The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Friday, Sept. 9
Brayan Bello: Boston Red Sox
Matchup: Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles | 7:05 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.91 ERA indicates
Bello has struggled in limited innings throughout his rookie season. He owns a 1-4 record with a 5.91 ERA through 8 games (6 starts). His xFIP sits at 4.00, though, suggesting he’s gotten extremely unlucky this season.
Bello has certainly seen mixed results this season, which isn’t shocking for a rookie. He’s posted 3.42 and 1.50 xFIPs in two of his last three starts. He recorded a 6.21 xFIP in the third game, though.
Bello gets a tough matchup against the Baltimore Orioles tonight. They’ve been struggling recently, posting a .294 team wOBA over the last 14 days. With that being said, Baltimore’s a hitter-friendly stadium, and they’ve found quite a bit of success at home this season.
Bottom Line: If this game were in Boston, I’d feel good about Bello. I think he can find success in this matchup, but I believe he comes with significantly more risk on the road tonight.
Lucas Giolito: Chicago White Sox
Matchup: Chicago White Sox at Oakland A’s | 9:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.21 ERA suggests
Giolito has struggled quite a bit this season, and he’s consistently found himself in this article. He’s posted a 10-9 record with a 5.21 ERA through 25 starts. He’s been extremely unlucky, though, as he owns a 3.68 xFIP with a .354 BABIP.
Giolito has seen mixed results in recent games. Oddly enough, he’s struggled when his advanced metrics look great and he’s found positive regression when his advanced metrics look bad.
Giolito gets a solid matchup against the Oakland A’s tonight. They’ve struggled with a .288 team wOBA over the last 14 days. This game will also be played in an extremely pitcher-friendly stadium, which will help the right-hander.
Bottom Line: Giolito has been a high-end arm for years, and his advanced metrics look completely normal. He gets a plus matchup tonight, and I’m expecting him to find plenty of success in this game.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today – Top MLB Player Props (Daily Picks)
Lance McCullers: Houston Astros
Matchup: Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros | 8:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.08 ERA suggests
McCullers has only thrown in 4 games this season. He’s looked outstanding with a 2-1 record and a 2.08 ERA through 21.2 innings. With that being said, his 4.43 xFIP tells a different story.
McCullers’ best xFIP was 3.99 and came against the Atlanta Braves. He’s recorded as low as a 5.00 xFIP against the Baltimore Orioles in his limited starts this season. Although he’s found plenty of success, his advanced metrics have left much to be desired in each of his four starts.
McCullers gets an interesting matchup against the Los Angeles Angels tonight. For a while, they were an easy offense to target. They’ve been heating up now, though, as they quietly own a .331 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: This is a situation where I don’t trust either side. McCullers is due for regression, but the Angels were bad for so long that it’s impossible to trust their offense.
