The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Wednesday, Sept. 7
Trevor Rogers: Miami Marlins
Matchup: Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies | 6:45 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.57 ERA indicates
Rogers has struggled quite a bit throughout the season. He owns a 4-10 record with a 5.57 ERA through 20 starts. He’s throwing better than those numbers suggest, though, as he also owns a 4.36 xFIP.
Rogers struggled quite a bit earlier in the season, but he’s been throwing better recently. He’s posted an xFIP under 3.50 in 3 of his last 4 starts. He also flashed quite a bit, recording a 1.50 xFIP earlier in the season against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Rogers gets a tough matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. They boast a .333 team wOBA over the last 14 days. This game will also be played in a hitter-friendly stadium tonight.
Bottom Line: Rogers is due for positive regression, and he’s throwing well at the moment. This is a tough matchup, though, and it’s impossible to trust Rogers in this game.
Alex Cobb: San Francisco Giants
Matchup: San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers | 4:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 3.58 ERA suggests
Cobb has surprisingly struggled at times this season. He’s recorded a 5-6 record with a 3.58 ERA through 22 starts. He also boasts an elite 2.80 xFIP through 118 innings.
Cobb has been a dominant option in recent games as well. He’s posted 2.17, 2.10, and 2.65 xFIPs over his last 3 starts. He has allowed an earned run over his last 12 innings.
Cobb gets a terrible matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight. They feature one of the best offenses in the MLB, and they’ve posted a .346 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Cobb is in a similar position to Rogers, although he’s a better pitcher. Still, it’s difficult to trust him in this type of matchup, even with the elite advanced metrics.
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Dean Kremer: Baltimore Orioles
Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles | 7:05 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.22 ERA suggests
Kremer has seen mixed results throughout the season, although he’s been significantly more successful than many were expecting. He owns a 6-4 record with a 3.22 ERA through 16 starts. He’s also posted a 4.09 xFIP, suggesting he’s due for some regression.
Kremer has quietly seen surprising results in terms of advanced metrics in recent starts. He’s posted an xFIP under 4.00 in each of his last 5 games after doing so in only 2 of his first 9 starts this season.
Kremer gets a tough matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays tonight. They feature a high-upside offense, and they own a .323 team wOBA over the last 14 days. They come with tremendous upside in a hitter-friendly stadium.
Bottom Line: Kremer has been throwing better, but I don’t expect him to find all that success against Toronto tonight.