The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Tuesday, Sept. 6
Wade Miley: Chicago Cubs
Matchup: Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs | 7:40 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.84 ERA indicates
Miley has thrown in very limited innings this season. He owns a 1-0 record with a 2.84 ERA through 4 starts. He’s also posted a 4.51 xFIP, suggesting he’ll find some regression soon.
Miley recorded one great start against the Pittsburgh Pirates, posting a 2.24 xFIP over 7 innings. Outside of that span, he’s recorded 5.74, 4.83, and 7.94 xFIPs. It suggests that he isn’t throwing nearly as well as his baseline metrics indicate.
Miley gets an interesting matchup against the Cincinnati Reds. They boast a .321 team wOBA over the last 14 days. They’ve also found plenty of success against left-handed pitching throughout the season.
Bottom Line: Miley is volatile because of his limited innings, but he isn’t throwing at a high level. Cincinnati has the ability to get to him in this start.
Kyle Bradish: Baltimore Orioles
Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles | 7:05 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.17 ERA suggests
Bradish has struggled quite a bit throughout his rookie season. He’s posted a 3-5 record with a 5.17 ERA through 17 starts. He also owns a solid 3.98 xFIP, though, and he’s due for positive regression.
Bradish certainly isn’t untouchable, and he’s struggled a bit in recent games. He owns 4.44 and 4.21 xFIPs over his last 2 starts without giving up any earned runs. This is the positive regression he’s finding.
Bradish gets a matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays tonight. This will be the fourth time he’s facing off against them in 2022, and he’s seen mixed results against them thus far.
Bottom Line: Bradish is due for more positive regression, but I’m not sure this is the matchup you want to attack him in. Toronto comes with more than enough upside to get to any pitcher in the MLB.
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Johnny Cueto: Chicago White Sox
Matchup: Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners | 9:40 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.93 ERA suggests
Here we go again. Cueto enters this game with a 7-6 record and a 2.93 ERA through 20 games (19 starts). His xFIP isn’t nearly as good, though, as it sits at 4.28.
Cueto is coming off of a gem against the Kansas City Royals, but he was struggling prior to that. He posted 5.96, 4.86, and 5.13 xFIPs in his three starts before dominating Kansas City. It’s only a matter of time before his numbers catch up to him.
Cueto gets an interesting matchup tonight. He’ll face off against the Seattle Mariners, who haven’t been playing overly well in recent games. The right-hander will also benefit from playing in a pitcher-friendly stadium tonight.
Bottom Line: Cueto gets a matchup against a team with a boom or bust offense tonight. He’ll benefit greatly from the pitcher-friendly stadium, but I still favor Seattle here.
