Each week, Props.com selects five intriguing player and/or team NBA betting props from a busy night of action. Then, we do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
Here are our five favorite NBA props from Monday’s slate of eight games.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 3 p.m. ET on Jan. 31.
Memphis Grizzlies: SF Desmond Bane
The Prop: 2.5 made three-pointers (at Philadelphia)
The Odds: Over +110/Under -145
Bane has been a top performer this season for the Grizzlies (35-17; current 3-seed in the West). The second-year forward from TCU is averaging 17.8 points and 4.3 rebounds while shooting 41.6 percent from beyond the arc.
That shooting rate from distance is outstanding. But it was even better three weeks ago because, in his last six games, Bane has made just 11 of 36 three-point shots (32.4%). And he made more than two triples just once during this stretch.
Prior to that, though, Bane had topped this prop number in five consecutive games and 10 of 11. Also, from Nov. 20 to Jan. 9, Bane buried three or more triples in 14 consecutive road outings. His proficiency rate from beyond the arc during that streak: 55 percent.
Bane will have his work cut out for him Monday, as the 76ers rank seventh in the fewest 3-pointers allowed (11.5 per game) and 10th in opponents’ 3-point proficiency (34.3%). In his only previous meeting against Philly this season, Bane went 1-for-3 from downtown. But he played less than 21 minutes, his second-shortest outing of the season.
Editor’s Note: New to NBA player props? Check out our complete NBA Prop Betting Guide to get up to speed!
Indiana Pacers: PF Domantas Sabonis
The Prop: 39.5 points/rebounds/assists (vs. L.A. Clippers)
The Odds: Over -115/Under -120
January has been an epic month for Sabonis, who’s averaging 22.5 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 7.4 assists in 11 games. That includes four triple-doubles in which the sixth-year veteran crushed this points/rebounds/assists number each time.
Since returning from a four-game injury absence, Sabonis has put up 45 points, 33 rebounds, and 18 assists in two games at Dallas and Oklahoma City. And prior to being sidelined, he went for 20/12/10 at the Lakers, so he’s gone Over this number in three consecutive contests.
Furthermore, Sabonis has averaged exactly 42 points/rebounds/assists in his last six home games, tallying 51, 54, 44, and 40 in four of those outings. And in six matchups against Western Conference foes, Sabonis has combined for 44, 52, 42, 37, 34 and 51 points/rebounds/assists.
One of the near-misses, as it relates to Monday’s prop number, occurred against the Clippers on Jan. 17 in Los Angeles. That night, Sabonis rolled for 19 points, 11 rebounds, and 7 assists, but he logged only 34:25 of court time — his third-shortest stint since Dec. 26.
With Sabonis having gone Over 39.5 points/rebounds/assists in three straight games, you might be wondering how often he’s done it four times in a row this season. The answer? Never.
Boston Celtics: SF Jayson Tatum
The Prop: 26.5 points (vs. Miami)
The Odds: Over -115/Under -110
We’re just eight days removed from Tatum’s 51-point explosion against the Wizards. Yet, Monday’s prop number leans slightly toward the Under.
Here’s why:
The Heat boast the NBA’s No. 4 scoring defense (allowing 104.5 ppg), an esteemed ranking that includes Saturday’s 124-120 triple-overtime defeat to Toronto. Tatum felt the wrath of Miami’s defense back on Nov. 4, when he finished with just 10 points on 3 of 13 shooting in a game Boston won convincingly because the Heat managed just 78 points.
That’s the only meeting between the Heat and Celtics this season. But looking back at Tatum’s last six games against Miami, he’s gotten Over this scoring prop three times — putting up exactly 27 points in two of those outings.
Since his 51-point outburst at Washington, Tatum has had two big games (36 and 38 points) and one so-so effort (20 points). And after a stretch in which he was held under 27 points in seven straight home games, Tatum has scored 27-plus in three of four in Boston.
Boston didn’t play on Sunday, meaning Tatum should be able to handle his typical workload of 35-plus minutes as he looks to beat this prop number for the fifth time in his last six games overall.
Toronto Raptors: SF Pascal Siakam
The Prop: 8.5 rebounds (at Atlanta)
The Odds: Over -135/Under -110
Siakam’s averaging 8.4 rebounds per outing this season, but he’s cleaned the glass nine or more times just twice in his last eight games overall. That includes just once in six road contests.
In fact, Siakam has been much more dominant on the boards at home (9.1 per game) than on the road (7.6). Overall, the 27-year-old has secured nine-plus rebounds in just 11 of 34 games this season. And he’s done it only three times in 16 road games.
Therein lies the curiosity with the juice on this prop being shaded to the Over: Siakam might possess the capacity for 9-15 rebounds, but it’s hardly a regular event. Plus, the Hawks rank 10th overall in rebounds allowed (43.6 per game). And in 14 career games (10 starts) against Atlanta, Siakam is averaging only 5.6 boards.
Finally, Siakam logged a season-high 56-plus minutes in the Raptors’ triple-overtime victory Saturday. So, it’ll be interesting to see if Monday’s plan calls for the big man to play his customary 40 minutes, coming off just one day of rest.
Golden State Warriors: PG Stephen Curry
The Prop: 7.5 assists (at Houston)
The Odds: Over +110/Under -145
The Warriors on Saturday wrapped a seven-game homestand, with Curry averaging 7.9 assists during this stretch. However, while he dished out at least six dimes in all seven contests, he notched eight or more on just four occasions.
During his last 10 road outings, Curry merely averaged 5.4 dimes, while eclipsing Monday’s total only twice (9 at Utah, 10 at Memphis). The other tallies: 4, 2, 5, 6, 4, 3, 6, and 5 assists.
The Rockets rank 23rd in opposition assists this season (allowing 25.2 per game), so it should come as no surprise to learn Curry’s biggest assist game this season occurred Jan. 21 against Houston (12 dimes in a two-point home win). However, back on Nov. 7 in Texas, the former MVP had just two helpers. In fact, he’s recorded more than seven assists in just two of is last six meetings with the Rockets.
Now for the good news, relative to the Over: Curry has recorded eight or more assists in consecutive games six times this season. And that stat has newfound relevance since Curry has cracked 30 points just once in his last 15 games (meaning he’s been playing more of a distributor role of late).
