The Chiefs and Raiders have a high game total of 51.5 points. Thus, there should be fireworks. As a result, our forthcoming favorite bets lean into offensive production. So, which Monday Night Football player props should you be the most excited to wager on? Let’s dive in.
Chiefs vs. Raiders Player Props
Below are my top three Monday Night Football prop bets for Week 5.
Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+140)
Patrick Mahomes has played at a high level to open the year. He’s averaging 276.5 passing yards per game and is tied for the most passing touchdowns with 11. Furthermore, he’s leading a pass-happy offense.
In neutral game scripts this season, Mahomes has attempted 86 passes, and the skill-position players have attempted only 46 rushes. Conversely, the Raiders’ opponents have attempted 67 passes compared to 53 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts.
It gets even better, too. The Raiders have been remarkably inept against quarterbacks in neutral game scripts, allowing them to complete 56 of 67 passes (83.6%) for 641 yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Therefore, Mahomes should air it out early and often against the Raiders, enhancing his odds of throwing multiple touchdowns.
Additionally, the tendencies for both teams near the end zone have been encouraging. The Chiefs have attempted 10 passes inside the five-yard line, completing eight with six for touchdowns. Kansas City has also attempted eight rushes, fewer than their total for passes in that area of the field.
Meanwhile, Las Vegas’s opponents have attempted 10 passes inside the five-yard line, throwing four touchdowns. So, while Mahomes can pass for deep touchdowns, he’s likely to continue throwing on Las Vegas’s doorstep.
Finally, the Chiefs have an implied total of 29.25 points. So, I like Mahomes’s odds of throwing at least three touchdowns on Monday night, a feat he’s accomplished twice this year.
Where to bet: Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns | +140 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Travis Kelce Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
I’ve already produced Kansas City’s pass-happy tendencies and Las Vegas’s ineptitude in defending the pass. Still, there’s more. According to Football Outsiders, the Raiders are 22nd in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Per Pro-Football-Reference, the Raiders have also allowed the 11th-most passing yards per game (253.8). So, Mahomes should light them up.
And if Mahomes is thriving, Travis Kelce will probably enjoy success. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Kelce leads the Chiefs in routes (142), targets (34), receptions (26), and receiving yards (322). The superstar tight end has also gone over 70.5 receiving yards twice this season.
Kelce has a golden opportunity to best 70.5 yards again this week in a plus matchup. According to Football Outsiders, the Raiders have allowed 56.4 receiving yards per game to tight ends, and they’ve faced a mediocre collection of them to date. Though, Zach Ertz had 75 yards against them. So, the more talented Kelce should give them fits.
Where to bet: Travis Kelce Over 70.5 Receiving Yards | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Josh Jacobs Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
I’ll admit it. I didn’t expect Josh Jacobs to be a bell-cow back this year. Moreover, I honestly didn’t believe he’d have a role in the passing attack after the team signed Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden in free agency. New head coach Josh McDaniels has predominantly used committee backfields with a pass-catching specialist. He’s bucked his trends and leaned into Jacobs as a three-down back this year.
Jacobs has run 85 routes compared to 35 for Bolden and 17 for Abdullah this year. Jacobs has also been targeted on a stellar 15.3% of his routes, reeling in 12 receptions for 90 yards. In addition, Jacobs has put his best foot forward most recently, totaling 62 yards on 10 receptions in the past two weeks.
He has an excellent chance to maintain his momentum against the Chiefs. First, the Raiders will likely be in catch-up mode. Second, Kansas City’s been killed by backs in the passing game. In fact, they’ve allowed the most receiving yards per game (70.2) to running backs this year. So, gamblers should feel good about hopping on over 18.5 receiving yards for Jacobs.
Where to bet: Josh Jacobs Over 18.5 Receiving Yards | -120 at DraftKings Sportsbook