“You can’t win the division in April, but you can lose it.” Dumb baseball aphorism is dumb. The Yankees and Blue Jays play each other 19 times in 2022, and it all starts tonight in the Bronx in what is the arguably the best matchup on the Monday MLB odds board.
Given the preseason expectations — and rosters — of both teams, it’s not a stretch that the Blue Jays-Yankees season series will decide the AL East. Props.com breaks down the opener of a four-game series that is, if not all the marbles, let’s say a meaningful plurality of marbles. Rolls off the tongue.
At the risk of revealing our East Coast bias, our Monday MLB odds preview also includes an NL East showdown, as the Mets and Phillies hook up for the first time this season.
Odds via WynnBet and updated as of 5:45 p.m. ET.
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
First pitch/TV: 7:05 p.m. ET/YES Network
Toronto: 2-1 (2-1 O/U)
New York: 2-1 (1-2 O/U)
Moneyline/Run Line/Total: Yankees -113/Yankees -1.5 +165/9 (Under -115)
The starters: TOR Alek Manoah (2021): 9-2, 111.2 IP, 127 SO, 3.80 FIP… NYY Jameson Taillon (2021): 8-6 144.1 IP, 140 SO, 4.43 FIP
2021 Season Series: Toronto went 11-8 against the Yankees, winning five of the last seven matchups overall and each of the last five clashes in Yankee Stadium.
Did you know: The road team went 14-5 in this rivalry last season, winning nine of the final 10 meetings. Also, only four of the 19 contests were one-run games.
How New Yorkers Picture Toronto:
About Toronto: In the opening series against Texas, Toronto rallied from a 7-0 deficit on Opening Day and stole a 10-8 victory, then won a 4-3 affair in the second game. However, in Sunday’s getaway-day contest, the Blue Jays became the Rangers themselves and blew a 6-1 lead en route to a 12-6 loss. Toronto, which led all of MLB with 262 home runs in 2021, picked up bashed seven round-trippers against Texas, with catcher Danny Jansen belting two.
About Alek Manoah: Manoah had a terrific rookie season, giving up two earned runs or fewer in 15 of his 20 starts on the way to finishing eighth in American League Rookie of the Year voting. The right-hander closed the regular season strong, yielding five runs in his last four starts spanning 26.2 innings (1.69 ERA), with 35 strikeouts and nine walks. In two starts against the Yankees, Monah gave up three runs on seven hits and five walks with 11 strikeouts in 11.2 innings. The Jays won both games in New York.
About New York: The Yankees took two of three from blood-rival Boston to open the season, despite holding a lead for all of three innings, which is how you sustain long-term success. Giancarlo “All or Nothing” Stanton lived up to his reputation: In 13 at bats, he had five strikeouts and five hits, two of which flew over the wall. First baseman Anthony Rizzo also had a strong opening series, going 3-for-10 with two homers and six RBI.
About Jameson Taillon: Taillon’s 2021 season is best described in three chunks: In 15 starts through June, he was 3-4 with a 5.43 ERA. The right-hander then went 4-0- with a 1.16 ERA in five July outings, but closed 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA in his final nine trips to the hill. In three starts against the Blue Jays last year, Taillon coughed up nine runs in 13 innings (6.23 ERA). The Yankees went 1-2.
Injuries: Toronto has no key injuries of note. … Yankees C Ben Rortvedt (oblique) remains on the 10-day injured list will be back sometime this month from his oblique strain.
Notable Trends
- Toronto went 5-0 in its last five games as an underdog last season
- Toronto went 12-5 in its last 17 road games last season
- New York is 6-2 in its last eight home games dating to last season
- New York is 7-3 in its last 10 against right-handed starters
- Over is 4-1 in Toronto’s last five overall
- Toronto is averaging 6.67 runs/game and allowing 7.67 runs/game
- New York is averaging 4.33 runs/game and allowing 3.67 runs/game
- Under was 6-0 in Toronto’s final six road games last season
- Under went 12-6-1 in last year’s Blue Jays-Yankees matchups
Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Odds & Action
UPDATE 5:45 P.M. ET: WynnBet opened the Yankees as modest -110 favorites, with the Blue Jays even money in the Monday MLB odds market. Late Sunday night, the moneyline dipped to a -105 pick ’em, then late this morning reached a peak of Yankees -118. Eighty minutes before game time, New York is -113 while getting 53% of bets and 63% of dollars. The total opened at 9.5 and by this morning dipped to 9 (Under -115), where it sits now. The Over is nabbing 69% of bets, but 54% of cash is on the Under.
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET: This game hit FanDuel’s Monday MLB odds board as essentially a pick ’em, with the Blue Jays a slight -110 favorite and New York -106 on the buyback on Sunday. Late Sunday night, it went to dead even at -108/-108, then the Yankees took over as the favorite, going from -112 to -116 to the current number of -120. Except for a brief trip to 9.5 early Monday morning, the total has been steady at 9, with slight juice currently on the Under at -115.
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies
First Pitch/TV: 6:45 p.m. ET/MLB.TV
Mets: 3-1 (1-3 O/U)
Phillies: 2-1 (1-2 O/U)
Moneyline/Run Line/Total: Phillies -140/Phillies -1.5 (+135)/9 (Over -120)
Pitching Matchup: NYM Taijuan Walker (2021): 7-11, 4.47 ERA, 146 Ks, 55 BBs, 4.57 FIP …PHI Ranger Suarez (2021): 8-5, 1.36 ERA, 107 Ks, 33 BBs, 2.72 FIP
2021 Season Series: The Phillies went 10-9 against New York last season, winning six of the last seven meetings.
Did you know: The Under was 8-1-1 in the last 10 Mets-Phillies battles in 2021. Only four of the 19 season meetings featured more than eight combined runs, with three of the four taking place in New York.
About New York: The Mets opened the season with three straight wins at Washington by the combined score of 17-4. However, they were unable to complete the four-game sweep, falling 4-2 in Sunday’s series finale. Three of the four contests stayed Under the total. Outfielders Jeff McNeil (7-for-16, HR, 3 RBI) and Mark Canha (7-for-10, 2 RBI) are off to hot starts at the plate.
About Taijuan Walker: The right-hander had a spectacular first half of 2021, going 7-3 in 17 games (16 starts) with a 2.66 ERA and 95 strikeouts in 94 2/3 innings. He fell off the cliff from there, though, going 0-8 with a 7.13 ERA over his final 13 starts with 51 strikeouts in 64.1 innings. Walker was 0-2 with a 3.76 ERA in five starts against the Phillies last season (0-1, 5.25 ERA in two starts at Philadelphia).
About Philadelphia: The Phillies opened the season with two home victories over Oakland (9-5 and 4-2), but they produced just three hits against five A’s pitchers Sunday, losing 4-1. Veteran second baseman Jean Segura went 4-for-11 with two homers in the series but reigning National League MVP Bryce Harper is off to a 1-for-11 start.
About Rangers Suarez: The southpaw was outstanding over his final eight starts last season, posting a 1.24 ERA across 51 innings. He gave up two runs or fewer in all eight contests while pitching into the sixth inning seven times. In his last two starts against the Pirates and Marlines, Suarez tossed 16 scoreless innings, yielding 10 hits and a walk while striking out 16. Suarez was 0-1 with a 1.93 ERA in three games (one start) versus the Mets in 2021.
Injuries: Walker was dealing with a sore right knee this spring but is slated to start Monday. However, right-handed closer Edwin Diaz (bereavement list) is out. Also, right-handed RP Jake Reed (oblique) remains on the 10-day injured list. … Philadelphia remains without starting center fielder Odubel Herrera (oblique, 10-day IL) and right-handed RP Sam Coonrod (shoulder, 10-day IL. Herrera is on a rehab assignment and close to returning.
Notable Trends
- New York is 8-3 in its last 11 against NL East rivals
- New York is 17-41 in its last 58 road games vs. left-handed starters
- Philadelphia is 7-2 in its last nine home games
- Philadelphia is 5-2 in its last seven home games vs. New York
- Under is 3-0 in Walker’s last three starts vs. Philadelphia
- Under is 9-2 in Suarez’s last 11 starts overall (6-2 at home)
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Odds and Action
UPDATE 5:45 P.M. ET: An hour before first pitch, the Phillies are -140 on WynnBet’s Monday MLB odds board, up slightly from a -137 opener but below high points of -154 this morning and -152 mid-afternoon. Philadelphia is taking 64% of tickets, but money is almost dead even. Since opening Sunday, the total has been at various iterations of 9, with the Over going from -120 to -115, then to -125 before backing up a nickel to -120. The Over is seeing 53% of tickets/71% of money.