The National League MVP odds board includes multiple Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves players — and, in one case, someone with recent ties to both teams. But the runaway preseason favorite happens to be last year’s NL MVP runner-up — and he happens to play for a team that’s projected to be one of the league’s worst.
Not far behind the favorite, and grouped with many of those Dodgers and Braves, is the reigning MVP who will be gunning for his third trophy.
Which of the top candidates in the National League MVP odds market has the best shot at bringing home the hardware? Props.com continues its comprehensive 2022 Major League Baseball betting preview with a breakdown of the NL MVP race.
National League MVP Odds
| Player | Team | Odds |
| Juan Soto | Washington Nationals | +280 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | Atlanta Braves | +700 |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | +900 |
| Mookie Betts | Los Angeles Dodgers | +900 |
| Freddie Freeman | Los Angeles Dodgers | +1,200 |
| Trea Turner | Los Angeles Dodgers | +1,300 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | +1,400 |
| Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | +2,000 |
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 9 p.m. EST on March 21.
The Favorite
Washington Nationals OF Juan Soto (+280)
At just 23 years old, Soto (29 HR, 95 RBI, 111 runs, .313 batting, .465 OBP, .999 OPS last season) is already regarded as one of the game’s best all-around players. He’s also trending toward becoming baseball’s first $500 million man, upon hitting unrestricted free agency in November 2024. In the meantime, Soto represents the face of a rebuilding Nationals club that’s projected for fourth or fifth place in the stacked NL East.
Which, of course, leads to the age-old question: Should the star from a bad team be worthy of MVP honors? It’s a question many asked last year when Shohei Ohtani put together a historic season for a sub-.500 Angels team. (Ohtani ultimately was a unanimous AL MVP selection and is favored to repeat heading into this season.)
Hall of Famer Andre Dawson (49 HR, 137 RBI) won the 1987 NL MVP for the last-place Cubs (76-85). Since then, the only National Leaguer to win MVP while playing for a losing team was former Marlins star Giancarlo Stanton, who in 2017 led the league in homers (59), RBI (132), OPS+ (169), and slugging (.631).
If Soto can come anywhere near replicating Stanton’s numbers — and he certainly has the talent to do so — he’ll have a great shot at winning his first MVP, regardless of his team’s record. Which is why he enters the 2022 season as the overwhelming favorite after finishing second to Bryce Harper last season.
The Contenders
Atlanta Braves OF Ronald Acuña Jr. (+700)
At age 21 in 2019, Acuña finished three stolen bases shy of becoming just the fifth player in MLB history to post a 40-homer/40-steals season. Since then, the über-talented budding superstar has been plagued by two unfortunate events: the COVID-truncated 2020 campaign and an ACL tear he suffered shortly before last year’s All-Star break.
Acuña continues to rehab his repaired knee and isn’t expected to return to the outfield until mid-May (although he might serve as the Braves’ DH as soon as late April.) Because of the injury, Acuña’s chances of pulling off a 40/40 season in 2022 are long. Same goes for the now-24-year-old collecting 100 RBI and/or matching his 2019 runs total (127).
Bottom line: Although his preseason odds suggests he’s a legit contender, Acuña probably would need a monster second half of the season to be in the discussion, as he’s likely headed for a slow start.
Philadelphia Phillies OF Bryce Harper (+900)
If anyone understands the mental grind associated with following an MVP season, it’s Harper. After winning the 2015 trophy, the then-Nationals outfielder batted just .243 in 2016 while accounting for only 24 homers and 86 RBI.
Last year, Harper had the kind of season that led Philadelphia to hand the former No. 1 pick a 13-year, $330 million contract in 2019. He had 35 homers, 84 RBI, 101 runs and 13 steals, and led all NL hitters in doubles (42), slugging (.615), OPS+ (179), and OPS (1.044). Along the way, he put an injury-riddled lineup on his back and nearly carried it to the playoffs.
Now, though, Harper has a serious supporting cast. With Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins, Didi Gregorius, Alec Bohm, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Castellanos, the Phillies boast one of the NL’s most potent lineups. Assuming he and his teammates avoid the injury bug in 2022, the 29-year-old Harper could be a shoo-in for 100 RBI and 100 runs — all while vying to become the NL’s first repeat MVP since Albert Pujols in 2009.
L.A. Dodgers OF Mookie Betts. (+900)
Speaking of injuries, Betts’ first full season in Los Angeles was plagued by a nagging right hip ailment. When he wasn’t on the injured list, Betts was putting up middling numbers (for him, anyway), finishing with 23 homers, 58 RBI, a .264 batting average, and a .487 slugging average.
Oddsmakers clearly believe the 2018 AL MVP will return to form in 2022, as he’s tied with Harper as the third choice on the National League MVP odds board. Undoubtedly, Betts will have plenty of opportunities to put up big numbers in a stacked Dodgers lineup that features Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman, Justin Turner, Max Muncy, Will Smith, and former NL MVP Cody Bellinger. However, some of those teammates very easily could steal MVP votes from Betts if they, too, meet or exceed expectations.
One thing working in Betts’ favor: Among his teammates, he’s an ultra-elite defensive player who won five straight Gold Gloves from 2016-20.
The Long Shots
L.A. Dodgers 1B Freddie Freeman (+1,200)
The Dodgers’ newest shiny toy also is a perennial MVP contender. Freeman boasts five top-10 MVP finishes since 2016, which includes taking home the award in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. However, the former heart and soul of the Braves has some history working against him: It’s been 29 years since a player captured NL MVP honors in his inaugural season with a new club (that player was Barry Bonds in 1993 with the Giants).
Freeman’s career numbers at Dodger Stadium — seven HR, 19 RBI, 17 runs, .296 batting, .353 OBP, .865 OPS over 33 games — are sublime. But they might fall shy of MVP-caliber when extrapolated over 81 home games. Of course, just like Betts, Freeman should have plenty of opportunities in the middle of the Dodgers’ loaded lineup to amass 40 homers, 120 RBI, and perhaps top last year’s personal best of 120 runs. (Playing a bunch of games — particularly on the road — against Colorado and Arizona won’t hurt, either.)
L.A. Dodgers SS Trea Turner (+1,300)
Splitting last season between Washington and Los Angeles, Turner posted career highs in homers (28), RBI (77), runs (107), batting average (.328), OBP (.375), and hits (195), to go with 35 steals. Does he fit the profile of a typical MVP candidate? The last non-pitcher to win NL MVP and not hit 35 homers (excluding the 2020 campaign) was Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen.
In 2013, McCutchen churned out 21 homers, 84 RBI, 97 runs, 27 steals, a .317 batting average, and a .404 OBP. McCutchen also had the luxury of carrying an underdog team to 94 wins and a wild-card berth. With a roster that boasts four former MVPs — Clayton Kershaw, Betts, Bellinger, and now Freeman — there’s nothing “underdog” about the 2022 Dodgers. So as multitalented and important as Turner is, he’ll probably have to do something otherworldly to win the honor.
San Diego Padres SS/OF Fernando Tatis Jr. (+1,400)
Tatis finished behind Harper and Soto in last year’s NL MVP race. So him being high up on the 2022 National League MVP odds board makes sense … except for the fact he’s going to miss at least half the season after breaking his wrist in the offseason (perhaps from a motorcycle accident).
Yes, the Padres’ flamboyant 23-year-old shortstop is right there with Soto, Acuña, the Rays’ Wander Franco and others on the short list of best young talents in the game. But there’s little chance he’ll get enough at-bats to pile up 30 homers, 100 RBI, 95 runs, and 20-plus steals (the typical benchmarks of an MVP contender).
Still want to take a shot with Tatis? Consider waiting until just before he returns to action, when his National League MVP odds will be much higher than they are now.
Atlanta Braves 1B Matt Olson (+2,000)
As with Tatis, it’s hard to envision Olson winning the 2022 NL MVP — but for a different reason. First, the veteran first baseman who was recently acquired from Oakland will need to adjust to National League pitching. Secondly, the Georgia native might feel internal pressure to replicate the impact of the departed Freeman. Is that fair? No. But Freeman was the redoubtable face of the Braves, the reigning world champions. Meanwhile, Olson was a highly productive player in a quiet (read: pressure-free) Oakland market.
On the plus side, Olson’s career-best numbers in 2021 (39 HR, 111 RBI, 101 runs, .271 batting, .371 OBP) weren’t much of a deviation from his previous four seasons. And in moving from Oakland to Atlanta, Olson — who turns 28 on March 29 — graduates to a much more hitter-friendly stadium (Truist Park yielded 1.02 homers per game last season).
