Each week, Props.com selects five intriguing player and/or team NBA props from a busy night of action. Then, we do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
Here are our five favorite NBA betting props from Monday’s slate of 10 games.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 2 p.m. ET on Jan. 3.
Washington Wizards: SG Bradley Beal
The Prop: 27.5 points (vs. Charlotte)
The Odds: Over -120/Under -105
The juice on this prop suggests a slight lean to the Over — probably because Beal has poured in 28-plus points in three of his last five games (and came close in the other two, tallying 26 and 27). But the Under might be the better play based on the following stats:
— Beal has averaged only 21.3 points in his last seven home games, including an 18-point effort on Nov. 22 against the Hornets. And despite his recent scoring uptick, the Wizards’ primary offensive threat is averaging just 23.6 points per game for the season (23.7 ppg at home).
— In his last six meetings against Charlotte dating to December 2019, Beal is averaging 24.6 points. He’s topped this prop just twice during this stretch.
— Beal has posted two or fewer made three-pointers in 18 consecutive outings. This partially explains why Beal is shooting just 28.0 percent from long range this season (well below his career average of 37.2 percent).
The Wizards, who are in the middle of a four-game home stand, have been idle since Saturday’s game against the Bulls.
Brooklyn Nets: PG/SG James Harden
The Prop: 2.5 made three-pointers (vs. Memphis)
The Odds: Over -110/Under -115
Harden has connected on just 30.3 percent of his three-point tries in the last seven games overall — an underwhelming rate that suggests yet another lean to the Under. Except for this news: During this span, Harden buried three-plus triples five times. On the two occasions in which he failed to clear this prop number, the former NBA MVP attempted only five treys both times.
And while Harden is shooting a woeful 24.6 percent from long distance in his last eight home contests, the southpaw still has drained three or more three-pointers four times. (The breakdown: 2, 3, 3, 3, 0, 1, 1, and 3.)
Bottom line: Harden may be a notoriously erratic volume shooter, but he’s still a good bet to connect from distance against middling competition — and the Grizzlies rank 22nd in three-pointers allowed (13.0 per game).
The Nets were idle Sunday, allowing Harden to sufficiently rest after logging 40 home minutes versus the Clippers on Saturday.
Editor’s Note: New to NBA props? Check out our complete NBA Props Betting Guide.
Milwaukee Bucks: PG Jrue Holiday
The Prop: 30.5 points/rebounds/assists (vs. Detroit)
The Odds: Over -115/Under -115
This seems like inflated number when you realize Holiday is averaging just 29.2 points/rebounds/assists per game this season (18.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 6.6 assists). It looks much less inflated, however, when you factor in the opponent.
Not only do the Pistons carry an NBA-worst 6-28 record, but they’re playing with a skeleton crew of typical bench performers and G-League callups, due to a rash of injuries, illnesses, and COVID-related absences.
Also, the aptly named Holiday has been a certifiable force over the last few weeks, averaging 36.9 points/rebounds/assists in his last eight games. In those eight contests, he surpassed this prop number seven times. The breakdown: 44, 50, 38, 38, 25, 32, 37 and 31.
What’s more, Holiday is averaging 30.9 points/rebounds/assists in his last seven matchups against Detroit.
The red-hot Bucks have been scoring in bunches during their six-game winning streak putting up 124 ppg. Now they face a Pistons squad that ranks in the bottom 10 in the NBA in points, rebounds, and assists allowed. Look for Holiday to get Over this number for the fourth consecutive game and eighth time in his last nine outings.
New Orleans Pelicans: SF Josh Hart
The Prop: 7.5 rebounds (vs. Utah)
The Odds: Over -110/Under -120
Don’t be fooled by Hart’s modest average of 7.3 boards per game. The 6-foot-5 swingman has been dynamic on the glass of late, averaging 9.6 rebounds over his last 10 games.
During this stretch, Hart eclipsed this prop number seven times, snagging 11, 10, 15, 10, 13, 8 and 12 rebounds in those specific contests. And while he’s been better on the glass on the road (7.5 rebounds per game) than at home (7.0), Hart has pulled down at least eight boards in four of his last seven games in the Big Easy (averaging 9.0 over this span).
On the flip side, the Jazz have done a good job this season protecting the glass, as they rank second in fewest rebounds allowed (41.7 per game). They’ve also done a good job recently containing Hart — he’s been limited to seven or fewer rebounds in seven of his last eight meetings against Utah.
Hart has been resting since logging 35-plus minutes at Milwaukee on Saturday. However, Monday marks a four-day stretch in which the Pelicans host the Jazz, Suns, and Warriors.
Atlanta Hawks: PG Trae Young
The Prop: 9.5 assists (at Portland)
The Odds: Over -125/Under -105
How’s this for bedrock consistency:
— In 14 games from Nov. 24 to Dec. 31, Young averaged 9.9 assists and collected double-digit dimes 10 times. The per-game breakdown: 11, 10, 7, 10, 10, 15, 11, 10, 9, 4, 10, 9, 11 and 11.
— Young also has produced double-digit assists in 10 of his last 14 home games. (The tallies: 13, 10, 10, 13, 9, 6, 9, 11, 10, 10, 11, 4, 11, and 11 dimes.)
— Young has dished out at least 10 assists in each of his last four games against the Trail Blazers (11, 11, 15, and 10).
— Also, in the Hawks’ last three games (two against the Bulls, one versus the Cavaliers), Young collected 31 assists, or 43.6 percent of Atlanta’s entire total.
Two additional reasons to consider the Over here: Young is operating on three days’ rest (Atlanta last played Friday in Cleveland), and the Blazers are allowing 25.8 assists per game (third-most in the league).
