabated NBA DFS lets you access just those numbers.
