Each weekday, Props.com selects five intriguing player and/or team NBA props from a busy night of action. Then, we do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
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With that, let’s dive into our top NBA Props for Monday’s nine-game slate.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook updated as of 12 p.m. ET on Mar. 14.
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Oklahoma City Thunder: PF Darius Bazley
The prop: 13.5 points
The odds: Over -110/Under -115
The Thunder have reached the point in the year where they are only playing for an improved lottery position. Oklahoma City currently owns the fourth-worst record in basketball, presenting a 12% chance at the No. 1 overall pick. If the Thunder were to finish with one of the three worst records, those odds would improve to 14.5%.
What does that have to do with Bazley? It could have a significant impact on his playing time. Bazley’s game log is extremely inconsistent from a minutes perspective. He played 38.5 minutes in OKC’s last game – a seven-point loss to the Grizzlies – but less than 22 minutes three games ago.
Bazley is coming off a big performance in his last outing, which makes this the right time to sell high. He’s averaged just 10.0 points per game this season, and he’s scored less than 14 points in 41 of 62 games. Look towards Under 13.5 points against the Hornets this evening.
Chicago Bulls: PG Ayo Dosunmu
The prop: 4.5 assists
The odds: Over -105/Under -130
Dosunmu has been a pleasant surprise for the Bulls, who have leaned on the second-round rookie from Illinois more than expected. However, the Bulls are starting to get a bit healthier in the backcourt. Alex Caruso returned to the lineup following an extended absence, and he immediately played 29.2 minutes vs. the Cavaliers. That didn’t have a huge impact on Dosunmu, but the Bulls were without Zach LaVine in that contest. LaVine is questionable for Monday’s matchup vs. the Kings, and Dosunmu’s playing time could take a significant hit if LaVine suits up.
Most of Dosunmu’s damage this season has come in games without LaVine and Caruso. He’s averaged 7.1 assists per game in seven contests without both players, but he’s averaged just 3.3 assists per game in general. This number is simply too high if LaVine is back in the lineup, even in a great matchup vs. the Kings.
Sacramento Kings: SF/PF Harrison Barnes
The prop: 5.5 rebounds
The odds: Over +115/Under -155
You have to feel bad for Kings fans. The bottom of the Western Conference is worse than at any point in recent memory, and the team wants nothing more than to compete for a spot in the play-in tournament. They made a big swing by trading Tyrese Haliburton for Domantas Sabonis, but it hasn’t helped a lick. The Kings are currently in 13th place in the Western Conference, which puts them behind two teams that couldn’t care less in the Blazers and Spurs. The Lakers have gone just 3-7 over their past 10 games, and the Kings have actually lost ground in the standings.
Still, the fact that this team is still actively trying to win games makes Barnes an interesting option in the prop market. He has been mediocre on the glass recently, pulling down five boards or fewer in each of his past eight games, but he’s still seeing a ton of playing time. He’s averaged 37.7 minutes over his past five contests, and Barnes has averaged 6.2 rebounds per 36 minutes this season.
That makes Barnes a nice buy-low option vs. the Bulls. They’ve been average on the glass this season, ranking just 15th in team rebound rate, and the Kings have played at the fifth-fastest pace over their past 10 games. The over is available at +115 on DraftKings Sportsbook, and that’s an appealing number.
Golden State Warriors: PG Stephen Curry
The prop: 3.5 made 3-pointers
The odds: Over -105/Under -120
Curry was technically in the lineup for the Warriors on Saturday, but he was seemingly out there solely for the exercise. The Warriors didn’t need him in a blowout win over the Bucks, and Curry attempted just seven shots over his 33.2 minutes. That was his first game this season with single-digit shot attempts. Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole did most of the damage, finishing with a combined 68 points and 13 3-pointers.
It’s been a down year for Curry from behind the arc, who has made a career-low 37.8% of his 3-point attempts. Still, he’s averaged 4.5 made 3-pointers per game, so 3.5 feels like a good number to hit the over. He’s drilled at least four 3-pointers in 41 of 62 games, so -105 is a steal.
Milwaukee Bucks: SG/SF Grayson Allen
The prop: 9.5 points
The odds: Over +100/Under -125
Allen is arguably the most unlikable player in basketball at the moment. Not only did he go to Duke and possess one of the most punchable faces in the league, but he also has a history of dirty play.
However, the Bucks need Allen at the moment. They’re currently without Pat Connaughton, leaving the team a bit undermanned on the wing. Allen has averaged 29.8 minutes over his past four games, and he’s scored at least 10 points in each of his past three. As bad as it may feel, locking in a wager on Allen is +EV on Monday.